The 2 likely teams to play in the NC are ranked 42 and 52

Discussion in 'Swamp Gas' started by geauxgator1, Dec 3, 2013.

  1. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    I can see an argument for Mizzou as well based on winning the SEC, but not as strong as the argument for Auburn, when you look at SOS... which I think clearly should be part of the evaluation for getting into the big dance.
  2. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 Well-Known Member

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    I also remember a certain Colt McCoy getting knocked out of the game. I wonder how we would have done if Tebow was knocked out in 2008? As for the Auburn game in 2006, I think we got screwed.

    But we were lucky to beat Vandy in 1996, and they were 2-9. Virtually every ACC team that year was better than Vandy except for Duke. It happens in EVERY conference.

    "Weekly" grind? Which SEC team played a "weekly" grind of teams as good as Clemson? An argument could be made for Georgia early in the season, where they had to play Clemson, USCe and LSU in their first four games, with Clemson being the only winner.

    FSU has their best team since 1999, IMO. They are better than "good." I think there are two or three SEC teams better than Ohio State, but with meyer as the coach, i wouldn't rule out the Bucknuts, either.
  3. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 Well-Known Member

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    I can't see Mizzou jumping an undefeated OOC team based on SOS. Auburn has a better argument if they beat Mizzou. But unless the computers dictate this, I just don't see the Harris folks OR the coaches doing that. SEC fatigue has talen hold in the rest of the nation.

    Thank goodness this will be the last year of this. Next year, the SEC will have a slot and can win MNCs forever...
  4. Bedlam
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    Bedlam Well-Known Member

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    I think there's pretty good precedent during the SEC run that an SEC champ with 1 more loss trumps a non-SEC program with 1 less loss

    2006 Florida had 1 more loss than 2006 OSU: 41-14
    2007 LSU had 1 more loss than 2007 OSU: 38-24
    2012 Alabama had 1 more loss than 2012 ND: 42-14

    These are "storied" programs where the 1 loss SEC team was clearly better than the non-SEC team that played a weaker schedule.
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  5. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    Agree on SEC fatigue likely preventing Auburn from jumping an undefeated team even with a legit resume to call for it.

    We know the SEC won't win forever, but the path should be there to win on the field. If we had the four team playoff this year, you'd have to like Bama to win it again, assuming they'd get selected as a four seed.

    Although it wouldn't surprise me if the Pac Champ got into the dance instead as the Pac has the committee loaded. Will be interesting to see how those kind of decisions play out.
  6. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 Well-Known Member

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    Indeed, there is ample precedent, but I really believe that it will take the computers to make that call this year, and I am not sure Auburn or Mizzou will have that much of an advantage to jump them.
  7. Cosmo
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    Except this time there's more than one undefeated team.

    I don't think any 1 loss team should jump an undefeated team.
  8. Bedlam
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    Bedlam Well-Known Member

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    You're right - I was shocked to see Auburn significantly below OSU in the computers. They might gain a little after this week, providing they both win, but they would have to probably win both human polls outright - not likely.
  9. OaktownGator
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    So Northern Illinois should proceed to the BCS CG against FSU, if Ohio State loses?
  10. geauxgator1
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    geauxgator1 Well-Known Member

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    I think If OSU struggles with MSU as they did with Michigan, and Auburn looks good vs. Mizzou, that could happen.
  11. hastings15
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    hastings15 Member

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    Maybe.

    Bama ran through the SEC unscathed in 2009.
    Auburn did it in 2010.
    LSU did it in 2011.
    If not for a FG doinking off the upright, Mizzou may have done it this year.

    So it doesn't seem particularly uncommon lately for the top team in the SEC to run through the conference unbeaten in the regular season. In your scenario (FSU in the SEC), it certainly could have been FSU this year.
  12. Gator_Crush
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    Gator_Crush New Member

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    FSU prolly wouldve breezed thru an SEC schedule this year, they're really good
  13. horanic
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    horanic Active Member

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    Why don't we talk about what happens when ACC teams play in BCS bowl games against other teams which are actually known to be good and what happens when SEC teams play good teams. There is a reason at the end of the year and the beginning the top 20 is filled with SEC teams and the ACC is perpetually represented by one or two.
  14. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 Well-Known Member

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    Very true. OSU is going to have to decisively beat michigan State, and with the Sparties' defense, that may not be easy.
  15. Bedlam
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    Bedlam Well-Known Member

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    The number of undefeated teams is irrelevant to what I posted.
  16. hastings15
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    Right now in the BCS standings, Ohio State's four computer rankings that count are 2, 2, 2, and 2. Auburn's four computer rankings that count are 3, 3, 3, and 3. Even if those numbers had been completely flipped this week, so that Auburn's rankings were 2, 2, 2, and 2 and Ohio State's rankings were 3, 3, 3, and 3, Ohio State STILL would have been ahead of Auburn in the BCS standings. The human vote totals are that much in Ohio State's favor at the moment, with the computer rankings being the gravy on top.

    So, for the sake of argument, let's say Auburn flips the computer rankings this week as I stated in all four of the computer rankings that count for each team. Auburn would then also have to pick up votes in the human polls. Well, if they couldn't get any higher in the vote totals by beating Alabama this past week while Ohio State squeaked by Michigan, how are they going to do it if both Ohio State and Auburn beat solid Top 10 teams this weekend?

    I will add that Auburn's AD made the task even harder for Auburn by alienating every non-SEC coach who votes in the Coaches Poll. Do you think those coaches really wanted to hear the hubris of saying that it would be "un-American" to keep a one-loss SEC team out of the NC against undefeated non-SEC teams? Not a smart move on his part to slap other conferences in the face and give the coaches from those conferences every reason to keep such arrogance under check. Aside from SEC coaches, which coaches are now particularly motivated to move up Auburn over an undefeated FSU or Ohio State?
  17. GatorLaw
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    GatorLaw Well-Known Member

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    That's more like it. I was shocked to see that these two teams were 42 and 52 in SOS. Actually I'm even surprised thatSagarin has them 61 and 66. FSU's schedule is ludicrous, the only ranked team on it is Clemson at #13 (current BCS rankings).

    I think part of Auburn's problem with the humans is that their last two wins could be viewed as lucky flukes, especially the win over Georgia.
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2013
  18. hastings15
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    Here are some more very similar Sagarin SOS numbers for you:

    Texas (one loss): 28
    Auburn (undefeated): 60

    Those are the final SOS numbers from 2004.

    http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2004/teams/

    I seem to recall howling, screaming, and whining from Auburn fans - and frankly many other SEC fans - that Auburn was left out of the NC game after being undefeated with that SOS. Of course, the difference is that there were two other undefeated teams with a much higher SOS that year. But interestingly, I don't remember a single Auburn fan talking about how one-loss Texas with a better SOS was getting screwed even worse, or that one-loss Texas should even remotely be in the conversation for the second NC slot.

    I don't recall any Auburn or SEC fans discussing how that SOS of 60 was indicative of their "cupcake" schedule, or how soft their opponents were, or how weak their conference was, or how it made Auburn undeserving not only over other undefeated teams, but over a one-loss team as well. I just remember the indignation. It's interesting how things change when the shoe is on the other foot.
  19. Distant Gator
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    Distant Gator Well-Known Member

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    First- that's pretty obscure. The 2 teams in 04 were USCw and OU. The beef Auburn had was with one of those teams- not Texas. OU had already beaten Texas so Texas wasn't much of a factor in the discussion.

    Next- all school's fans are going to be biased. But just to correct you on one point- the Gator boards didn't really take up a strong case for Auburn. I was here- it was split. We were too excited about our new coach. And frankly Auburn was probably right- they would have done better vs USC than OU- but that's easy to say after the fact.

    Lastly- you leave out the most important point- the 2006 beatdown of OSU changed everything vis-a-vis a 1 loss SEC team vs an undefeated big 10 team. I remember OSU fans over here loudly proclaiming how great they were. I think you were also here. And who could blame the tOSU fans. SI proclaimed OSU "the best- period." How could UF stop Ohio State? Everybody said it would be a rout! Especially all those obnoxious OSU fans.

    Wow- what a mismatch. Even if you had Ted Ginn, our DL was so much better than your OL. It was like you were an FCS team or something. This was "the best?" But again- any team can look great if the competition is poor, but better competition changes things. That was the lesson here.

    And now here we are- after 6 more BCS titles by the SEC. It is indisputable that the best of the SEC has taken on the best of the rest of the country and beat them each time since 2006. That's statistically significant. What's more impressive- is that most of the time the games were blow-outs.

    So with all this data I can't help but conclude that the SEC champ has earned the right to play for the BCS title in a 2 team playoff.

    Will THIS SEC champ beat the best of the rest of the country? I honestly don't know. A case could be made for either side. If I had to bet- I wouldn't bet on Auburn or Mizzou beating FSU or OSU. But I could be wrong, and so could you. What I see is 7 straight titles. This is not a lucky bounce, it's SEC dominance.

    So being a numbers guy- I conclude the SEC team should get a shot. Even over an undefeated team.
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  20. hastings15
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    I can't speak for other Ohio State fans, but I never engaged in such hyperbole prior to that game. If others did, that's their problem. It's what overzealous fans do...it's what the media does...and it becomes immediately tiresome . I have tremendous respect for Florida's athletic programs, and I enjoy this forum because your fans are passionate, knowledgeable, and discuss a broad range of CFB topics.

    I don't recall what the point spread was for the Ohio State-Florida game. Didn't it tighten up in the final week? I know when Ohio State played Miami for the NC in 2002, the Hurricanes were favored by 14 at kickoff. I don't think it was that much for the 2006 NC game. Do you recall?

    The strange twist of fate when discussing that 2006 game and using it as rationale to discuss this year is that the same coach who engineered that big win is now coaching the Buckeyes. Meyer is 2-0 with two solid wins when given the opportunity to play for the National Championship. He's on a 25-game win streak as a coach. I know you guys are down on him for obvious reasons, but his national perception is that of a winner and probably the second most respected championship-caliber coach. If Ohio State was undefeated right now but with Tressel still coaching, I do believe Auburn would be ahead in the human polls.
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2013

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