Not sure where those stats come from. Martin was 51% from 2 last year and is 53% for his career, and Clayton was at 51%, too. Those are terrific numbers. Also, I think we should expect big jumps offensively from Condo and Haugh. Condo wasn’t very efficient in the post last year, but he has terrific post moves, gets to the foul line, and will only improve after playing major minutes as a freshman in his first year of US hoops. Haugh also shot a team-best 65% in conference play on 2s. I actually like think we will be a better finishing team and more efficient from 2 than we were a year ago.
Keeping fingers crossed that Coach Golden and staff are keeping tabs on Christian Anderson, Jr. from Oak Hill Academy. He averaged 21.5 ppg and 46% on 3's this past season. Had been committed to Michigan since his sophomore season, and de-committed after the firing of Juwan Howard. Although slight, he is a lights out shooter who could provide instant offense off the bench. Haven't read anything about where he has visited since backing off his Michigan pledge. We recently lost Lorenzo Cason to Michigan (he had previously committed to Dusty May at FAU).
In fairness Clayton, Martin and Richard all shot much better from 3 the year before and have higher career 3 pt shooting percentages than what they had last year. If each of them just got back to their average we would be a very good 3 pt shooting team and if each of them matched their career high for a season in 3 pt% we have 3 starters that shoot over 40% from 3. I don’t disagree we may be less consistent from a points per game stand point. We do have the chance though to win games defensively and to be more explosive.
One area we may improve next season is our ability to have big spurts where we make big runs. With runs you need stops which we should get at a higher level and we have the potential to be a very good 3 point shooting team. Spurts really impact winning. While I do see some flaws with our current roster, I think we are intriguing and have a chance to be a team no one wants to play. We should be tough and if we shoot it like we are capable of we will be a handful.
Oh, I see what you did now: you took their overall fg% as their 2pt%. In fact, all three of them have been pretty terrific from 2: Martin at 53 for his career, Clayton at 49, and Richard at 58(!). The two better statistics to bear in mind are effective field goal % and 3pt rate--the first gives greater weight to three point shots, since they count for more points, and 3pt rate measures the volume of shots one takes from three against two. Golden (as most analytics wonks) thinks effective fg % is far more important for a team's efficiency on offense, while a higher 3pt rate is desirable, but could also indicate an imbalance that strict 3pt vs. 2pt averages don't tell you. In the case of effective field goal %, our kids are actually pretty darn good. Clayton was at 53% last year and for his career, Richard was 52% last year and 55% for his career, and Martin was 51% last year and 54% for his career. Generally, what you are looking for there from guards is something above 50%, with 55% being elite. Now, compare with Pullin, who was at 49% last year and 50% for his career, or Kugel, who was 45% last year and 49% for his career. By those metrics, we should be a far more efficient shooting team, largely because we return two guys and bring in another who take a high volume of threes and layups, while losing a guy took a lot of tough twos in Pullin (despite still hitting them at decent rate) and another who missed lots of easy shots at the rim or took contested threes (Kugel). The 3pt rate is a little more telling about where we my be weak. Richard took an insane 62% of his shots from the arc (56% for his career), which means his relative struggles from the arc last year (34%) pulled down his terrific 2pt shooting. Clayton's 3pt rate also shot up last year: from 42% at Iona to 54% here. That's probably a little closer to what we want and what suits is skill set. Martin is fairly similar: 55% 3pt rate last year and 57% for his career. Where this can effect you negatively is that you get to the line far less and you take fewer of the 2s that you can make effectively. Always hard to say if it is the chicken and the egg (better shooting from 2 or only took easy/open 2s?). Okay, Cliff's Notes: We may actually be a far more efficient shooting team this year overall, but we need these guys--especially Richard--to be a little more aggressive going at the rim so that they can draw more fouls or score more frequently in the paint. That will also create opportunities for others when help side defense or perimeter rotations leave guys open, which in turn should increase assist numbers for guys with traditionally lower assists. Given that Martin is a terrific straight line driver who knows how to finish in the paint, that's another thing we thought he could bring to this team. His best year was probably their deep run, when his 2p shooting was a little down (51), but his three point shooting was solid (37), his 3pt rate was at its most balanced (53) and his FT rate was his best (30).
Shoot sorry! Yes I misrepresented that...those were their overall FG% numbers. I'll edit! Yes if we look at their effective shooting % it's not as bad, as long as they can get to the FT line. My concern is that we become a 3-pt heavy shooting team and all 3 can be streaky. Martin was 0-6 from 3 in their tournament loss to Northwestern for example, Clayton can be a bit of a chucker at times and Richard can be very hot and or very cold. I really hope they don't collectively rely on jacking up shots and our frontcourt players can bring a lot more offensively, we'll need that balance Very much agree with your cliff notes about getting to the line and involving others
Yes if we can be a lot more consistent on defense we seem to have a team built for fast breaks and "spurtability" I'd still love to see us add a longer, athletic wing
And that's why Golden wants to have two legitimate post scoring threats as often as possible. If you listen to him, he says he learned a lot his second year at San Fran, where they were overly dependent upon three point shooting. That's when he brought the transfer Pate to help stabilize their offensive rebounding and post play. Losing Handlogten really does hurt us on the first score. Makes it imperative that Condon and Haugh improve in both areas. They were both good, but not great on the offensive glass. Condon had a pretty high turnover rate in the post and wasn't very efficient finishing, but drew lots of fouls. Haugh finished at a great rate and avoided turnovers, but absolutely depended upon good passes to set him up (only Handlogten had a lower usage rate). I am not quite as optimistic about Chinyelu and Alexis offensively. They are both good, though not great offensive rebounders who can finish at the rim, but don't get to the line a ton and tend to turn the ball over. Alexis did have nice assist and usage rates, though that may have been the product of the offense. Not sure I see us running lots of offense through either one of them.
When I watch players like Franz Wagner (6'10) and Wembanyama (7'4) bring up the basketball like guards, I think of all the international talent out there. Guys who play in very organized systems at a young age and who can handle the ball, shoot, know sound fundamentals, etc...that the overseas market is still so untapped in today's NCAA. We're an American school so it's understandable that aside from Condo and Kublickas (the German Consonant before and now with Chinyelu, though through the portal) it makes sense that all our players are American and we focus on the transfer portal for player "acquisitions" - but, there are so many good players around the world now that would love to get a shot at making the NBA and playing and hopefully excelling in the SEC would be a great platform for them. WIth the NIL they can now come get that opportunity AND get paid - not to mention if they were part of a pro system overseas there's no more concern over eligibility. Yes, guys like Chinyelu were born overseas and often players like that come to the US for high school, so that they can get exposure and recruited to Div 1 schools (also he was part of the NBA Academy Africa, so had that exposure), but there are still so many good players that either mature late or for other reasons don't get recognized over here that it's worth it to start targeting more of them. This transfer portal market - both in losing players to the market and getting players from the market - is obviously the main traders' market now, but I wonder if that really needs to be the case for everyone. Rather than all chase the same talent, and in most cases having to try and outbid for top talent, why not chase players in a different market? A market where as the Gators brand playing in the SEC we may have an advantage versus minor league pro teams that get the player little exposure to the NBA That elusive 6'8 '3 and D' wing or do it all lengthy player that the NBA covets might be easier to get elsewhere. The NBA must have at least 40-50 guys over 6'8 and over that can do it all now. Each team has at least 1-2. Jokic, Doncic, Embiid, Giannis...the top 4 players in the league are international players. Each one offers a very unique skillset, unlike anyone else in the league. Wembanyama is next in that line. Wagner led his team to the World Championships. Point is, there are so many great international players now that maybe we should be looking more closely at the rest of the planet than just in our domestic backyard. I know we have to some degree, and that's great, but perhaps that's a path we could use for our last 1-2 roster spots. Take a chance on a couple overseas guys. Maybe we find another Condo, or better. Who knows, but worth a scholarship to take a chance to strike gold
I would like to see us add one more solid offensive guard/forward to solidify our squad, preferably one that can shoot the 3.
I would like a quick as lightning pg who can shoot and defend. Doesn’t have to be the greatest pg on earth, but can make a fast break almost every time he gets the ball. He most have a great handle/dribble. And decent ft shooter. To add to this guard maybe a good size (6’6” to 6’9”) wing who has decent ability to shoot and handle the ball. If somehow the wing is tall, 6’ 9” or 6’10”, he flex to power forward if needed. I know, I am not asking much. LOL
Still a lot of players in the portal that would fit the bill. Having watch UCONN go back to back, I am sure they will get a full thirteen contributors that can defend and score. That’s why we don’t need to be at disadvantages at any position with depth.
Yet they only played 8-9 both years, and only a handful of contributors were new portal arrivals (4 the first year, 1 last year). The best teams, or at least the vast majority of them, are keeping and developing their players over multiple years (whether they get them via the prep ranks or the portal). We only have two available scholarships at present and basically have a rotation already in place when you factor in the available returnees and new portal additions. And Golden has gone on record saying he wants a younger guard/perimeter player, so I don’t expect a big signing there. This team has a great core and it’s success will largely depend upon how the returning kids develop.
When you look at our 2014 team that won 38 games and made the Final Four, and study the guys individually, you think, "This is pretty good talent but it isn't Final Four talent." Those guys just bought into the system, embraced their roles, and played multiple years together so that they were all exactly on the same page, on both ends of the floor. Good team defense doesn't happen overnight. There's a lot to be said for doing what you can to keep guys in the program.
And I think it is all the more the case in the current scene. You may be able to make a March run with a bunch of portal talent that clicks or has some favorable matchups in the tournament, but look across the board, say, at the KenPom rankings, and most of their rosters had a majority of rotation players recruited out of the freshman ranks or multi-year transfers. That's how you resist the temptation to play Fantasy Basketball with the portal. Get kids you like who can contribute and develop over 2-3 seasons, then augment them with portal rentals who fit immediate needs.
I agree, but the injury bug has gotten us the last two years under the boards. I don’t have any contacts with the staff but I will welcome any new guys they pull for next year. I like being prepared for the SEC and tournament wars. Seasons are getting longer, a full compliment allows early season playing time and working with the team to get better, even if they don’t crack the first nine players.
I agree that having another big is ideal (and it sounds like that's what Golden wants), but I also wouldn't say that you can protect yourself against losing a guy as important as Castleton or even losing Handlogten on the eve of the NCAA tournament. Those are exceptionally chance things that could happen at any position at any time, but are not terribly likely. We will fill out the roster, IMO, but I do not expect those to be high profile portal additions.
