Republicans Do Have A Plan

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by diehardgator1, Oct 1, 2013.

  1. GatorBen
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    GatorBen Well-Known Member

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    They're vulnerable in both primaries and the general as being irresponsible. Pew's poll today suggests only 40% of those who identify even as conservative republicans support the current course of action.

    The wing is apparently flat out incapable of learning lessons, so I fully expect them to repeat this idiocy on the debt ceiling, and they're not going to get anything out of either of them.

    That will go a long away towards screwing up the structural advantages the GOP has.
  2. Gatorrick22
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    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

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    Yes we, we did.
  3. Gatorrick22
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    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

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    Yes, and as Ben and I discussed on another thread the piecemeal approach might just work. Do you think that cutting funding for agencies one by one will be Harry Reid's best move? I don't think so.
  4. g8orbill
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    g8orbill Gators VIP Member

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    I think it is the other way around-the pubs come out looking like they favor the little guy and the dems like they are above the laws and favor big corps and labor unions
  5. Gatorrick22
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    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

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    I mentioned that Gretta Van Susteren had Roberts on her show two nights ago say that the House used to pass spending bill this way all the time, so this is nothing new.
  6. Gatorrick22
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    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

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    40% approval of this tactic doesn't necessarily translate to 40% support in the coming election. That's definitely apples to oranges.
  7. g8orbill
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    g8orbill Gators VIP Member

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    when you get totally down to it-this is on the Senate and Reid for 2 reasons-the House passed a budget based upon the agreed upon spending limits-the Senate passed a budget for the first time in a bunch of years and it increased spending by about a trillion dollars over 10 years-the house offered to meet with them on the budget and Reid refused

    had the Senate just done its job back when the budget was being done we would not be here now-then when you see how the Senate refuses even now to have any negotiations-they proved they wanted the shut down
  8. GatorBen
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    GatorBen Well-Known Member

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    Completely agree that intervening events could change things, but having your signature legislative action be something that even a majority of your own base doesn't support - and everyone else strongly opposes - doesn't exactly bode well for electoral support.
  9. asuragator
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    asuragator Well-Known Member

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    That's not a plan. That's just grasping. And folks like you just keep lapping it up as if this is intelligent, responsible behavior.
  10. GatorBen
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    GatorBen Well-Known Member

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    Uh, think you're reading fake news again Bill.

    The Senate has been trying to go to conference for months, the House first moved to appoint a conference team at the 10:20 PM Rules meeting last night.
  11. oragator1
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    oragator1 Well-Known Member

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    The house voted them down today, Boehner couldn't even get the votes he needed for that from his caucus, that's how good an idea it was.

    I think the endgame is becoming clear. This will roll another week or week and a half, we will come closer to the debt ceiling and everyone will want to get it done because that is a date that Boehner knows can't slip no matter how hard they yell...they will agree to pass some watered down bill bill like the tax waiver for medical equipment, in exchange you will get a CR, and everyone will declare victory. Obama will say he gave up next to nothing while the republicans looked like lunatics, the pubs will say they got some of the ACA changed and changed the debate, and then we will have about a month of negotiations on a larger deal that will end with another crappy deal that moves us incrementally towards lower spending and maybe marginally higher revenues.
  12. Gatorrick22
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    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

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    You're confused... that vote is for the upcoming debt ceiling. Nothing can be voted on that until this Obama-scam CR is first taken care of first. And by then the Pubs will have dirty little Harry by his short hairs in that he will be giving a bill that funds only the interest on the debt, and only that, until the Pubs get the Senate to approve spending cuts for the new budget. If Harry refuses to pass the interest only bill the U.S.A. defaults on it's loan obligations and all hell breaks loose.

    Cruz is looking more and more like a genius.
  13. GatorBen
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    GatorBen Well-Known Member

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    Wait, what vote is for the debt ceiling?

    And there's no reason a debt ceiling bill couldn't be passed before a CR is. If the CR fight stretches out that long it will be the very height of ridiculousness, but there's no reason that they necessarily have to be passed in that order.

    Part of me does, however, suspect that part of the reason Boehner is letting this drag out may be because he's willing to (and recognizes that he will probably have to) drop the Hastert Rule for a debt ceiling bill and knows that dropping the Hastert Rule on both of these issues, no matter how much sense it would make to do so, would probably spell the end of his speakership. If that's the case, I don't entirely disagree with it because the debt ceiling bill is far more important to actually pass in terms of long term consequences of failing to do so, but still disappointing that the Party is behaving badly enough to put him in that bind.
  14. oragator1
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    oragator1 Well-Known Member

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    Actually they could raise the debt ceiling tomorrow if they wanted to, they just wouldn't have the money to have it matter.

    But the order in which things will happen will be - first they agree to pass the watered down bill that eliminates the tax on medical devices (or some other minor concession) as part of the ACA. In exchange, Obama gets his CR with a tight timeline and the debt ceiling increase (hence why I said late next week is the reason things finally start to get done, because the debt ceiling hits Oct 17, that's the real date that matters, the government shut down stinks but it's not much more than an inconvenience nationally, the debt ceiling is the real deal). But there is some provision similar to the sequester where they have until the end of the year to negotiate a longer term broad outline of the budget, and if they can't agree there are penalties. Everyone fights for a few months, the absolute minimum needed to satisfy the terms is passed, and we wait 10 months to go through the whole thing again.

    It's happened the last few years, no reason to think it won't happen again.
  15. GatorBen
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    GatorBen Well-Known Member

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    I highly doubt the US defaults, even if (when?) the House manages to screw up playing political chicken with the debt ceiling.

    Why? Because unlike the continuing resolution, there are a number of potential outs the White House can play to bypass Congress on it completely as a last resort. The Tea Party will howl like mad men if it happens, but there are fairly good - if untested - legal arguments for doing so, and last time we played this stupid game the administration hinted that it may be willing to use them if it has to.
  16. Gatorrick22
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    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

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    The majority of the majority won't let Boehner down. So the Hestert rule is a moot point.
  17. Gatorrick22
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    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

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    I doubt Obama has the balls to circumvent the House on this very important Constitutional right that the House as, and is written into law, to prevent a king like rule by one POTUS regardless of who they are.
  18. GatorBen
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    GatorBen Well-Known Member

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    I mean if the conference refuses to consider debt ceiling increases without their joke list of demands (the one that circulated a few days ago) attached to it, I suspect Boehner will put what is more or less a clean increase on the floor and it will pass. He's certainly being held captive by the conference right now, but his career in leadership suggests that he's not a complete idiot, and he has a bit of a history of letting bills that didn't pass the Hastert Rule through on what he views as emergency issues.
  19. GatorBen
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    GatorBen Well-Known Member

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    One of the arguments for doing so is that where it is "written into law" is itself unconstitutional. :wink:

    In layman's terms, essentially the argument is that Congress doesn't have a "constitutional right" to cause a default on public debt, and that in fact it is affirmatively unconstitutional for them to do so.

    And at the end of the day, he's got a good enough messaging apparatus to sell the idea that it isn't exactly "king like rule" to pay the bills that Congress has already told you to pay.
  20. Gatorrick22
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    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

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    The House today passed three bills all rejected by Harry Reid unequivocally. The first bill defunded Obama-scam completely... the second delayed the person mandate... and the third stripped the exemptions and subsidies for the congress and their staff. All of which were rejected, so what do you expect the House to do now?

    I hope they stop negotiating with themselves for one and I hope they ride this CR delay until the POTUS meets with them like he's met with foreign terrorists organizations. that's the least he can do.

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