Snow in Cairo. First Time in 100 Years!!!

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by madgator, Dec 13, 2013.

  1. asuragator
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    asuragator Well-Known Member

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    Especially because Poisson regression accounts for count data containing many zeros--in this case, days/months with no significant weather events that would fit an "extreme" event classification.
    Last edited: Dec 15, 2013
  2. asuragator
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    asuragator Well-Known Member

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    Which 'warmists' (or which climate scientists) have said that extreme events "prove" global warming?
    Last edited: Dec 15, 2013
  3. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    Check the article that I linked if you can. An intrusion of Arctic air down into the northern hemisphere means that the Arctic would be warmer during the period. This is an example of a differential spatial distribution of heat, rather than necessarily an increase or decrease.

    Think of it this way: Your wife moves $1,000 from her account into your account. Now someone watching only your account would think that that your family wealth increased, right? But clearly, that's not what happened.
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  4. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    I personally know an ardent republican on welfare. I guess that means that welfare is a problem of the right...unless of course you want to deem this information "anecdotal". But then anything that does not fit the narrative is anecdotal, isn't it?
  5. vangator1
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    vangator1 Well-Known Member

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    it's warm snow.
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  6. icequeen
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    icequeen Well-Known Member

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    We probably have acid rain snow...and I know the neighbor's dog has been in my yard because I have yellow snow and green grass in the spots where the warm ____ was dropped by said dog. :mad:
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  7. gatordowneast
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    gatordowneast Well-Known Member

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    According to the left....yes. So you have your answer.
  8. G8trGr8t
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    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    Results that closely matched predictions. That has not happened.
  9. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    I doubt that this board will ever come to a definition of what "closely" mean. How many degrees difference? For how many years? Does directionality of difference matter? Not everyone can be trusted to answer these questions well. For example, there are many on this board that believe that there is basically no evidence for evolution. However, as an expert in that field, I see that they simply don't understand (or choose to ignore) the evidence for the theory.

    If it is obvious to you, a non-climate scientist, that the models are so off that they are useless, my question to you would be 'why aren't the experts able to see this as well'?
  10. madgator
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    madgator Well-Known Member

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  11. wygator
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    wygator Well-Known Member

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    Global mean temperature trend since 2002 according to Hadley Climate Research Unit (hadcrut):

    [​IMG]
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  12. oragator1
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    oragator1 Premium Member

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    I wonder why 2002 was chosen, seems a rather odd date. Maybe this is the reason?

    [​IMG]
  13. asuragator
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    asuragator Well-Known Member

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    Is your point that over a short period average surface temperatures have flattened? Everyone knows this. Maybe the climate is responding in ways that were unexpected, for example, accommodating for increasing CO2 by trapping more heat in the oceans than previously believed. Maybe the 2000s will be an outlier once more data comes in (that is why it's often misleading or just flat out wrong to single out a short time period from a much longer trend). Or maybe the 1980s and 1990s were something of an outlier. Whatever the reason, putting up a graph doesn't really advance the conversation as to why it is...or that it might lead to erroneous conclusions without more context.
    Last edited: Dec 15, 2013
  14. wygator
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    wygator Well-Known Member

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    It is fact added to various speculations. I could post additional graphs showing that the trend for the past 30 years is below the curve where Hansen, et al said that APGW would no longer be a concern.

    Showing a long term upward graph trend from 1840 is actually an argument AGAINST APGW because it shows the current warming trend began long before anyone is arguing that man's actions were affecting climate. If CO2 is the strong climate drive some claim, it doesn't make sense that we would have a decade long cooling trend, because CO2 has continued its steady increase. To me, it suggests they've overestimated CO2's influence and that natural variations still dominate.

    Also, please show me the studies showing that the warming is hiding in the ocean. I know it is being speculated, but I don't think is is evidence-based.
  15. MichaelJoeWilliamson
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    MichaelJoeWilliamson Well-Known Member

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    Yet 2013 looks to continue the trend of global climate cooling.
  16. asuragator
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    asuragator Well-Known Member

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    Fact perhaps, but ultimately lacking in needed context. The HADCRUT graph shows only land temperatures, but climate as you know is comprised of more than just land temperatures since heat is distributed throughout the entire atmosphere. Again though, unless you are trying to make a specific point, taking a shorter time period when the longer trend data is available can be very misleading.

    As for posting Hansen's predictions. We've been down this road a few times over the past few years. But I think it would be helpful that if you did, perhaps at the same time, you'd answer the questions that gatorade posed to g8trgr8t with respect to Hansen's predictions.

    It doesn't make any sense to me how you can claim that it is an argument against warming because it happened "long before anyone is [sic] arguing that man's actions were affecting climate." If a phenomenon isn't realized until it is discovered, it doesn't follow that the phenomenon didn't exist prior to its disovery. Kind of like the discovery of a new knee ligament last month. Do you think that this newly discovered ligament didn't exist before it was discovered? Of course you don't. NTL, some scientific folks did make such a discovery about warming in the 1800s.

    I think the statistics underlying time series forcasting need to be addressed. It's been my impression that decadal variations in climate science might function more like daily, monthly, yearly variations, i.e. producing very noisy models that need to be adjusted. Look at the HADCRUT4 data you posted as an example. That trend line is just a 'tendency' based on averages. But look at the actual trends and the most noticeable feature should be the variability; IOW, the statistical noise. This noise needs to be smoothed in order to make better sense of what is going on. Point being, the very notion of a linear trend does not presuppose that it is perfectly linear, especially not where variation from complex processes produces a great deal of model noise. It would follow then that even a short pause or ostensible decrease in a trend, might not be a decrease at all once more data comes available.

    I didn't make the claim as some absolute fact, I only raised it as a possibility. But here's one study since you asked. Now, would you be so kind as to answer my earlier question and point me to where someone (presumably a reputable climate scientist) has said that extreme events "prove" global warming? Thanks!
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2013
  17. Gatorrick22
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    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

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    Because the average global temperature has been declining ever since then? ;)
  18. oragator1
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    oragator1 Premium Member

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    If you look at the graph from 1840 the rise trend didn't really start until just after 1900.

    Edit:

    Here is the ocean data, it's warming faster than any time in the last 10,000 years and 15 times faster previously

    http://science.time.com/2013/11/01/oceans-warming-faster-than-they-have-over-past-10000-years/
    Last edited: Dec 15, 2013
  19. oragator1
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    oragator1 Premium Member

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    If you look at that chart there have been 2 other times of decline or stability, but the overall trend is still up.

    The sun's cycle certainly has an effect on the trends, but that doesn't mean we aren't pushing it higher over time.
  20. Gatorrick22
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    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

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    You mean this chart?


    [​IMG]

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