Recruiting Rankings Don't Mean Squat?

Discussion in 'Awesome Recruiting' started by philip214, Feb 6, 2014.

  1. gator_n_sc
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    gator_n_sc Well-Known Member

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    It shows when you look at oregon who in 2012 had the #16 class and a 3.3 star ranking and the #22 class in 2013 with a avg. Star ranking of 3.2 yet they were every bit one of the best schools in the nation each of those years. They get players who fit their system they run and they coach them up and put them in position to be successful on the field.:)
  2. gator_n_sc
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    gator_n_sc Well-Known Member

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    From 2010 to 2013 oregon went 45-5 and played for a natty. They have definitely looked like one of the best teams in the country through that period. They had more losses than 5* players through that same period.

    Between 2010-2013 oregon recruited 86 players. Four 5* and 36 4* or basically avg. One 5* and eight 4* out of 21 recruits each year. Compare that to USCw had five 5* in 2013 alone. But have not fared nowhere near oregon success.
  3. UFreak
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    UFreak Well-Known Member

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    I think when a team has scholarship numbers limitations, it's kind of a red herring. Obviously, if you are limited in numbers in recruiting it will cause depth issues. So you can't really count USC because of the extraneous variable of probation. For those who dispute that having 3-star players on your roster or recruiting 3-star players is stupid, that is ridiculous. Coaches' player evaluations are very important and it is not a viable practice to only recruit 4-star players or better because there aren't as many of them as there are 3-star players and 3-star players are good players, anyway.
    That being said, if you have 22 scholarships to give in a given year and you land a class of only 5- and 4-star players, you increase the chances of having a successful class as measured by future NFL talent. And I think that is a pretty good measure. There is verifiable data that shows that the higher the star ranking, the greater the likelihood (from a percentage standpoint) of that player making it to the NFL.
    I think that chart (or the link to it) is somewhere earlier in this thread. Because this thread was hot about a month or so ago.

    That's all I ever said. I never implied that 3-star players should not be recruited.
  4. gator_n_sc
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    gator_n_sc Well-Known Member

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    Of course. Not saying had said anything in particular. I actually just started looking into oregon recruiting numbers, because let's face it outside of alabama, oregon has probably been the best team in the country the last 4-5 seasons.

    And had it not been for stanford, they may have played for 3 natty ' s in that time. Yet despite that they have only gotten four 5* in 4 years.
    That's a pretty remarkable job. It shows a good innovative offense that plays to its players skill strengths and a good coaching can yield the same results as a top five class. Oregon only hovers around 25- 15 - ish class ranking each year.
  5. UFreak
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    UFreak Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure that disproves the point really. How many teams outside the top 25 recruiting rankings have played or are in the running for nattys annually? Recruiting rankings matter. The closer you are to the top, the better chance you give yourself to win big.

    I'm not sure we disagree???
  6. gator_n_sc
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    gator_n_sc Well-Known Member

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    Not at all. I was simply posting for some who scoff at the players like Worton or sousa that we got because they were three stars. I loved it in 2010 when we got like 4 or 5 5 *.

    But to me, the biggest thing to me is getting kids who can fit in but scheme, coaching/development and of course health are biggest factors for success because obviously a coach of a major football program will not recruit bums regardless of their star ranking.

    It's just teams like stanford, UCF, Louisville, oregon, baylor. Have shown you don't have to have all the top talent to win, and it's not the end of the world if you don't get 80% of your class as "elite" though I will say bama class this year was insane. They set a unprecedented example of a recruiting class nearly all their recruits were #1-3 @ their position. Crazy .....six 5* smh. It would be sweet if we knocked them off next year with our up tempo offense that saban hates so much:)
  7. gator_n_sc
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    gator_n_sc Well-Known Member

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    Truthfully there are only about 5-8 teams that even have a chance to play for a natty annually since everyone outside of the sec pretty much has to go undefeated to even get there. And the sec cannibalizes it self every year with our gauntlet of top ranked teams to play each week.

    Oregon, Ohio state, Florida State, bama/lsu/ auburn or whoever wins the sec. Texas/Oklahoma basically are the usual suspects. With maybe a sleeper team that arises which usually loses at least 1 game near the end to kill any chance of a title shot. (Example a: baylor)
  8. slayerxing
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    slayerxing Premium Member

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    I will also say this about this topic:

    #1. When UF has a ton of high profile recruits, it doesn't come up very often on this board. In fact, most will boast that a national title is imminent and our rivals are screwed.

    #2. When UF does NOT have a ton of high profile recruits (or what people feel is a lack of high profile recruits compared to our rivals) people start talking about the "right players" with the "right attitude" that have the "right fit" for our scheme, and that our coaches know what they're doing and star rankings don't matter. Just FYI, Tennessee fans have been saying THAT CRAP for YEARS until this year and now the rankings matter again, because guess what, they killed it on the recruiting trail.

    The reality is, that although the recruiting services aren't 100% right, they are certainly more right than they are wrong, and missing on high profile recruits, especially as compared to our primary rivals, is a HUGE concern. For example, Cook and Lane are "statistically" much more likely to have productive careers than their replacements, Powell, Sousa, Porter, and Worton, etc.

    So we can offer whatever excuses we like about how 3 star players are just as good or underrated (which they can be, obviously), but playing the odds, you would much rather have a higher rated class. And saying otherwise, or saying stars don't matter, etc.. add excuses in the blank, etc. is weak sauce. It's what fanbases are forced to do to justify poorer recruiting.

    Ultimately, it's all on the coaches now.
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  9. gator_n_sc
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    gator_n_sc Well-Known Member

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    cook will "statistically" have a better chance
    Lane's stats just "statistically" sucked:D

    Compared to the "replacements" that is if we're gonna use statistics;)
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  10. gator_n_sc
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    And I'm not debating anything. I just jumped in to explain what a poster was meaning only to look back and see this thread had been idle for a couple weeks :)

    I do agree when he says why "gripe" when we get players like Sousa or worton? They statistically had better careers than lane but are ranked a little lower. I think it's great we got them, hell we stole both from the champs,so obviously they were good enough for them, oh but that's right, Jimbo was trying to get rid of them. You see where I going we this?

    We should always pursue top talent 5* galore but those players are truly ranked by the coaches on their own recruit board based off their own evaluations not a website rating. Those recruiting websites are for the fans. We truly don't know where all the perceived targets are ranked on our boards.

    We lost a couple of possible good players but I don't think the drop off will be like some fear.
  11. demosthenes
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    demosthenes Well-Known Member

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    Frankly you know you have an untenable point when you cite a team on probation and lead by a coach that everyone outside of USC recognized as a failure.

    The problem you have is that you're assuming that people arguing the impact of recruiting rankings don't think there's anything else at play. Coaching, injuries, amount of experienced players, schedule, etc. all have an impact too.

    I honestly can't believe people still argue that rankings don't mean anything when numerous articles over the years have shown a significant correlation between success on the field and recruiting rankings.
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  12. demosthenes
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    demosthenes Well-Known Member

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    And I'd put coaching and talent as 1a and 1b. As an Oregon season ticket holder I've seen first hand what scheme and coaching can do to mask deficiencies in talent.
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  13. NoahBeanBizzel
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    NoahBeanBizzel Well-Known Member

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    Lane reportedly had inconsistent play at the QB position, something that can obviously hinder a player from putting up the kind of numbers we would think a prospect that highly-ranked would be putting up on a weekly basis. High school numbers only tell a fraction of the story.

    Sousa and Worton are both polished receivers, who you can watch and tell are both very well coached. However, both appear to have a ceiling that might be a bit lower than some of the other receivers we've seen in this year's class. The talent at corner in the SEC is by far the best in college football, and you have to wonder if either is a talented enough receiver to consistently win one-on-one matchups against some of the elite DBs in this conference. Some figure that both will line up in the slot at the next level. We'll see.

    But we are transitioning to an offense that will open up doors for guys like Powell, Worton and Sousa. They can absolutely hurt a defense if you can use their skills to create mismatches and/or get them "out in space", a big part of what spread, hurry-up offenses try to do to put stress on a defense. However, we need to bring in and develop receivers who command double teams, CAN win one-on-ones on the outside against the elite corners in SEC play, and force the defense to account for them on every snap. Basically what Meyer referred to as, "an X-factor". I'm not sure we got one of them in this class, and I'm really not sure we have a guy like that on scholarship right now. Certainly nobody proven.
  14. NoahBeanBizzel
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    Also, the problem isn't really Lane and Cook; it's missing out on guys like that in three out of the last four cycles. Sam Watkins, Kelvin Benjamin, Diggs and Agholor, Cook, Lane, Derrick Henry, and I know I'm missing several other obvious big names we were at least in on but didn't sign.

    Factor that in with all the injuries, and that's why we've been chilling outside the top-100 for the last several years offensively. Statistically we would probably have put up slightly better numbers in other conferences, but that's not the reality of our situation.
  15. gator_n_sc
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    gator_n_sc Well-Known Member

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    I guess a positive would be that at least we are not the only ones who missed on those guys since they each only signed with 1 school but was certainly courted by many:)

    I would have loved to had those guys but they didn't want to be gators.

    I say boohoo and move on. We got 2 productive receivers who wanted to be here. Once our offense starts clicking top talent will come.
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  16. gator_n_sc
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    Dont know how ypu came to that conclusion from my post. You must be misunderstanding my posts. I don't disagree that you have a better chance of success with top talent. I simply joined in (eat her late) to help explain what a poster meant.

    I did however point out that complaining about landing guys like Sousa and worton (who have produce thus far) is silly. And frankly a bit disrespectful to the recruits. It in no way implies we are headed towards mediocrity. They were 1 or 2 tenths of a point from being considered 4* so I don't see the big deal. 3* to 5* are great gets to me.

    We also need to take into account our coaches own evaluations of these players, not some website for fans. I would think college coaches would be better at evaluating players than a website analyst.

    Getting coach roper, if it works is our biggest gain. Because like you said coaching is what closes that gap between 3* and 5*. Getting these players in positions to succeed is important.

    We just picked up 2 of the best QBs in the nation, that plus a good offensive scheme usually starts attracting top flight WR and RB.

    I say get them on the field and reserve judgement until we all see them play on the college level. Until then, stars and rankings are more like predictions of potential. Because whether your a 3 or 5 * if they don't work hard and improve and get good coaching they won't succeed at this level on talent and potential alone. :)
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  17. Tebowism0823
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    Watch your tongue mister. This is a family site ;)
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  18. Tebowism0823
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    So basically talent and coaching matter. Play ball :)
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  19. gator_n_sc
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    gator_n_sc Well-Known Member

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    Haha. "Rather late". I'm telling you what, these damn smart phones.
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  20. gatorcity
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    lol yeah either way its win-win for UF huh? Either we are atop the ranking...or we're not but we've found every diamond in the rough out there. I believe thats called "spinning it". I'd expect to read a spin like that on gatorzone.com

    The problem is even when we have highly ranked classes they haven't panned out and lived up anywhere close to that high ranking. So what are we going to do when we only have a "B" class and not an "A" class (especially on the offensive side of things where we've badly missed on too many of the top flight talents we desperately need).

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