Simplified probabilities about national championships (Read)

Discussion in 'Swamp Gas' started by UFFL, Oct 20, 2013.

  1. UFFL
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    UFFL Well-Known Member

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    Some people on Swamp Gas spend time wondering how many championships we'd have if we still had Spurrier/still had Meyer, etc, so I decided to model our championship probabilities after a Poisson Distribution, to kind of get a look at it.
    By the way, the distribution predicts we have about a ~4.9% chance of winning 0 national titles over a 24 year time frame, given our average in a 24 year time frame, so it's meant to give a general idea, rather than an exact estimate. It also has limitations, because it allows you to predict the likelihood of 2 national titles in a year, for example.

    Probability of 0 national championships in a given year, under Spurrier: 92.1%
    Probability of 0 national championships in a given year, under Meyer: 71.65%
    Probability of 1 national championship in a given year, under Spurrier: 7.666%
    Probability of 1 national championship in a given year, under Meyer: 23.859%

    Probability of Spurrier winning 1 national title in 24 years: 27.093%
    Probability of Meyer winning 1 national title in 9 years: 14.966%
    Probability of Spurrier winning 2 national titles in 24 years: 27.068%
    Probability of Meyer winning 2 national titles in 9 years: 22.43%
    Probability of Spurrier winning 3 national titles in 24 years: 18.044%
    Probability of Meyer winning 3 national titles in 9 years: 22.404%
    Probability of Spurrier winning 4 national titles in 24 years: 9.021%
    Probability of Meyer winning 4 national titles in 9 years: 16.74%

    I stopped at 4, because both coaches were downward trending by that point. 24 years were chosen for Spurrier, and 9 for Meyer, because that's how long their tenure would be if they had never stopped coaching at UF.

    The model predicts that Spurrier was as likely to win two national championships as one, so he may have won us a second. A third or fourth seem less likely, based on the model.

    The model predicts that Meyer was as likely to win a third title as he was likely to win a second. As with Spurrier, there is significant drop-off after that.

    Take what you want from this model. Again, it isn't perfect, but it can give a decent estimate based on averages.
  2. UFFL
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    UFFL Well-Known Member

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  3. ApexNC
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    ApexNC Well-Known Member

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    I don't understand, it's more likely that Meyer will win 4 national championships than one? Or is that a typo?
  4. tommyvee
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    tommyvee Well-Known Member

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    Yes, I don't understand this either.
  5. UFFL
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    UFFL Well-Known Member

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    Basically in a span of 9 years, based on Meyer's performance, he was more likely to win 4 national titles than only 1.
  6. UFFL
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    UFFL Well-Known Member

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    It seems strange, but it works that way because his peak is around 2-3 championships in 9 years, and the model predicts a 4 championship tenure would be more likely than a 1 championship tenure. This doesn't mean that its easier to win 4 than to win 1, but based on his performance, the odds favored him more to win 4 than to only win 1.


    For example, if Michael Jordan is averaging in his career 10 free throws made per game, over the course of the season he is more likely to make 10 free throws per game than 5 free throws per game, even though just 5 is easier
  7. UFFL
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    UFFL Well-Known Member

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    If you want the probability of Meyer winning at least 1 title, rather than exactly 1, you have to subtract the probability of him winning 0 championships in 9 years (which I didn't post here) from 1. So the likelihood that Meyer wins at least one championship in 9 years is 95.006%

    That number will probably make more sense
  8. tommyvee
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    tommyvee Well-Known Member

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    Okay, got it. So it's almost a certainty that Meyer will win a National Championship at OSU if he stays there 9 years.
  9. LostReptile
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    LostReptile New Member

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    hopefully alabama and oregon win out so f$u and ohio state get shut out.
  10. UFFL
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    UFFL Well-Known Member

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    It's hard to say. Nothing is perfect, and what makes it harder is that he's at a new school, so all of the data is not nearly as useful in predicting success. Based on what we've seen though, I wouldn't be surprised if he won at least one national championship in the next 9 years
  11. corpgator
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    corpgator Well-Known Member

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    No, because he's dealing with a different set of recruits.
  12. ApexNC
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    ApexNC Well-Known Member

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    Then your analysis is silly since there is a ZERO percent chance Meyer will win only one championship in 9 years since he has already won 2 :).
  13. Spurffelbow833
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    Spurffelbow833 Premium Member

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    It's infinitely more likely because he already has 2. Especially more likely because he torched us and then ran off to a place he could rack up a lot of cheap wins and seldom feel a spasm.
  14. UFFL
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    UFFL Well-Known Member

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    LOL it means based on his average, he was that likely to only win 1. He was not very likely to only win 1, which is why he did not only win 1. Again it's a model, so it doesn't actively pick out the 2007 and 2009 games and factor them as successes, just into the average. And based on those averages, it did a decent job of predicting his success
  15. phideltdj
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    phideltdj Well-Known Member

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    Okay...let's do it for Lane Kiffin now....0% of winning a title.
  16. UFFL
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    UFFL Well-Known Member

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    You're correct

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