Sagarin thru 10.5.13

Discussion in 'Swamp Gas' started by gatorbogey, Oct 8, 2013.

  1. gatorbogey
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    gatorbogey Active Member

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    Gators at 13th (ahead of Miami and Ohio State) and just behind UGA,...
    LSU at #5.

    factor in the predictor difference - about 2.4, plus the home advantage of 4.2, LSU should be favored by nearly 7 (6.6 to be precise)...

    FSU climbs to #3 and is only behind Bama in the 'predictor' ratings.

    http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

    College Football 2013 through games of October 5 Saturday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 4.02] [ 3.83] [ 4.28]
    1 Oregon A = 95.87 5 0 63.55( 94) 0 0 | 0 0 | 101.65 1 | 92.27 3
    2 Alabama A = 95.79 5 0 70.80( 33) 1 0 | 2 0 | 98.54 2 | 93.49 1
    3 Florida State A = 93.53 5 0 68.45( 57) 0 0 | 0 0 | 94.36 4 | 92.55 2
    4 Baylor A = 90.29 4 0 57.14( 149) 0 0 | 0 0 | 94.73 3 | 87.02 8
    5 LSU A = 89.75 5 1 74.04( 12) 0 0 | 2 1 | 90.03 5 | 89.28 4
    6 Clemson A = 87.86 5 0 68.18( 61) 0 0 | 1 0 | 87.36 11 | 88.19 5
    7 Oklahoma A = 87.68 5 0 67.48( 65) 0 0 | 2 0 | 88.31 7 | 86.86 10
    8 Stanford A = 87.42 5 0 73.45( 13) 0 0 | 2 0 | 86.85 12 | 87.83 6
    9 Texas A&M A = 87.30 4 1 69.13( 51) 0 1 | 0 1 | 88.34 6 | 86.13 11
    10 Louisville A = 86.99 5 0 57.92( 140) 0 0 | 0 0 | 88.26 8 | 85.62 14
    College Football 2013 through games of October 5 Saturday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 4.02] [ 3.83] [ 4.28]
    11 Washington A = 86.93 4 1 73.22( 14) 0 1 | 1 1 | 86.02 15 | 87.76 7
    12 Georgia A = 86.56 4 1 80.09( 2) 1 1 | 2 1 | 86.81 13 | 86.10 12
    13 Florida A = 86.23 4 1 72.37( 22) 0 0 | 0 1 | 85.47 17 | 86.88 9
    14 UCLA A = 86.16 4 0 67.45( 66) 0 0 | 0 0 | 87.40 10 | 84.83 16
    15 Ohio State A = 86.04 6 0 64.51( 84) 0 0 | 1 0 | 86.08 14 | 85.79 13
    16 Texas Tech A = 85.54 5 0 63.63( 93) 0 0 | 1 0 | 87.45 9 | 83.67 18
    17 Miami-Florida A = 83.99 5 0 63.54( 95) 0 0 | 1 0 | 85.50 16 | 82.42 19
    18 Wisconsin A = 83.90 3 2 59.23( 133) 0 0 | 0 2 | 83.05 19 | 84.63 17
    19 Missouri A = 83.55 5 0 65.17( 81) 0 0 | 0 0 | 85.15 18 | 81.91 21
    20 Arizona State A = 82.91 3 2 76.45( 7) 0 1 | 1 2 | 81.00 23 | 85.04 15
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  2. ajjaxgator
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    ajjaxgator Member

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    Bucknuts exposed by their sorry sched, why not the semiholes? They have played a laughable slate. oh sorry, Maryland was a legit top 25...errrrr.
  3. TheRaid
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    TheRaid VIP Member

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    Oregon and FSU are 0-0 vs. the top 10 and 0-0 vs. the top 30, yet are ahead of Alabama 1-0 vs. the top 10 and 2-0 vs. the top 30, and Clemson, which is 1-0 vs. the top 30. Meanwhile, UF is 0-1 vs. the top 30 and Miami is 1-0 vs. the top 30 and Miami beat UF, but UF is ahead of Miami.

    These rankings are ludicrous.
  4. UF24ou14
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    UF24ou14 Active Member

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    There are a few teams ahead of osu with weaker schedules. What exactly does the predictor mean that has us 9?
  5. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    It is still early in the season for these computer rankings to really make sense. The more games are played, the more sense they should make.
  6. SmootyGator
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    SmootyGator Well-Known Member

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    One of the good things about the BCS... It's so hard to tell early on. Big wins don't seem so big later on in the season and big losses don't look as bad (sometimes).

    The funny thing is that after 1 week of football, the statistically best offense always played the statistically worst defense. Happens every year. Things always sort themselves out as the season goes along. We're not even half way done with the season, so there is a lot of things that we're going to learn!
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  7. corpgator
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    corpgator Well-Known Member

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    The predictor is all that matters and it has us at 9.
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  8. Gatorrick22
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    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

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    That is so true too. Our loss to Miami isn't a season end-er/BCS bowl killer.
  9. trufloridagator
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    trufloridagator VIP Member

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    The BCS uses Elo Chess.

    Sent from my iPhone using GatorCountry
  10. trufloridagator
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    trufloridagator VIP Member

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    FSUs road wins are worth a lot when dealing with a small sample size since pitt and bc dont totally suck in the rankinfs as of yet. It won't matter if they lose at Clemson, and if they win they will probbly be deservedly 2 or 3 I'm elo chess.

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  11. corpgator
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    corpgator Well-Known Member

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    All that matters for determining the future outcome of games. If we win out, we'll have the highest computer rating, so I never pay attention to the ELO. The predictor tells us our true strength.

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