Senate Control in 2014 Increasingly Looks Like a Tossup

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by mocgator, Aug 1, 2013.

  1. mocgator
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    mocgator Well-Known Member

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    From the NYT of all things..

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...n-2014-increasingly-looks-like-a-tossup/?_r=0

    A race-by-race analysis of the Senate, in fact, suggests that Republicans might now be close to even-money to win control of the chamber after next year’s elections. Our best guess, after assigning probabilities of the likelihood of a G.O.P. pickup in each state, is that Republicans will end up with somewhere between 50 and 51 Senate seats after 2014, putting them right on the threshold of a majority.

    The chart below reflects our current overview of the Senate landscape, including the probability estimates. (The estimates are not based strictly on a formula but instead are best guesses, accounting for the partisan lean of each state, the quality of the prospective candidates, and approval-rating or polling data to the extent that it might be informative.) When we last conducted this exercise in February, our projection was for Republicans to win between 49 and 50 Senate seats, meaning that their standing has improved by about one seat since then.

    [​IMG]


    It then goes into detail on each stat race..
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  2. asuragator
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    asuragator Well-Known Member

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    I'm hearing Alanis Morrisette..."isn't it ironic"...

    ...a conservative posting an op by Nate Silver...holy crap! This, folks, is progress! There's hope for you afterall, moc! :laugh:

    I mean it was only last fall when all those folks on the right were poo-pooing Silver and his forecast models, relentless in their ad hominem attacks against him (think Dean Chambers of the "unskewed polls" infamy) and against those referencing his work.

    So count me among those who are both a little shocked and well, quite happy to see someone on the right now referencing his work.

    FTR, the NYT lost him, unfortunately. He's signed a big deal a week or two ago with ESPN.
  3. GatorNorth
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    GatorNorth Premium Member Premium Member

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    Senate is currently 53-45 with 2 indies who caucus with the D's.

    This graph has R's picking up 2 net seats if I'm reading properly.

    How does that give them control?
  4. Row6
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    Row6 New Member

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    Except for committee chairmanships and agenda what difference does it make? If Democrats lose control and take the page from Republican obstructionism while in the minority, it takes 60 votes to pass almost anything. I wouldn't get too excited.

    Yesterday a temporary funding and transportation bill "lost" with 53 votes for and 43 against. If republicans win I hope all the fans on TH enjoy their coming legislative juggernaut.
  5. g8orbill
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    g8orbill Gators VIP Member

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    true row-but at least Reid would not be in control
  6. diehardgator1
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    diehardgator1 Well-Known Member

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    We could pull a harry and threaten to change the rules if you Dem dont vote with us
  7. Row6
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    Row6 New Member

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    That'll be good for about 7-8 executive branch appointments, but that would actually require you hold the senate majority in 2016 and win the presidency for a change to mean anything. You've lost 5 of the last 6 popular votes for the office and haven't controlled the senate for what will be 8 years in 2015. You recently "won" the House with less total votes than democrats had nationally.
  8. g8rjd
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    g8rjd Well-Known Member

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    You know Bill, yesterday on the Senate floor Reid told the chamber to sit down and shut up. While I'm not a fan of that, I will say to his credit it was because the chamber was not in order even after the chair was asking for order and interrupting the speaker at the podium...

    ...who was a Republican.

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