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Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by FoxGator, Sep 3, 2013.
I thought this was an interesting read:
The Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935
Estimating 9000 deaths if that storm hit in 2013 seems a little bit like overhyping things too. There is much better infrastructure and much more early warning than in 1935. Katrina was at about 1800 deaths, and that hit a major city, and caused flooding of it. Plus there are so many other variables. The 1928 hurricane (which I dont think was as strong) killed about 2,500 in South Florida mostly because of flooding and overflowing lakes/dikes.
and katrina confirmed that people heed the early warnings, almost 100% of the time, and that narlins' infrastructure whipped mother natures arse
Many people did heed those warnings. The death toll from Katrina was about 1800. It was certainly shocking, but 9000 deaths from a hurricane would be unprecendented in the 21st century US.
The estimate is from the National Hurricane Center. Are you saying that government agencies overhype things? This is a trap question, be careful with your answer!
18 foot storm surge in Tampa Bay could kill 9,000.
Not that hard to imagine as low lying as most of that area is. Also unless there was significant warning and mandatory evacs, no way everyone goes.
Why downplay how bad a storm of this size could be anyway? Just to argue?
I have no idea what their methodology was in arriving at that estimate, maybe all they did was account for population growth and multiply, which seems somewhat pointless. There's no link in the article to source it or check it out. At face value, it seems rather high given that the most deadly (recorded) hurricane to hit the US killed anywhere from 8000-12000 in 1900, and the next most deadly was 2,500.
Just questioning throwing out a number like 9000, seems insanely high. And this is Too Hot right? :joecool:
True but it just seems rather petty.
So. You admit that you have no idea, although you assume that it is overhyped. Got it! I'm just having fun here, no malice intended. I told you it was a trap question.
One of my great-uncles died during that hurricane. He was building the Overseas Railroad.
The destructive power of a hurricane in human costs has more to do with the state of human affairs at the time than anything else. The Galveston hurricane of 1900 killed over 8000 people and remains the deadliest of all time simply because nobody knew it was coming. One young meteorologist had a foreboding and was trying to warn people to get out, but he was scoffed at by his superiors.
But now, even though we know more than ever about them, coastlines are crowded with people and shutting down the entire economy of such populated areas makes the call to evacuate more expensive than ever. The same death toll could take place again.
I think the storm also went from a cat 1 to a cat 5 in 24 hours. That probably is affecting their casualty estimates, lots of keys residents don't want to leave for a cat 1, and then all of a sudden the storm blows up into a monster and they are stuck.
A friend of mine's father told us about this hurricane when we were teenagers. He helped pull the bodies out of the war and told us about things like 2x4s driven through trees by the force of the wind.
must have been due to global warming increasing the intensity of the storm
If you look at the storm track, you'll see that it ravaged the entire west coast peninsula of Florida. Due to the high population of these areas, not everyone would be able to get out despite early warnings. I think the 9,000 is probably not unreasonable when all circumstances are considered. Moon phase and whether the storm hit at high or low tide would be major variables that would have a dramatic impact on the outcome.
I just hope we don't find out
I noticed that in the track too; it looks like it pummeled pretty much the entire gulf coast of florida. I'll have to talk to my dad about that; in 1935 he would have been a six year old living in Cedar Key.
The global warming point of the article is interesting also; the two most powerful hurricanes of this century in the southeast took place in 1935 and 1969, when global warming would not have been implicated.
Ironically, I heard on the news tonight that this is the first time we have gone 3 full months into hurricane season without a named hurricane since 2002. During the satellite era of weather monitoring, the latest a named hurricane formed was Sept 11, 2002 when Gustav grew to hurricane status. This current storm out there now is pushing for the record of being latest to form within a season....IF it turns into a hurricane at all.
Climate change and all its horror....:wink: