Snow in Cairo. First Time in 100 Years!!!

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by madgator, Dec 13, 2013.

  1. fastsix
    Offline

    fastsix Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2007
    Messages:
    6,473
    Likes Received:
    243
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    Seattle
    Ratings Received:
    +1,093
    ♫ Sleigh bells ring
    Are you listening
    In the lane
    Snow is glistening
    A beautiful sight
    We're happy tonight
    Walking in a winter wonderland ♫
  2. mdgator05
    Offline

    mdgator05 Premium Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2010
    Messages:
    6,753
    Likes Received:
    190
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +683
    Many have modeled the number of extreme events as a Poisson process for over 20 years. In a Poisson distribution, an increase in the mean coincides with an increase in variance. Poisson processes are actually pretty prevalent in natural events with the properties of count data.
  3. mdgator05
    Offline

    mdgator05 Premium Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2010
    Messages:
    6,753
    Likes Received:
    190
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +683
    Poisson distributions are no less falsifiable than a normal distribution.
    • Like Like x 1
  4. gatorev12
    Offline

    gatorev12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2009
    Messages:
    11,684
    Likes Received:
    281
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +1,509
    Extreme cold-weather events should be happening less frequently if the science behind global warming is accurate. That doesn't seem to be happening.
  5. mdgator05
    Offline

    mdgator05 Premium Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2010
    Messages:
    6,753
    Likes Received:
    190
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +683
    Why? Again, the underlying Poisson count distribution would suggest that a higher mean would be associated with a higher variance.
  6. sierragator
    Offline

    sierragator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    7,559
    Likes Received:
    82
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings Received:
    +372
    ... and sometimes it even snows in Gainesville, so what?
  7. GatorRade
    Online

    GatorRade Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    6,950
    Likes Received:
    236
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +765
    There seems to be irrevocably insurmountable barrier to understanding that the temperature of one city on one day isn't indicative of decades of planetary climate.
  8. gatorev12
    Offline

    gatorev12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2009
    Messages:
    11,684
    Likes Received:
    281
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +1,509
    Because it's a bit silly to sit here and say "atmospheric temperatures have been rising" and "earth surface temperatures have been rising" and "(pick some measurement) has been rising too"...and then turn around and say "oh yea, when it gets really cold and snows in areas it historically doesn't snow in, that also proves our theory."
  9. oragator1
    Online

    oragator1 Premium Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    12,735
    Likes Received:
    430
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +1,616
    Even the most of the more ardent anti global warming folks agree that the world is warming, but the claim is that it is a natural variance.
    So if we accept that the world is warming (regardless of reason), I don't understand the logic of your position, unless you believe the world hasn't warmed?
  10. mdgator05
    Offline

    mdgator05 Premium Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2010
    Messages:
    6,753
    Likes Received:
    190
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +683
    Only if you don't understand the underlying statistical model. Poisson models have the same parameter determining expected value and variance. So if expected value goes up, the variance also increases.
  11. G8trGr8t
    Offline

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2008
    Messages:
    14,551
    Likes Received:
    1,091
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    SW Florida
    Ratings Received:
    +2,357
    what series of events or individual events would indicate that the global warming science is wrong? anything???
    • Like Like x 1
    • Dislike Dislike x 1
  12. GatorRade
    Online

    GatorRade Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    6,950
    Likes Received:
    236
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +765
    What would indicate that it is "right"?

    I'm not an expert in climate science, so I won't claim to definitively understand what the key tenets to the theory are. However, I know enough to know that "It snowed in _______ city." shows a distinct lack of understand variance vs. means.
  13. GatorRade
    Online

    GatorRade Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    6,950
    Likes Received:
    236
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +765
    I don't believe that any science body actually claims this. However, I recently an interesting article that links the lack of sea ice to southerly advances in the Arctic front.

    http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-winters-of-our-discontent
  14. gatorev12
    Offline

    gatorev12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2009
    Messages:
    11,684
    Likes Received:
    281
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +1,509
    Most of the ardent anti-global warming folks tend to say that the current temperature fluctuations are natural variance.

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'd thought that was the entire basis of their counter-argument...?
    Last edited: Dec 14, 2013
  15. gatorev12
    Offline

    gatorev12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2009
    Messages:
    11,684
    Likes Received:
    281
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +1,509
    No, I understand what you're saying quite well.

    Do you?

    I'm not insulting your intelligence here, but I think you're a bit mistaken in what the theory's models hold. To wit: yes, there should be a greater degree of variance when calculating global temperatures. Some of the variance will undoubtedly be lower than the statistical mean (by definition).

    But this much? Therein lies the larger question.

    It doesn't snow very often in Cairo to begin with. To have this type of snowfall (on top of other record snowfall over the past few years in other areas of the world) this year would tend to indicate that the variance on the "low" end of the statistical model isn't receding as should be predicted by the theory of gradually rising temperatures. It would appear, based on the data, that the "once in a lifetime" record colds are holding current with their pre-"global warming" statistical averages. And that isn't a good sign for global warming proponents...
  16. gatorev12
    Offline

    gatorev12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2009
    Messages:
    11,684
    Likes Received:
    281
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +1,509
    The AGW theory holds that average world temperatures are increasing around the globe.

    Thus, things like "record snowfalls" and "record cold temperatures" and "record cold-weather storms" should be decreasing over time. Certainly not holding at their historical measured levels.

    And, when those events keep happening at their historical mean averages, it begs the question of whether the theory of AGW is accurate or needs further research...
  17. icequeen
    Offline

    icequeen Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 21, 2013
    Messages:
    4,872
    Likes Received:
    2,112
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Buffalo, NY
    Ratings Received:
    +3,473

    :) Yeah, not fun sometimes....but it's a nice trade off when it's in the upper 60s, low 70s in June, July and almost no rain....Think we hit 90 once the summer prior and got very close this year.

    You can always put on layers, but you can only get so naked ;)
  18. asuragator
    Offline

    asuragator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 26, 2009
    Messages:
    20,536
    Likes Received:
    4,090
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ratings Received:
    +6,082
    Mean temperatures could very well increase while the standard deviation increases as well (i.e. dispersing more widely above and below the mean), so I am not so sure that AGW theory predicts the std dev will necessarily decrease on the low end as temperatures rise. In fact, given that this is a complex system, it is more than just a little plausible to have extreme cold streaks or even record lows in various parts of the world which could be attributable to rising mean temperatures. I don't know if any are, just saying it is plausible and shouldn't be dismissed out of hand.
    Last edited: Dec 14, 2013
  19. gatordowneast
    Offline

    gatordowneast Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    11,747
    Likes Received:
    303
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +985
    Their reply will be that this event is anecdotal. Anything that does not fit the narrative....anecdotal.
    • Like Like x 1
    • Agree Agree x 1
  20. oragator1
    Online

    oragator1 Premium Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    12,735
    Likes Received:
    430
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +1,616
    That's my point.
    Whether its man made of natural variance, it's generally accepted that the world has warmed over the last 100 years. So if we accept that basic premise, I don't understand what seeing the first snowfall in 100 years proves, other than something unexpected occurred?

    This study is from the US only so it isn't global, but it makes the point...there is now a two to one ratio in the number of record high temps measured vs the number of record low temps measured nationally. The record lows are becoming less and less prevalent but still happen simply because a massive sample size means some strange and unlikely events will occur. It's really not more complicated than that.

    https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/1036/record-high-temperatures-far-outpace-record-lows-across-us

Share This Page