The betting line

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by SavageGator, Sep 1, 2013.

  1. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    It is not that close by any stretch.

    A team that went 7-1 against the SEC versus a team that 5-3 in the ACC.
  2. BengermanV
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    BengermanV Well-Known Member

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    I don't doubt it will be a tight game, but I'm still a little confused as to why Miami is getting so much credit off of a 7-5 season.
  3. mfpardnor2
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    mfpardnor2 Well-Known Member

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    Toledo has a better DL
    Miami's guys look fat and out of shape
  4. ACCecil
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    ACCecil Well-Known Member

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    obob,

    If they were playing last year those stats might be compelling. New year, new team, new game. Miami will need a little help .... TO's, big plays, refs, whatever, ..... or perhaps Miami just plays over their heads and UF brings their B game or maybe UF plays hard but one of your backs drops the ball or Driskell has a bad game or maybe it comes down to a FG and there guy makes it and UF's misses.

    In a one game scenario, anything can happen. The best team doesn't always win. Anyway, good luck. In all honesty, I thought UM's DL looked very normal as opposed to the freaks they usually have, even on bad Cane teams, and I though UF's OL looked fit and athletic as opposed to fat and sloppy. I already knew UF's D is rock solid. We will see. The Canes have nothing to lose and a whole lot to gain. I like that kind of gamble.
  5. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    Nope. Both teams are largely the same as last year, at least in terms of coaching and personnel.

    It's certainly more quantified than "it will be close because it's a new year."
  6. GatorLaw
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    GatorLaw Well-Known Member

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    I think we'll win by more than 2-3 points. Probably not a blowout and some of our fans and their wives will be disappointed in the win because our offense is so boring. But until I see something that changes my mind I think UM is overrated. I'd guess a 7-10 point win. Only thing that makes me a little nervous is our FG kicker.
  7. NoahBeanBizzel
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    NoahBeanBizzel Well-Known Member

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    Doesn't Miami return something like 20 starters? You've got to respect a talent like Duke Johnson. It's going to be a dog fight if that kid gets going. Florida's defensive front is going to be tested in this game. I'm completely sold on the secondary, but we're going to get a good look at just how physical this Florida front is next Saturday.

    Miami did have a pretty bad defense last season, though. Their secondary had a rough season, and I like the way we match up against them physically along the interior.

    I just see this being a game. But I see Stephen Morris making a few mistakes in the second half to give the Gators the ball with good field position, and I think we win.
  8. gator_chomp
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    gator_chomp New Member

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    they recruit the exact same type of big, speedy athletes as us. they might underachieve for other games but they might transform into the 4 and 5 star studs they're capable of being for 1 game. and that kind of scares me. not enough to think we'll lose tho.
  9. gtr2x
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    gtr2x Well-Known Member

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    Logic says the canes have better athletes, but shutting down an inept fau offense didn't prove anything. I think Toledo would beat fau as bad as the canes did. Other than perryman, not much proven experience for miami. I expect JD and the running backs to have a big game. Just need to survive the early emotion and probable UM trick plays.
  10. themistocles
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    themistocles Well-Known Member

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    Early lines don't in fact mean much.

    Vegas is "spot on" because the final odds are determined not by "experts" but by the betters, who, as usual, display the "Wisdom of Crowds."

    For Vegas bookies (and all bookies), they want 50% of the money on one team and 50% on the other, that is why lines change as money goes down as they attempt to make the less appealing team more appealing to draw more money.

    My guess is that the Gator side will see more money bet on it with these odds, thus, by game time, I expect about a 7 point differential.
  11. bike1014
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    bike1014 Member

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    This is laughable.

    - Miami has 4 players that would crack the UF 2-deep, and we're someone scared of them?

    - At worst this is a "neutral site" game for us.

    - If their jersey's said Wake Forest, we'd all be saying 33-10.

    - Miami barely crossed mid-field vs the 2 legit teams they played last season....and lost 3 ACC games.

    Come on guys.
  12. mdfgator
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    mdfgator Well-Known Member

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    Agree, it may happen but Vegas ain't dumb
  13. mdfgator
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    mdfgator Well-Known Member

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    This I would bet, I like sc in this game
  14. ThePlayer
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    ThePlayer VIP Member

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    What makes you think he's the main course?
  15. ThePlayer
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    ThePlayer VIP Member

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    Because they think Morris & Johnson are better
    than Driskel & Jones (even if healthy).
    We have to prove to them otherwise.
    They may also question our coaching.
  16. mdfgator
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    mdfgator Well-Known Member

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    Dude, seriously?
  17. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    Canes return a ton of players from las year. On paper, they s/b much improved.

    I was not impressed with them against FAU, but they'll have much more intensity against us.

    Still, I think we should win the LOS and control the game.
  18. socraticsilence
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    socraticsilence New Member

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    Matt Jones has less than 300 career yards, has never carried it more than 10 or so times in a game and has never had a 100 yard game why should anyone outside of Gator nation think he's better than a 1000 yard rusher?

    The same to a lesser extent is true with Driskel/Morris- Morris is a likely top 50 draft pick who essentially doubled Jeff's stat line from last season.

    coaching is a tossup- both have their strengths and their weaknesses.

    We'll win because of our defense but let's not pretend their isn't reason to be skeptical of our team, especially offensively.
  19. gator_chomp
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    gator_chomp New Member

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    if the line is -2 now, no way does it jump up 5 points to -7. unless stephen morris or duke johnson are ruled out. highest i could see it going is -3 or -3.5
  20. maxgator
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    maxgator Well-Known Member

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    Vegas does not project winners. They create lines designed to get equal money on both sides. That's how they win.

    Now, if you really want to follow the smart money, go look how that line moved after it opened.

    Opens usually at wynn...ignoring offshore... opened 2.5. Up to 3 immediately...half hour. That's the smart money.

    3 is a big number. Takes a lot to push through.

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