Stock Market Near Term

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by Minister_of_Information, Jun 18, 2013.

  1. Minister_of_Information
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    Minister_of_Information I'm your huckleberry Premium Member

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    Read an interesting article on CNBC: The Market Reaction to the Great Taper May Surprise You

    The end of the bond bubble with the start of FED tapering is probably one of the most anticipated events of the past couple of years. In fact I've been raising cash for about a month now in anticipation of some buying opportunities -- both in stocks and bonds -- over the next several months.

    What do the resident stock market gurus say? Are we really headed for bond market volatility when the FED begins to taper, or is the anticipation of volatility so overblown that it might actually prove to be stabilizing and thus bullish over the short term for equities?

    Inquiring minds want to know...
  2. Gatorrick22
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    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

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    October will see a drop, IMHO.
  3. Minister_of_Information
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    Minister_of_Information I'm your huckleberry Premium Member

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    If the FED signals the begin of tapering, and yields either remain stable or fall further, would that cause the market to pop?
  4. Gatorrick22
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    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

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    October has been historically bad (a few times) because of the quarterly reports, I believe.
  5. Minister_of_Information
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    Minister_of_Information I'm your huckleberry Premium Member

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    I'm talking about before then, like the market pops after this FED meeting and rallys this summer then slumps in the fall as you mention. Any guesses?
  6. gatorbronco
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    gatorbronco Member

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    Equities will go higher. Debt will probably go lower as yields rise.
  7. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    I've shown you where this is untrue. October is still one of the top 5 months of the year.
  8. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    The worst months are:

    September
    February
    June
    August
    May
    July
    October
    January/March
    April/November
    December

    In that order.
  9. SydneySLee
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    SydneySLee Active Member

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    A lot of banks still need long term treasuries or something considered as safe to comply with Dodd-Frank and/or Basel. So as the Fed stops buying, there may be another entity that steps in to fill the void. Once the tapering starts I am not sure demand is going to change too much. Obviously it will over time, but immediately, not too sure. Like you say that may be a perceived anticipation which will cause volatility to rise more than anything.
  10. surfn1080
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    surfn1080 Well-Known Member

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    Here is what i do know, every time the feds even hint to slowing or ending QE3, rates increase...

    The writer is correct in that its all speculation but either way it doesn't look good.
  11. gregthegator
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    gregthegator Well-Known Member

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    You guys REALLY NEED to retake history lessons before EVEN attemping to trade or predict THE market...:ninja: :no:

    a MAJOR clue...study any society...(including ours...ie...1930's)...a see what EXACTLY happens when CHEAP money is suddenly PULLED from THE suckling teat...

    and if you don't have a clue about what I JUST wrote...you shouldn't BE gambling to begin w/.!!!
  12. gator1986
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    gator1986 Well-Known Member

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    I predict lots of money will be spent, and I also predict lots of money will be lost.

    Anybody want to bet me and lose?
  13. Gatorrick22
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    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

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    Not in the "order" of severity. You can do what you like. But, I'm not going to invest in it heavily until after October is done and gone.



    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929


    http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2012/10/02/october-stock-market-crash-proof/1601355/[/QUOTE]





    http://www.money-zine.com/investing/stocks/stock-market-crash-of-2008/

  14. Minister_of_Information
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    Minister_of_Information I'm your huckleberry Premium Member

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    The thing about that is, there is literally a wall of money sitting on the sidelines right now or parked in commodities due to (perhaps overblown) macro concerns. So it's not like there isn't enough liquidity and uncertainty out there to keep bond rates low for now, as Sydney so eloquently stated, especially if there is a modest uptick in yields to garner interest (in the interest...). Plus, if everyone is shorting bonds but yields don't move much, that could result in a short squeeze that may exacerbate things. In the 30's the situation was one of extremely tight liquidity until war production got rolling. IMO this is the most well managed liquidity crisis in history, at least by the FED.
  15. Gatorrick22
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    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

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    And what about right now, or the near future?
  16. Minister_of_Information
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    Minister_of_Information I'm your huckleberry Premium Member

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    The exit was always going to be tricky... :ninja:
  17. gregthegator
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    gregthegator Well-Known Member

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    Do ya'll know DERIVATIVES are?:ninja:

    So much FOR liquidity...:sick:
  18. gregthegator
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    gregthegator Well-Known Member

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    as I wrote before..no free milk..time to go home
  19. Minister_of_Information
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    Minister_of_Information I'm your huckleberry Premium Member

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    If yesterday was the beginning of a downward trend, I've timed things perfectly, as I am about 40% in cash.
  20. mocgator
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    mocgator Well-Known Member

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    The stock market is pretty simple. Buy when others are selling and sell when others are buying. I started a thread about 6 months ago or more about gold starting to peak. I sold gold and bought equities. It seems equities are getting over bought so I'm selling and waiting for the next buying opportunity.

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