The Missing--Effects of Trump's Immigration Crackdown

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by AzCatFan, Feb 14, 2018.

  1. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan GC Hall of Fame

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    Interesting 8+ minute video done by the BBC that chronicles a small, fishing town on the Washington coast that voted for Trump but are now regretting their decision. As they say, all politics are local, and the testimony from the Sheriff who thought Trump's rhetoric was great until it hit home is telling.

    Will be interesting if they revisited in a year to see if the local economy is struggling because there aren't enough people to do the jobs needed. And again revisit later to see if the 2.5% of students lost in the system has a longer, lasting effect on the town.
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  2. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    As previously stated, since there aren't really that many "bad hombres" Trump's ICE has started deporting otherwise productive law-abiding immigrants who are technically deportable.
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  3. gator_fever

    gator_fever GC Hall of Fame

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    The truth is Trump hasn't really changed the enforcement priorities much when it comes to deportations except for really focusing on gang members etc. These sad cases the news likes to play up now that Trump is POTUS happened under Obama also. I think in Trump's first year in office there was only 10% more deportations of crime free illegal aliens that the courts had already ordered deportation than under Obama's last year in office.
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  4. NavyGator93

    NavyGator93 GC Hall of Fame

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    Without borders, there is no nation.

    I believe in strong border security but it will interesting to see how all this impacts the economy. Many people/companies have come to rely on cheap labor.
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  5. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan GC Hall of Fame

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    We have the longest, unguarded border in the world with Canada. The USA and Canada are both distinct, proud nations. Your first statement is rhetoric with little basis in reality.

    And the cheap labor? We've been relying on it for generations. Immigrants came over here legally through the Bracero Program from WWII through 1963. The policy in the 60's and 70's was to allow anyone coming here to work without any real hassle, and it wasn't until the rise in drug use and more specifically, drug cartels in the 80's did anyone really pay attention to illegal border crossings from Mexico. And we've already seen what happens when there are immigrant labor shortages on the state level when several states attempted to pass their own immigration laws.
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  6. NavyGator93

    NavyGator93 GC Hall of Fame

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    Yes rhetoric, I was paraphrasing Reagan but it holds value.
    As you note yourself when discussing the changes in the 80's, times have changed. I don't think a wall is a useful idea but more money for electronic enforcement, judges and ICE I can get behind.
    It will hurt economy but it won't be a fatal blow. Somewhere between the far left and the far right, we should be able to find a solution.
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  7. Gatorrick22

    Gatorrick22 VIP Member

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    Lol... Trump didn't write the immigration laws... So, again now foreign news hacks are getting into BS propaganda.
  8. gator_lawyer

    gator_lawyer Premium Member

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    But Trump is responsible for how they're enforced.
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  9. Gatorrick22

    Gatorrick22 VIP Member

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    So, you're still blaming Trump for LAWS that someone else wrote. And so you're against enforcing laws? Good I'm coming over to your house and taking what the Eff I want, because I don't like those laws... :D;) Just kidding, but you get the point.

    Laws are laws, if you want to change them then that's fine, but ignoring them is wrong and a seriously slippery slope.
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  10. NavyGator93

    NavyGator93 GC Hall of Fame

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    Forgot to mention Canada. You can think of that border as a semipermeable membrane in an osmosis process. The solutions are the same on both sides (standards of living) so you will not see much transfer.
    That being said, if/when we have another serious terrorist event, it wouldn't surprise me if they came via Canada.
  11. gator_lawyer

    gator_lawyer Premium Member

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    No, I'm blaming Trump for using his discretion poorly in enforcing the law. I speed every day. I'd be annoyed at a cop for pulling people over for exceeding the speed limit by 1 mph. He has the discretion.to do that, but it doesn't mean he's right to do so or smart to do so.
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  12. Gatorrick22

    Gatorrick22 VIP Member

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    I don't like some laws too, but we all have to live by them. But I do agree that good law abiding people's, that are here illegally, should not be perused when there are so many bad guys that are on the streets and here illegally that should get the cop's full attention. I blame the police departments that make that judgement call to go after law abiding workers that have done nothing wrong. Now I also draw a distinction between two different types if illegals. One that overstays a legal visit as opposed to those that sneak in totally illegally... maybe even with contraband. But I'm sure there is no difference in the vague and outdated immigration laws. We need to revise these laws either way.
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  13. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan GC Hall of Fame

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    The solution is a Gang of 8 style plan that increases the guest worker program. Take the money from the guest visas and use it to enforce the border. But it may not be so necessary if instead of a free-for-all crossing through the open desert, if those that qualify as guest workers (no prior criminal record) could emigrate through urban processing centers.

    And Trump is to blame. He released a lot of the restrictions in terms of enforcement that Obama had. The result is people who wouldn't be targeted by ICE under Obama is now low hanging fruit under Trump.
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  14. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    If Congress was able to vote on a comprehensive immigration reform bill and the President would be willing to sign it, we could have reasonable legislation very soon. McConnell may actually allow comprehensive legislation to come to the floor of the Senate. The chances that Ryan would allow comprehensive immigration reform to come to the floor of the House are extremely slim and even if by some miracle Congress actually passes legislation it is almost certain that the Dear Leader would veto it if it doesn't contain every provision that he wants.
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  15. NavyGator93

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    So, a question for you guys on both side of the debate.
    Often you will hear the hard corp 2A people state that we don't need new laws, we just need to enforce the ones we have.
    My question is "are we enforcing the laws we have with immigration"? It would seem to me that illegal immigration would drastically drop if the bulk of the jobs dried up. Who is hiring these people and why can't it be stopped? It can't just be the local farmer hiring one or two immigrants. Can we fine the crap out of whoever is hiring?

    One part of the company I work for hires lower wage employees and it has decent turnover. I-9 compliance for us is a huge deal and we have processes in place to make sure on site management is hiring only those allowed to by law.
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  16. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan GC Hall of Fame

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    If the jobs dried up, it would hurt the businesses that hire them, since it's unlikely they will find suitable replacements. And yes, most immigrants live in urban areas, and here's the jobs they have:

    [​IMG]

    Looks like construction work, agricultural work, and bottom line factory work/textiles.

    And sure, we could fine the crap out of the businesses that hire illegals, but those costs would only be moved on to the consumer, assuming the business could survive the lack of labor plus massive fines. That would add to the inflation of not having enough workers to fill jobs, which we've already seen in some areas.

    This is short term. Long term isn't pleasant either. Ending DACA could cause $280 billion lost in the next decade.
  17. NavyGator93

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    Informative response. You assume they wouldn't be able to find suitable replacements. They may be able to, just wouldn't be as cheap. While the replacements may not be able to be easily found now given the unemployment numbers, those numbers change much faster than immigration numbers change. Also, there are businesses out there right now not hiring illegal immigrants (such as mine). Why should i have to compete against someone not following the law? As far as fines being passed to the consumer, so what? Should we have given Wells Fargo a pass since they will no doubt pass that on to their customers?

    Lastly, I wasn't talking about DACA. It isn't illegal to hire someone in the DACA program (at least I don't think so).
  18. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan GC Hall of Fame

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    So what? Double digit inflation is not good for the country. Higher fines and higher labor costs equal inflation. Throw in potential shortages for things like food, where 50% - 70% of crops are picked by immigrants, any drop in production/supply will also lead to higher prices.

    And yes, unemployment can change, but as unemployment goes, so does our demand for immigrant labor. It's why in around 2008, there were about 12 million undocumented immigrants. By 2011, that number dropped to around 10 million. And since 2012, the number has steadied to around 11 million.
  19. g8orbill

    g8orbill Old Gator VIP Member

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    the most interesting thing about all this to me is how the press is constantly looking for some way or someone to say how bad Trump's illegal immigration edict or any other edict is affecting where they live-it appears to me to be a coordinated effort on the media's part to find every little story it can find to discredit anything prezdt says or does- the bbc would be better served writing about the muslim issues that exist in Great Britain than worrying about the US
  20. NavyGator93

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    The BBC can generally cover more than one topic at a time. They are fairly balanced, I appreciate that they look out side their own country, we could probably take a page from that.
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