The 2 likely teams to play in the NC are ranked 42 and 52

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by geauxgator1, Dec 3, 2013.

  1. Freddy02
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    Freddy02 Premium Member

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    You do understand that by playing a crap schedule and running up the score you get great numbers. That's not crying, that's just fact.
  2. gatorinmi
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    gatorinmi Well-Known Member

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    Billingsley:

    Auburn: 12
    OSU: 73
    FSU: 66
  3. Wormwood56
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    So can Georgia Southern, for that matter.

    The REALLY good teams are Alabama, Auburn, Mizzou and perhaps USCe. LSU, A&M, Georgia and perhaps Ole Miss are good teams. The rest are mediocre to poor.

    I am inclined to agree with you regarding Ohio State, but FSU would beat every team on there except perhaps Alabama. If they lose any others, it would be an upset.

    Remember, I do not put SEC teams on a pedestal. An 8-win Georgia team beat a 7-win GT team in double OT. Vandy, although 8-4, barely got past Wake Forest, with an inverted 4-8 record. Generally speaking, an X-win SEC team is about as good as an X+0.8 win OOC team. That is based on OOC history in games played.

    Florida generally has the toughest schedule in the SEC every year (last year, it was Mizzou). Not every SEC team has a strong schedule.

    I've heard this excuse for decades. It was the usual excuse given when Spurrier lost to the Noles. It simply isn't substantiated, and yes, I looked up the schedules of both teams every year SOS lost to FSU.

    It's NOT "every week." Last year, Mizzou had the toughest schedule in the nation, but this year:

    Opponent-----------------Caliber of team

    Murray State........................ Rent-a-win
    Toledo....................................7-5 mid-major (easy win for a decent team)
    Indiana..................................5-7 (mediocre BiG team, easy win for a decent team)
    Arkansas State.......................7-5 mid-major (easy win for a decent team)

    Vandy.....................................8-4 (very weak 8-4, as the only good team they beat was a badly-injured Georgia)
    Georgia..................................8-4 (so-so this year, no better than Georgia Tech)
    Florida....................................4-8 (why beat this dead equine?)
    USCe.....................................10-2 (first very good team, and Mizzou lost when SOS put Shaw in)
    Tennessee................................5-7 (lucky win over USCe, but beat no one else
    Kentucky.................................2-10 (as weak as anyone in BCS conference football, lost to Western Kentucky)
    Ole Miss...................................7-5 (solid win against Texas, and squeakers against Vandy and LSU, but average)
    Texas A&M..............................8-4 (solid team whose best win is against Vandy and Ole Miss)

    In truth, the only REALLY good team Mizzou played was USCe, with Texas A&M second. There was no gauntlet here. The only team either OSu or FSU would have a challenge with, IMO, is USCe, and I think FSU blows their doors off. Ohio State would have a nailbiter.
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  4. Wormwood56
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    Can you support this with data? I think you will find that there isn't a whole lotta difference.
  5. gatorinmi
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    gatorinmi Well-Known Member

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    Isn't that what my posts basically just did?
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  6. gatorinmi
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    gatorinmi Well-Known Member

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    Really, this is your analysis? Talk about a bunch of randomness just based on how you feel. lol At some point you need to find some consistency in your arguments so they don't just look laughable. You can't argue how much our season was affected by injuries and then claim UGA no better than GT while leaving out that you can basically say Clemson is no better than UGA. The UGA team that GT played wasn't half the team that Mizzou played. Then you categorize some wins as lucky because it doesn't fit your narrative, but other wins are downright proof?

    That's fine, don't put SEC teams on a "pedestal", but all you're saying is that's your bias. The computers that rank conferences, and use things like data and facts as opposed to how you feel, have the SEC ranked at the top and well ahead of both the ACC and B1G.
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  7. DieAGator
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    DieAGator Well-Known Member

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    Meyer sure looks like a genius doesn't he? He beats up patsies all year waiting for the real teams in the SEC to stumble against one another.
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  8. Bushmaster
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    Bushmaster Well-Known Member

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    uga plays a rivalry game missing its 4 year starting 1st round draft pick quarterback and still wins and now all of a sudden they are an acc equivalent. Sorry. Not buying it.

    Whether you put the SEC on a pedestal or not is irrelevant. 7 straight BCS championships with 4 different teams says otherwise.

    And frankly, if f$u and osu play the title game, a lot of folks won't consider it legit. To be the man, you have to beat the man. f$u and osu currently have crappy strength of schedules.

    As far as tough games in a season not having an effect, you must have never played the game. It absolutely does have an effect. The week in and week out pounding has a detrimental effect on the body.
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  9. horanic
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    horanic Active Member

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    If you take Clemson out of the FSU schedule I think it is obvious. Clemson at 12 (cough cough) brings their SOS up dramatically. Without Clemson I bet they are at about 100. The SEC schedule is 5 or 6 tough games at least with the likelihood any of those guys could beat you if you dont have your A game. FSU had one team which immediately went south with mistakes early and got buried. If you are playing Russian roulette FSU would have one bullet in the revolver....any SEC team would have 5. One will eventually get you.

    Wormwood Id love to see you defend the SOS of FSU with any of the teams not named Clemson. It cant be done.
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  10. Bushmaster
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    Bushmaster Well-Known Member

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    Think about this. The SEC is on a 7 straight BCS title run. Only eta, maybe two teams, went undefeated, 2009 Bama. EVERY other team had a conference loss. EVERY DAMN ONE. Name four teams in ANY other conference that could win a BCS title. Name a conference strong enough that could win 7 straight.

    It isn't hype if its true.
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  11. Wormwood56
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    I wasn't addressing your point, inmi, but the data you showed were opinions based on proprietary calculations, not raw data. Perhaps if we were to look at how FSU did against their opponents versus how the rest of their opponents' opponents fared, we would get an idea if it was simply one great team pummeling their opposition versus any notion that FSU's opposition was somehow weaker than anyone else's.

    For example, let's look at Clemson.

    Opponent--------------Yards Gained--Points Gained--------------Yards Allowed---Points Allowed

    Georgia....................................467.........................38..............................................545...................35
    USCe.........................................352........................14...............................................318...................31
    Florida State.............................326........................14...............................................565...................51

    Let's use Florida.

    Opponent--------------Yards Gained--Points Gained--------------Yards Allowed---Points Allowed

    Georgia......................................319.......................20...............................................414..................23
    USCe..........................................307.......................14...............................................377..................19
    Florida State..............................193..........................7...............................................456.................37
    Clemson played a full-strength Georgia, while Florida played an injured Dawgs team, so the match isn't perfect. But:

    * FSU's defensive performance against Clemson was slightly better than USCe's and vastly better than Georgia's. Everyone knows USCe has a strong defense; that is the foundation of their team. Georgia and FSU both gained a ton of yards against Clemson, while USCe capitalized on six Clemson turnovers for the win, but being that Connor Shaw's offensive strategy was to run for first downs fromo 3d and 10 (and amazingly, he was very successful), I think it is safe to say that USCe was NOT playing vanilla on offense against their hated rival at home.

    * FSU's defensive performance against Florida was substantially better than either USCe or Georgia, and their offensive performance was somewhat better than Georgia's and better still than USCe, which is consistent with the performance against Clemson.

    Looking at it another way, FSU is the ACC's top offense (7th in the nation). Texas A&M is the SEC's top offense (5th in the nation):

    School--------------------Yards vs Conference Opponents

    Florida State................................................513 yds/game
    Texas A&M..................................................514 yds/game

    Could one just as easily say that Texas A&M feasted on SEC opponents as easily as FSU did on ACC rivals?

    No one questions that Auburn's schedule is more difficult than either Ohio State's or Florida State's. It clearly is. What is nonsensical is the notion that FSU's numbers are only padded by weak competition, and as usually is the case, it is implied that the conference competetion is weak.

    FSU can score big points on pretty much anyone.
  12. Wormwood56
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    Not sure what your coughing fit means. Doubtless something condescending, I'm sure...

    I can't. That said, take Alabama off Auburn's schedule, and USce off Mizzou's schedule and you have:

    Auburn Opponent----W/L--------------FSU Opponent-----W/L------------Mizzou Opponent----W/L

    LSU....................................9-3.......................Miami..........................9-3......................Georgia.......................8-4
    Georgia..............................8-4.......................Boston Coll..................7-5......................Texas A&M.................8-4
    Texas A&M........................8-4.......................Maryland.....................7-5......................Vandy.........................8-4
    Ole Miss.............................7-5........................Syracuse.....................6-6.......................Ole Miss.....................7-5
    Wash State........................6-6.........................Pitt..............................6-6.......................Indiana.....................5-7
    Miss State..........................6-6.........................Wake Forest...............4-8.......................Tennessee.................5-7
    Tennessee..........................5-7.........................Florida........................4-8.......................Florida......................4-8
    Arkansas............................3-9.........................NC State.....................3-9.......................Kentucky..................2-10

    Total........................52-44............................................46-50..........................................47-49

    Arky State..........................7-5..........................Nevada......................4-8........................Toledo......................7-5
    FAU....................................6-6..........................Idaho........................1-11........................Arky State...............7-5
    Western Carolina...............FCS.........................Bethune-Cookman...FCS.......................Murray State..........FCS

    Auburn clearly has a stronger schedule than FSU, but Mizzou doesn't. As for the mid-majors and FCS teams, there is no excuse for a good team to lose to any of them, so they don't really count.

    As you can see, there isn't that much difference. Auburn and Mizzou didn't have five "tough" teams," while FSU only had Clemson. ANY team from ANY BCS Conference can beat you if you don't have your "A" game, so by that definition, Auburn and Mizzou had five such opponents, while FSU had four such opponents. Of course, if Florida is where they usually are, FSU's schedule gets substantially stronger.

    And no, a 5-7 SEC team is not as good as a 7-5 ACC team. The ACC team would win 78% of those head to head contests. A 7-5 ACC team would beat a 6-6 SEC team 67% of the time. I did the homework for head to head games since 2000. Florida would probably be about the 10th best team in the ACC, according to the mathematical history, at 5-7. If I was generous and gave them a 6-6 record, that would still be behind eight ACC schools.

    As for the argument that 5-6 SEC teams could win the MNC, perhaps last year, but not this year. The only teams good enough to win them all are Alabama, Auburn, and Mizzou, IMO, and I think FSU would beat Auburn and Mizzou. Alabama is the only team in the nation that could beat the Noles this year.
  13. Distant Gator
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    Distant Gator Well-Known Member

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    I understand those that say FSU would beat anyone in the country. They have looked great against their schedule.

    But Ohio State also looked like worldbeaters against their schedule in 2006. PLUS they were undefeated. AND they had a Heisman trophy winner- who wasn't even a rapist. If you like FSU this year you should have LOVED 2006 Ohio State. They had it all!

    Meanwhile, we looked pretty shaky. We barely beat UT, UGA, Bama, LSU, and FSU. Plus we had a loss. It was a no-brainer- Ohio State will kill Florida, right?

    82 yards of total offense later- um, not so much. Did Herbie ever apologize?

    The lesson here is that sometimes a 1-loss team with a decent schedule is better than an undefeated team vs a team in the Big 10 or ACC.

    The level of competition determines how good you look- frankly.

    After 7 straight- the SEC champ deserves to go.
  14. Wormwood56
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    Wormwood56 VIP Member

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    Doesn't mean those teams are strong EVERY year, Bush. The 2012 Auburn Tigers wouldn't have won jack. Neither would the 2013 Gators, the 2008-9 LSU Tigers, or any Tennessee team since 2008. Or any other SEC team outside of Alabama.
  15. Wormwood56
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    Please. Line up anyone outside of Alabama, and they would still look great.

    Putting aside the slander that Winston is a rapist (innocent until proven guilty, y'know), Ohio State:

    * Was nowhere NEAR as strong offensively or defensively as FSU is this year. The Buckeyes were 26th in total offense to FSU's 7th, and 12th in total defense to FSU's 4th.

    * Ohio State had two games decided by a TD or less: 42-39 to Michigan, and 17-10 to Ron Zook's Illinois. The closest team to FSU was Addazio's Boston College at 14 points.

    * Virtually everyone outside of the most diehard homers (ncluding most Florida fans) thought Ohio State had it all as well. Fortunately, Urban Meyer and the players disagreed.

    By rights, yes.

    Of course, their best player was knocked out after he took the opening kickoff for a TD. But that shouldn't matter...right? Did Herbie apologize? yes he did - many times.

    But not always. Personally, I think this year's Ohio State team isn't as good as auburn, Alabama or Mizzou. But then again, they had many close games. Perhaps Meyer remembers that. Perhaps the voters remember Meyer's 2006 team that also struggled, only to dominate at the end.

    But the level of Auburn's and especially Mizzou'd competition is not THAT much better than FSU's.

    If one of three undefeated teams is an SEC team, I would strongly agree with you. But to JUMP to storied programs simply because the SEC team is in the SEC? Don't buy it.

    Believe me, there is too much interest in the eyes of the journalistic hacks in Ohio State (will Meyer EVER lose?) and Florida State (they're BACK!!!). Auburn will not get nearly as much love, and Mizzou even less.

    Nope. You gotta earn it on the field. Auburn shouldn't have lost to LSU. Mizzou shouldn't have choked against USCe.
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  16. OaktownGator
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    While the SEC is clearly down this year in comparison to the past few years, Auburn still has a significant SOS advantage over FSU and OSU.

    And there is something to be said for having to beat the best. With the SEC winning seven in a row, if it's a tight race between three teams, I think the SEC team has earned their way to being one of the top two, especially when there is a big difference in SOS, as there clearly is.

    It won't matter next year as the SEC Champ would clearly get into one of the top four. And if Mich State beats Ohio State, it won't matter this year. But if things stay as is, I think Auburn will have a legit case to be in the big game.
  17. Wormwood56
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    But Mizzou doesn't. What happens if Mizzou beats Auburn?

    What about Mizzou? I really believe Auburn won on a fluke against Alabama.
  18. Bushmaster
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    But the point remains those teams looked pretty damn awesome in the title game (especially the 2006 Gators) despite having a conference loss. No team on the planet would have touched the 2006 Gators in the title game, but Auburn did beat us at Auburn. The SEC can and will make you look ugly at times. Remember UT v. UA in 08 or 09 with the Mount Cody block?

    FSU is a good football team. No doubt there. But the fact remains they have had an easy schedule and were favored over every team they played. Put them in the SEC with the weekly grind of playing at team at least the quality of Clemson and they take a loss or two.
  19. Wormwood56
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    Where? Enlighten me. I came to my assertion based on data I compiled going back to 2000. Is the data faulty?

    So I can't be selective? But Clemson has demonstrated that they are better than Georgia head to head when the Dawgs was at full strength, as well as the final record. GT, OTOH, was basically as good as Georgia, as evidenced by THEIR head to head game and final W/L record.

    Georgia's injuries piled up BEFORE the Mizzou game, if memory serves. They got some of their players BACK against GT. Gurley was out against Tennessee, Mizzou and Vandy. Many others were also injured before the Mizzou game.

    Why not? We do that with opponents that beat us due to our numerous turnovers all the time - that is, until the head coach becomes persona non grata. Then we blame him. I know the Conventional Wisdom here as well as anyone.

    Based on FACTS. The winning percentage against OOC teams is not nearly as dominant as many here believe.

    Yes they are, but I disagree that the difference is as wide as some of your computer analysts believe. Why is it that when those same folks said the PAC-10 teams had higher SOS's than SEC teams, we all wailed here, but when it gives the SEC all the love, then they are all of a sudden right?
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  20. Wormwood56
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    Why should they be treated differently than, say, Mizzou, who lost THEIR starting QB? Georgia also got Gurley back, as well as several other starters. How about GT's injuries. They aren't full strength, either. Or do we simply ASSUMe that OOC teams always come to play an SEC team full strength and absolutely focused, playing their "A" game?

    What that says is at the very TOP, the SEC has demonstrated to win the MNCs. That does NOT mean that EVERY team in the SEC is automatically superior to their OOC counterparts with similar records.

    As does Mizzou. In order to be the Man, you have to beat The Man. "The Man" is Alabama...not the SEC.

    I've played the game. Are you you telling me that playing bottom feeders on the SEC are tougher than playing bottom feeders in another conference? That cannot be proven, as a 3-win, or even a 4-win SEC team is NOT as good as a 5-win BCS OOC team. That is demonstrable.

    Mizzou played one very good team in USCe; Florida State played Clemson.

    Mizzou played Vandy, Georgia, Texas A&M and Ole Miss. FSU played Miami, Boston College, Maryland, Pitt and Syracuse.

    Mizzou played patsies like Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana and the mid-majors/FCS schools. FSU played NC State, Wake forest and the mid-majors/FCS schools.

    Not a Hell of a lot of difference there. Not everyone has Texas A&M's offense and Alabama's defense. The SEC has their cupcakes as well. There isn't often a "gauntlet."
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