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Discussion in 'Swamp Gas' started by SavageGator, Sep 3, 2013.
So we're a 3 point favorite?
I don't think lines are hugely valid the first weeks of any season.
You probably right, but it's still good for conversation/debate.
Certainly computers aren't as accurate until they have data on the specific iterations of the team they are predicting.
On a slightly related note, I read a analysis recently (I wish I could remember where, KenPom?) that showed that preseason polls are actually relatively "good". Where the polls really diverge from predictive power is in subsequent weeks where pollsters adopt a simple "lose and drop" approach to revisions.
The objective is to get your money.
Validity and stupidity are two different things.
Robin Hanson makes a convincing argument that prediction markets are actually our best options for making valid predictions. The thing with Vegas is that the spreads aren't based on people betting against Vegas. They are betting against each other. It is one thing to make a vocal prediction on a message board, but it is quite another to make a prediction with your own money on the line.