Separate names with a comma.
Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by Minister_of_Information, Jun 18, 2013.
Ah yes, gold peaking about six months ago in 2011. :laugh:
Which one of you libs was trying to argue with me about the reaction to the feds QE program? I said this is exactly what would happen and the sad part is, they mentioned they might taper off at the end of the year. Imagine what stocks and rates would do once they actually start doing so....
Markets do not like Bernanke's signaling the end of easy money. We knew interest rates had to go up at some point, this looks like it.
another brutal day for stocks and bonds. Yesterday i was locking FHA loans at 3.875%. Today i am locking FHA loans at 4.5%. And that is less than 24 hours of Ben giving the feds report.
Obama's economy is a farce and it is showing just that.
Obama-tax comes into full swing in 2014, look for the rest of the year to be a wild roller-coaster ride straight downward.
I think the next few days will be key. If people go charging into the bond market on weakness, the whole narrative could shift.
With a probable 20 trillion dollar deficit coming soon? Why would anyone do that?
Because macroeconomic fears and lack of belief in the recovery may lead investors to chase any "safe" yields they can find... such as in a recently devalued bond market. It is a bit ironic, isn't it... lack of belief in FED medicine could lead to panic when it is withdrawn and thus the private investor taking the place of the FED at the bond trough. Unless you think commodities can turn it around (which would actually damage the recovery...).
What would make them charge into the bond market? The big reason so many found home in the bond market was because the feds QE program.
The bond market may put in a higher near term bottom than many are expecting, is I guess what I'm trying to suggest may happen. Not will happen, but may happen. If so I believe that would be bullish for equities. (And I realize that is somewhat contradictory, but I think the key to that causality is somewhat hidden, which would be the widespread conviction among money on the sidelines or hedged in commodities to return to equities.)
I am trying to imagine how that could happen. I am no expert on us treasuries and bonds. That said, why would it? It has been pushing for this for months now.
It's bullish because it implies conditions leading to recovery. If rates stay low without QE (as they would in a normal business cycle trough), it implies that the economy has been restored to a self-healing condition, which is bullish considering the fear still out there.
My cost basis is sub $400.
I sold at the peak. Not the highest it ever was. I try not to attempt to time the market. Just follow the trends. I'm not a day trader.
The issue is we are almost at the same spot in 2008 where you are left wondering where to put your money.
I'll try to remember this when I get to Nepal. It'll save me a lot of effort.
But none of the said above apply at the moment. We will see but I see rates in the fives around the corner.
I put about 15% of my cash to work today. Think I'm going to wait for the bond market to stabilize before making any more moves, or certainly any sizable ones.
Me I thought I would be smarter I put most of my cash into an ETF that shorted 10 year treasuries. Just the sound of that sounds like I would be making a killing right? ETF is up about 2 percent the last week. I hate ETFs. They have nothing to do with investing. I should have just shorted treasures myself.
Live and Learn and get ready to return.
I'm not smart enough to trade that way, but I do like hearing about it. Someday maybe I'll dabble in derivatives with a very small part of my portfolio.