To Get Ready for the upcoming Michael Frazier non-slump

Discussion in 'Nuttin' but Net' started by InstiGATOR1, Oct 21, 2013.

  1. InstiGATOR1
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    InstiGATOR1 Well-Known Member

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    I found the below and thought of Michael Frazier this year. Here is an excerpt from Ken Pommeroy's article:

    Here is the link to the rest:

    http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/brady_heslips_non_slump
  2. GatorPlanet
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    GatorPlanet Well-Known Member

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    Sometimes it's a matter of a player being asked by the coaches to just let it fly, when there isn't as much firepower around them. So he might just be taking more low-percentage shots. As a freshman or sophomore, maybe you're told to be selective, but as a junior or senior, maybe the staff wants you to be the gunner if the team needs offense.
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  3. GatorPlanet
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    GatorPlanet Well-Known Member

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    Plus, opposing coaches are going to adjust their game plans to shut you down if you're the main scorer.
  4. InstiGATOR1
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    InstiGATOR1 Well-Known Member

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    Yes and as Pommeroy says, there is a random component to shooting. So it is not surprising that Kenny Boynton would have a 40% shooting year from the arc even if his true ability is more like 37.5%.
  5. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    Certainly could be, but the point of the article states that there really doesn't need to be any reason for variation. If you shoot 40% one season and 41% the next, this doesn't necessarily indicate that anything has changed. We expect these small scale variations just because of the random nature of the event. It turns out that shooting 45% one season and then 40% the next might also within the random vibrations.

    Now Frazier may also be asked to change his approach to 3s, which might also be expected to alter his success rate in one way or the other, but regardless, if he is shooting above 40%, we should assume that he is fine.
  6. samit23
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    samit23 Well-Known Member

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    Or changes on shooting percentages from year to year can be attributed to other no shooting factors, I.e., minutes, conditioning, number of attempts, quality looks, defending certain opponents, etc.

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  7. themistocles
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    themistocles Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, my concept of a slump, derived from over 50 years of observation, is that you are having a real difficult time doing what you used to do well. Like a drop from a 40% 3-point percentage to a 15% hit rate, not 45-38, as you all noted, frequently they are taking lower percentage shots.

    We will likely see Frazier hit below his Freshman 46.8% now that he is the go-to-guy if for no other reason than the fact that opposing defense will concentrate on him around the 3-point stripe.
  8. GatorPlanet
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    GatorPlanet Well-Known Member

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    On the other hand, to paraphrase Yogi Berra, shooting slumps are 90% mental, the other half is physical.
  9. tampajack1
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    tampajack1 VIP Member

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    Your math sucks. 90% + 50% = 140%. Didn't you mean 90% mental and the other third is physical.
  10. DoctorGator
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    DoctorGator Well-Known Member

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    I see what you did there.

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