The betting line

Discussion in 'Swamp Gas' started by SavageGator, Sep 1, 2013.

  1. gator_chomp
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    gator_chomp New Member

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    I know. But how many times is Vegas eerily spot on or really close when it comes to final margins? Quite a lot.
  2. brimley
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    brimley Member

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    Vegas lines are there for a reason, clearly. if they were way off all the time, "betting" wouldn't exist. Point being, I thought the line would be 6.5...but it's not. I think it's a close game (6.5 pts) or UF kills them...hence why I do not make any "lines".
  3. sbcg8r
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    sbcg8r Active Member

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    Guys, do we not understand this yet? Since Louisville beat us, everyone will pick any decent team over us. We have to prove ourselves all over again.

    Sent from my iPhone using GatorCountry
  4. dadx4
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    dadx4 Well-Known Member

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    As we should, that was brutal.
  5. geauxgator1
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    geauxgator1 Well-Known Member

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    We will be in a battle in this game. UM will not go away easy, just hoping for the win.
  6. vegasGatorOUF
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    vegasGatorOUF New Member

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    10 years here and I've never put a penny on a Gator game... For all of the reasoning above.

    Now the Bucs on the other hand...
  7. maxgator
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    maxgator Well-Known Member

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    Of course they are close sometimes. In the end, they reflect the consensus of the betters on both sides.
  8. maxgator
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    maxgator Well-Known Member

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    Good Lord man... much easier to bet on the gators than the bucs!
  9. mulegator
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    mulegator Active Member

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    The line started at 2 points. As of 090613 the Gators are favored by 3.
  10. Gatorrick22
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    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

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    Ground and pound, baby.
  11. maxgator
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    maxgator Well-Known Member

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    That is correct.

    The funny thing is that it is absolute nonsense to say Vegas is spot on (I know you didn't say it).

    Take a look at the covers against the spread last week and tell me about spot on....

    Using vegas insider, the spread was "covered" by 10 points or less in only 34 of 75 games. By that I mean the winning team was within 10 points of the spread. e.g. spread was -15 and winner won by between 5 and 25 points; OR spread was -5 and winner won by no more than 15 or lost by no more than 5.

    If you change it to covering by 5 it is 16/74.

    http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/scoreboard/scores.cfm/week/1/season/2013
  12. neisgator
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    neisgator Belligerent Gator

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    Vegas is always weakest in the first two weeks.
  13. ibgator
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    ibgator Premium Member

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    I think UF wins in a very close one but Miami has better WRs, RB and QB than we do. In our last big game, we were humiliated. Those are the reasons that so many experts are picking UM. I put a little money on UF put don't feel like my bet is in the bag by any means.
  14. GatorJeff
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    GatorJeff Active Member

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    True. After a few weeks, opening lines become more accurate and the football "sharps" (advisors to professional gamblers with lots of money) begin to more fully understand the relative strength of teams and erase any disequilibrium in betting lines with early money or late money. Look for the sharps to bet on the Gators heavily (forcing upward line movement) in the last few hours before kickoff.
  15. danky1313
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    danky1313 Active Member

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    1. Matt Jones ran all over F$U's D last year which was a 100xs better D than Miami's.
    2. Where Morris stats vs. SEC D's last season and how'd he and UM do vs. the 3 teams that were anywhere close to UFs SEC defense ND, FSU and Kansas St.? In fact what good D did Morris put up big numbers against last year?
    3. Coaching a tossup? Are you high? What 11-1 regular season has Golden had beating 4 top 12 teams during it?
  16. HotlantaGator
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    HotlantaGator Well-Known Member

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    24 hours from now, no part of this statement will be true.
  17. gator_chomp
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    gator_chomp New Member

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    guess vegas saw us committing all those turnovers

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