Statistical Perspectives on the Gator Offense

Discussion in 'Swamp Gas' started by themistocles, Sep 2, 2013.

  1. themistocles
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    themistocles Well-Known Member

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    Plus some non-strictly-statistical factors, which come first. Statistics source: http://www.secdigitalnetwork.com/Portals/3/SEC Website/football/confldrs.htm

    1 - This offense is both boring and predictable.

    2 - It is highly ineffective at what is important, which is scoring. Urban Meyer made the point that you score more frequently when you get long plays, and the current Gator passing game almost never goes down field.

    Statistical FACTS - admittedly after only a single game, but consistent with both of the past two years under Muschamp with different OCs. Also, the Gator's statistics were against a "decent" mid-major, but one returning only four starters on defense.

    THE GOOD FIRST

    - 1st in Time of Possession, followed closely by other teams with typically low scoring offenses: Arkansas, LSU and Mississippi State.

    THE BAD

    3 - 13th in scoring offense, with only one SEC team, Mississippi State, scoring fewer points than the Gators, despite the fact that 4 SEC teams lost.

    4 - 5th in rushing offense with the lowest yards per carry among the top 6 (this results from predictablity).

    5 - Unsurprisingly, 11th in passing offense.

    6 - Unsurprisingly, 10th in total offense.

    7 - Unsurprisingly, 12th in penalties (admittedly, not all offensive)

    8 - Not too bad - tied for 5th in 3rd down conversions (against a mid major)

    9 - 13th in Red Zone Offense (this has also been pretty consistent under Muschamp due to too many Field Goal attempts in the Red Zone due to predictability - the last year 2 years, the percentage of FG hits was high.

    INDIVIDUAL STATISTICS - VERY SURPRISINGLY

    10 - And once again, the Gator Quarterback is down the list on Passing Efficiency. Despite the fact that Driskel had the 2nd highest completion percentage (77.3%, behind UT's Worley at 84.6% and over Manziel's 75.0% ), threw no interceptions and one TD, he is 8th in Passing efficiency, because his average gain per pass was only 9 yards per completion (compare with the 7 ahead of him, who were respectively 15.7, 9.5, 15.3, 13.6, 15.6, 12.2 and 16.2. Worley, had 3 TDs plus the 84% completion percentage, despite only 9.5 yards per completion.

    The following facts have proven consistent through Muchamp's coaching stint: Year 1 - OC - Weiss, Year 2 - Pease (who was outstanding at Boise State), and Year 3 - Pease. Therefore we must attribute them to Muschamp:

    1 - Control of the clock and few turnovers (very positive is the 2nd).

    2 - Highly predictable and utterly boring 3 yards and a cloud of dust offense.

    3 - Very few down the field passes, thus few long plays and therefore, limited scoring.

    4 - Offensive line that blocks well for the run but can't pass block their way out of a paper bag with a blowtorch, even against mediocre opposition.

    5 - Due to #3 above, consistently low Pass Efficiency from the quarterback. Brantley was 11th or 12th and Driskel was down the line last year also. Of course Brantly also threw interceptions, which Driskel doesn't do very much.

    To summarize - historically boring and predictable offense, which tends to reduce scoring and red zone efficiency.

    Regarding Red Zone efficiency, you may recall the Gator's trip to Alabama in 2010. In that defensive struggle, both teams got into the Red Zone only 4 times. However, Bama scored 3 TDs and 1 FG (24 points), while the Gators managed 2 FGs and 2 Turnovers (6 points).

    Muschamp's predictable offensive strategy makes the team utterly dependent on strong, if not dominating defense. It is good to have a strong defense, but it makes things easier when you also have an effective offense, like under Spurrier and Meyer, but not Zook.


    HOPEFULLY - this first vanilla game will not foreshadow the entire season, but history suggests that it will.
  2. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    If it were truly "predictable" we wouldn't move the ball. "Boring" is subjective and, ultimately, unimportant. A boring offense that scores 1 more point than its opponent every game is a national title offense. You can feel free to not watch the games, but it'll be your loss.

    Again, aside from two games last year this is definitively untrue. Unless you wish to give an arbitrary "enough points" metric which all games can be compared.

    I'm almost 100% certain he said "big plays" not "long plays."

    Judging anything after one game is an exercise in frivolity.
  3. NoahBeanBizzel
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    NoahBeanBizzel Well-Known Member

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    ....and more of these will come out of the woodwork with each passing week. You know, it's sad that even if we beat Miami 17-13 you're still going to hear more complaining than celebrating for a tough win, over a decent team, in a somewhat tough environment.

    Anybody who watched that game knows what they saw offensively from the Gators. And if you think that's the final product, then you just don't know anything about the game.
  4. cbseptic
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    cbseptic Premium Member

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    So what do your propose? How effective was Meyer in 2010 of producing " long plays"? SOS was great at producing "long Plays" but couldn't win it all until Stoops brought a defense with him to G ville. In 2006 our offense was really smoking too right?

    When you get the talent UF does in recruiting there are a lot of ways to win. This is how Muschamp is going to win. The dude is is 13-2 in his last 15 including wins at aTm, LSU, USCe, OSU, and at FSU

    So what are you proposing here?
  5. BobbyGator72
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    BobbyGator72 Member

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    Great analysis themistocles. I love coach Muschamp but right now I feel he only understands what he needs from his offense in order to have a great defense. Not what he needs from his offense in order to have a great team. So many teams are going up tempo because they want to run more plays, in most cases I think that the more plays you run, the more you have a chance of proving that your talent is better than their talent and gives you a greater chance of scoring more points. Now this may also lead to allowing more yards and more points from your opponents but if you have a great defense it will also IMO lead to more turnovers and more chances for your talent to prove better than their talent. A win is a win but I think everyone agrees that right now CM would rather win 10-0 than 31-21. because it looks like a better defensive performance. I believe with the talent and depth we have on defense we might give up a couple of more points per game and more yards but we would also end up with more turnovers and potentially more defensive touchdowns or easy scores so instead of winning by 10 we might win by 20 instead. Just my rant of the day
  6. leissam
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    leissam VIP Member

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    Why isn't everyone happy we won and that we played a good game. Driskel does what he is asked to do. Does everyone want us to force long plays and then turn the ball over. Or should we just pass the ball down the field every play and then punt on fourth down because then we are predictable. If everyone will recall we wine 11 game last year and lost two because we didn't play our style of offense. We had six turnovers against the almighty UGA and still barely lost and if you recall the Louisville game we came try to go deep early where did that get us.

    Just be happy we are being successful again and winning games and we will continue to win games playing just how we play now.
  7. BobbyGator72
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    BobbyGator72 Member

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    leissam I am happy that we won and that we played a pretty good game. I am a fan of Driskel and I agree he does what he is asked to do which is dont turn the ball over and make some plays with your feet. My biggest concern with the way we play right now is that if we do get down by more than a touchdown or so (like we did at Georgia and Louisville) we don't have the ability to score points quickly or in bunches. Herbstreet picked Toledo because he felt we couldnt win a shootout, which I would not be too confident in myself. Luckily our defense is so good, we dont have to do that with very many teams.
  8. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    Does this analysis change completely if we don't get the questionable holding call on Dunbar, and Patton holds on to the ball?

    Two more big plays. 14 more points. Another 70 yards or so of offense... 50 more for Driskel in the pass game.

    I do think we need to push the ball downfield more, but do not believe we are on track for another year like last year.

    We'll see.
  9. sec1
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    sec1 VIP Member Premium Member

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    If we can win championships with this offense ,I will take boring all day long
  10. Chompsuey
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    Chompsuey Member

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    I don't see out D allowing any team to get into a shoot out. You do realize we had our best lb and cb suspended right? We still held a team that averaged 445 yards and 31.5 points per game to 205 and 6. We also gave many touches to showers who just recently converted. We also use purifoy on offense. That tells me we don't have many offensive playmakers yet but we will in due time. Patience my friend. We will have another trophy probably next year! But if we win the title game 14-10 will all of y'all still be complaining?
  11. gator34654
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    gator34654 Well-Known Member

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    Patience my friends patience. Can't base this year on one game. Remember, strong D, few or new turnovers, field position, TOP, wins a lot of games. Right now we are a blue collar running team that passes when we need to. I believe the next game we will see more passing because teams will do what they can to stop the run.
  12. rserina
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    rserina VIP Member

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    So, let me summarize the highlights of this post:

    1) You think the offense is boring and predictable, absent any justification.

    2) You think the sole goal of the offense is to score, not contribute to wins (which obviously includes scoring, but also more than that), again without an justification as to why this offense does or does not accomplish that.

    3) You cite statistics after one game as representative of that, when in fact any good statistician like you would recognize that the same size is too low to be credible, especially when conditions vary so wildly.

    4) You attribute the "three yards and a cloud of dust" philosophy to Muschamp, which reveals you know nothing about the phrase "three yards and a cloud of dust," the entirely different offense schemes we've run under Weis and Pease, or their backgrounds in horizontal schemes themselves.

    5) You cite "predictable" offense as the reason for redzone struggles, which do no substantiate in any way by citing, say, a single football play that would account for that predictability--a consistency throughout your entire post.

    6) Your statistical justification for redzone struggles then is a 2010 game with different personnel and a different coordinator (who opened the game with a--wait for it--bomb!) that you compare against a philosophically similar, but more successful Bama team.

    I give you a 10 for quantity of words.
  13. gatorbogey
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    gatorbogey Active Member

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    Muschamp's emphasis is in the trenches. to win in the SEC, that's where you have to focus nowadays. control the line of scrimmage.

    i'm not sure all is predictable and/or boring. I see a lot of creative stuff going on w/ the OL pulling and blocking schemes. we go from 5-wide shotgun looks to jumbo sets w/ 3 TE's. that's quite a range.
  14. GatorSean
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    GatorSean Well-Known Member

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    Agreed. I would guess every 'bad' stat suddenly becomes decent if Patton catches the ball. So I don't know how anyone can attribute that to 'coaching philosophy'. It was just crap execution at the very end of what was otherwise a perfect play.

    Speaking of stats, Bama is dead last in total offense, but is the #1 team in the nation. So maybe these stats don't mean so much after week one.
  15. cbseptic
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    cbseptic Premium Member

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    Nicely done.
  16. TheGator
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    TheGator Premium Member

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    If we go 11-1 again during the regular season, I will take it. Right now we are 1-0, why the bitching?
  17. Chompsuey
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    Chompsuey Member

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    We can just go back to 2008. The mighty sooners coming into the game had scored 60+ points in 5 straight games. Man i bet their fans were on cloud 9. We all know what happened when that offense ran into a SEC defense. We only scored 24 points that game and what was the result?
  18. dontrel22
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    I don't think anyone is "not happy" with the win but I don't think it's being unreasonable to hope for a more complete team by having a relatively more explosive passing game. Why is that considered not being happy with the win? Sure we dink and dunked our way to 11 wins last season but there was a lot of luck involved that won't always go our way. It would just be nice to put inferior teams away with a dominating defense AND an above average offense. We will see what this week brings,
  19. GATORnGA31909
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    GATORnGA31909 Premium Member

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    Here is the plain and simple..We will be better on Offense this year.
  20. halleygator
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    halleygator VIP Member

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    Florida is one of a handful of schools that will ALWAYS have a top recruiting class -- as long as there is coaching stability -- due to:

    Location, Conference, History, NFL pipeline, fan support, etc.

    SO... we are always going to be able to recruit VERY GOOD offensive players regardless of whether our offense is "high octane" or not.

    Case in point: We have commitments already from the Top QB and Top WR and Top RB in 2014.

    IN FACT, it can be argued that a "stagnant" offense will HELP the UF coaches convince top notch recruits to come in and make it better.

    Thus, the offense will always have enough talent to win games in the SEC.

    KNOWING THAT... I am super pumped that our DEFENSE is always going to be one of the best in the nation under Muschamp due to the same recruiting benefits mentioned above PLUS his superior knowledge of teaching defense.

    The future is VERY BRIGHT.

    Just sit back and watch, people.

    You will see.
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