The GOP Can't Survive Without the Tea Party

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by mocgator, Oct 16, 2013.

  1. mocgator
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    mocgator Well-Known Member

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    The GOP must embrace its base... or the RINO's will be punted one by one...

    http://www.newrepublic.com/article/115189/gop-cant-survive-without-tea-party

    If Republicans think they have a pathway to victory without the tea party, they’re sorely mistaken. The tea party is not some small, fringe element of the Republican coalition. It's not the Buchanan 2000 vote, or something. The tea party is the Republican Party, at least as much as any single constituency can claim, with the possible and overlapping exception of Evangelicals.

    According to a July Pew Research survey, Tea Party Republicans make up nearly half (49 percent) of the Republican primary electorate and fully 37 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaners. So long as Democrats remain modestly unified, it is not conceivable that Republicans could compensate for the loss of anything near 37 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaners with gains among moderates and independents. Once a Republican realized there aren’t enough opportunities to win without the tea party, the centrist fantasy would come to an end. Republicans would immediately tack back to their right, in an effort to consolidate the Republican coalition.
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  2. g8trjax
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    g8trjax Well-Known Member

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    One could hope anyway.
  3. oldgator
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    oldgator Premium Member

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    then chances are the GOP is screwed anyway since TP is screwing up the GOP.

    like any petulent child, TP has a my way or the high way attitude that does not lend itself to working with others of same general political party
  4. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    The mistake here is thinking there's some unified GOP/Tea Party scenario. They're essentially two different parties represented by the same people parroting different things at different times.
  5. wgbgator
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    wgbgator Sub-optimal Poster Premium Member

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    Yeah, the GOP needs them #s wise to be electorally viable in almost any national race. At the same time, the Tea Party doesnt really care about the viability of the Republican Party nationally, especially if that means toning down the conservativism. It's a bit of a pickle.
  6. channingcrowderhungry
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    channingcrowderhungry Well-Known Member

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    I don't think it's a pickle as much as it is a changing of the guard. TP is the future of the GOP, or the GOP will disappear as we know it.
  7. wgbgator
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    wgbgator Sub-optimal Poster Premium Member

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    Maybe they are. But that creates a bit of a seismic shift if that's the case. Does status-quo favoring pro-business money shift to Dems if a TP-flavored GOP can't deliver results nationally? If yes, then what happens within the Democratic party when the Chamber of Commerce starts to cozy-up with D leadership?
  8. MichiGator2002
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    MichiGator2002 VIP Member

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    Let's see how happy the RNC is if they go back to the level of turnout they had in their Congressional races in 2006 and 2008, then maybe it is time for a Wonka meme asking them to tell us more about how the Tea Party is holding them back.
  9. dangolegators
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    dangolegators Well-Known Member

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    If the GOP can't survive without the tea party then the GOP is screwed.
  10. MichiGator2002
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    MichiGator2002 VIP Member

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    Party shifts are seismic and messy -- after a brief run of three parties, the weakest gets pulled apart and we have a new two party system. That will be the GOP, ground to pieces between two more solid objects, the *actual* American left and *actual* American right. You will end up with a, minority at first to be sure, conservative party and a larger quasi-Democrat party assimilating all of Beltway status quo-ists from the GOP.
  11. mdgator05
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    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Can't live with 'em, can't live without 'em.

    The Republican base is moving further and further away from the mainstream. Not many people remember that Mitt Romney was the candidate of the right-wing of the Republican Party in 2008. Jim DeMint endorsed him (along with somewhat of an endorsement of Romneycare). Rush vocally supported Romney as the only candidate that represented all aspect of Conservatism. Putting aside the tendency for Republicans to claim somebody wasn't a "true conservative" after they lose, Romney was considered the moderate in 2012 by much of the Republican base. In a world in which a confirmational media exists, that will tell you exactly what you want to hear truth or not, resulting in ridiculous conspiracy theories gaining major followings (Obama is a super secret Muslim born in Kenya even though his real father is an American Communist), the bases will naturally harden in their ideologies. Unfortunately, those that want to make money off the Republican base have stoked these ridiculous theories for profit, damaging the credibility of the party. When Ann Coulter (another Romney endorser in 2008) starts noticing issues on her side, that is when you know you have a problem.

    If people are rational (which is an underpinning of conservative economic analysis), they are going to pick the candidate that minimizes the ideological distance between their ideology and the ideology of their choice to be President on a weighted multi-dimensional scale (weighted by issue importance). The Republican base moving further and further right on that scale on every issue is going to strain the party's capability of developing a candidate that would win in a world filled with rational-ideology/utility maximizers. As the party splits into two parts, the nominees will go one direction or the other, increasing the distance ideologically to the electorate as a whole and lowering the chance of victory.
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  12. MichiGator2002
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    MichiGator2002 VIP Member

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    Why? Tea party isn't going anywhere. The long term question will be the Tea Party, as it were, being able to survive without the GOP, which really doesn't contribute anything but the campaign apparatus, the infrastructure.
  13. oldgator
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    oldgator Premium Member

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    what could end up happening if moderate GOP can pull it off-----a three party system
    TP---ultra con
    Dem--shifting to be more liberal as at the same time
    GOP--takes more moderate stances on issues and attracts moderates, independents, and even some moderate Dems

    GOP could in effect become a large 3rd party with the ability to gain majority in congress as well as get a POTUS elected

    some moderate Dems(such as myself) would start to look more favorably on the GOP and perhaps switch to voting GOP.

    That would leave TP and Dems fighting for which would become the larger(in voters) of the two parties. The loser of that fight would pretty much get more and more bitter and the party would shrink and fade away.

    The essence of all party politics is to retain your base while at the same time gaining voters by becoming more attractive to those already in the party
  14. HallGator
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    That's a fair assessment. The TP, as many see it now, is not going to be able to take the Reps to the heights I believe some think they will.
  15. MichiGator2002
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    MichiGator2002 VIP Member

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    That mythical GOP will run a unicorn for President. These party fracture mechanics usually go with basic ideological shifts... one breaks, a more polar party replaces it, and the remaining party is sort of pulled in that direction as it noms up the debris. What would happen is the center would move back closer to, well, the center, as it has been skewing left left left for a while. The entire status quo "center" of the Beltway (not the population at large) has existed on the left side of the line for a while , DNC and RNC alike.
  16. MichiGator2002
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    MichiGator2002 VIP Member

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    The Tea Party is the only reason any current House committee chair, whip. Or party leader doesn't have "minority" title jobs.
  17. Gatorrick22
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    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

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    The Tea party is taking the GOP sets one by one, because of the stubbornness of the old school GOP... it's time to embrace the GTP, because big spending go-a-long-to-get-along RINO's/GOP is soon to be long gone...
  18. HallGator
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    I don't know if that is the truth or what people of the TP want to believe. Either way what has been gained can be easily lost again.
  19. dangolegators
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    dangolegators Well-Known Member

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    Based on the initial enthusiasm in 2010, he may be right. The tea party was a factor in the repubs regaining the house. But that enthusiasm, except for the true believers like michi, is long gone. And I think about 75% of the country, and some sizable percentage of republicans, are really turned off by the tea party now.
  20. HallGator
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    Correlation does not always equal causation. It can do so to a certain percentage without being 100% the reason. This country sways back and forth on a regular basis.

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