Recruiting Rankings Don't Mean Squat?

Discussion in 'Awesome Recruiting' started by philip214, Feb 6, 2014.

  1. philip214
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    philip214 VIP Member

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    Posted this in the Insider Forum but thought it was a great read.

    http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/eye-on-college-football/21641769

    Nice summary for those that don't want to read the entire article.

    By comparing the number of incoming signees from 2008 to 2012 to the number eventually honored at the highest level, we can arrive at these odds:

    Odds of Becoming an All-American, by Recruiting Ranking
    5–Star: 1 in 4.
    Top 100: 1 in 6.
    4–Star: 1 in 16.
    3–Star: 1 in 56.
    2–Star: 1 in 127.
    All FBS Signees: 1 in 45.

    Or, a more succinct way of looking at it:

    [​IMG]
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  2. uflawyer
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    uflawyer Well-Known Member

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    One missing piece of the puzzle that skews the numbers is exposure. Most All Americans come from schools with lots of exposure on TV. Most 5 stars go to schools with lots of TV exposure. Not a single 2013 All American is from a D-II school, and most are from high profile programs. I think the better measurement is to look how many stars the guys in the NFL have. It is a more even playing filed to get to the NFL, which is why guys like Jerry Rice from Mississippi Valley State make it in the league and then in the Hall of Fame.
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  3. gatorfan62
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    gatorfan62 Active Member

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    ESPN said yesterday that every 5* recruit that Saban has had at Bama went on to become a first round pick.
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  4. grant1
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    grant1 Well-Known Member

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    Saw a study a few years ago regarding the number of stars players had on the 2 Super Bowl teams of that year. The vast majority were 3 stars and they were now starting in the SB.
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  5. philip214
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    philip214 VIP Member

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    See I don't think that is what high school rankings are meant to do. I think they are projecting success at the next level (from high school to college) and not high school to the NFL. Heck, the evaluation from college to the NFL is pretty difficult.
  6. jaxgator1991
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    jaxgator1991 Well-Known Member

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    half of the top 50 high school players go on to play in the NFL. Heard it mentioned on the radio today, pretty interesting. rankings matter, development and personality take it to the next level.
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  7. floridavol29
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    floridavol29 Active Member

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    I find that hard to believe. Using Rivals its not even close to accurate.
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  8. UFreak
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    UFreak Well-Known Member

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    Well, there are a lot more three star players than five star players each high school recruiting cycle, so that stands to reason. The right measure to use is what percentage of five star players and what percentage of three star players.
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2014
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  9. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    That is impressive as hell. If accurate, he's doing a great job evaluating talent and character.
  10. UFreak
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    UFreak Well-Known Member

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    Per Rivals study conducted in 2012:

    five-star players go in the first round at a rate of about 1 in 6.5 — that is, one of every 6.5 five-star signees goes on to become a first-rounder — almost 13 times better than the average for all players, which consistently hovers around one first-rounder for every 83 signees across the board.
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  11. klgator
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    klgator Active Member

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    You might add and developing it.
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  12. demosthenes
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    demosthenes Well-Known Member

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    Disagree. We're talking about college playing ability not how they do after college. Are you going to discount Weurffel and Tebow's college success since neither made it in the NFL?

    Besides, even if you look at the numbers for the NFL the higher a player is ranked the more likely they will play in the NFL.
  13. gatorfan62
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    gatorfan62 Active Member

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    I'm sure they were referring to ESPN *ratings. That says a lot about ESPN's ability to rate talent as well. Nice recruiting tool when you can tell a 5* recruit that every that comes to Bama gets drafted in the first round.
  14. G8R8U2
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    G8R8U2 Well-Known Member

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    I've got a few stats too...

    These 3 teams have won 7 National Championships In The Last Decade+, and this is how many 3* players they've taken in a decade of recruiting (Using Rivals)...

    LSU
    2004 - 11 of 26 (coming off a NC)
    2005 - 5 of 13
    2006 - 12 of 26
    2007 - 5 of 26
    2008 - 13 of 26 (coming off a NC)
    2009 - 9 of 24
    2010 - 13 of 29
    2011 - 10 of 23
    2012 - 14 of 23
    2013 -9 of 26
    Totals - In the last decade LSU has taken 101 three star or lower players out of 242... or 42%.

    Bama

    2004 - 23 of 29
    2005 - 25 of 31
    2006 - 11 of 23
    2007 - 15 of 25
    2008 - 10 of 32
    2009 - 10 of 28
    2010 - 10 of 26 (coming off a NC)
    2011 - 6 of 23
    2012 - 9 of 26 (coming off a NC)
    2013 - 8 of 25 (coming off a NC)
    Totals - In the last decade Bama has taken 127 three star or lower players out of 268... or 47%.

    UF

    2004 - 11 of 23
    2005 - 10 of 18
    2006 - 6 of 27
    2007 - 7 of 27 (coming off a NC)
    2008 - 6 of 22
    2009 - 5 of 17 (coming off a NC)
    2010 - 6 of 27
    2011 - 8 of 19
    2012 - 9 of 22
    2013 - 13 of 29
    Totals - In the last decade UF has taken 81 three star or lower players out of 231... or 35%.

    [​IMG] Hooda Thunkit?
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  15. UFreak
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    UFreak Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure what your point is? Each year there are a lot more three star players than five star players. Teams have to recruit three star players. There simply aren't many five star players, it is reserved for the most rare of high school athletes. There are fewer four stars than three stars, as well, same idea. No one is saying not to recruit three star players. The thing is that you increase your odds of having a more successful team the more that you get five star players.

    Forgive me if I misunderstood your post.
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  16. G8R8U2
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    G8R8U2 Well-Known Member

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    Even better, here are the Star Rankings of the 5 National Champion starting teams from 2006-2010 (I'm only going to use Rivals because it's easiest to access older rankings)...

    2006 - UF
    POS ## OFFENSE
    WR 81 Baker, D. - 3*
    WR 5 Caldwell, A. - 5*
    WR/RB 8 Harvin, P. - 5*
    WR 6 Cornelius, J. - 4*
    LT 75 Trautwein, P. - 3*
    LG 63 Tartt, J. - 3*
    C 79 Rissler, S. - 3*
    RG 67 Miller, D. - 4*
    RT 73 Medder, C. - 3*
    TE 7 Ingram, C. - 4*
    QB 12 Leak, C. - 4*

    POS ## DEFENSE
    DE 91 Harvey, D. - 5*
    DT 95 McDonald, R. - 3*
    DT 93 Harris, S. - 3*
    DE 94 Moss, J. - 5*
    SLB 30 Everett, E. - 4*
    MLB 40 Siler, B. - 4*
    LCB 22 Lewis, R. - 3*
    RCB 28 Smith, R. - 2*
    RCB 18 McCollum, T. - 2*
    SS 19 Joiner, T. - 3*
    FS 1 Nelson, R. - 4* (JUCO)
    Totals - Two 2* players, Nine 3* players, Seven 4* players, and Four 5* players - Half the starters on the 2006 NC team were three stars or less. Average player ranking 3.59 stars.

    2007 - LSU
    Pos ## OFFENSE

    B 15 Matt Flynn - 4*
    RB 18 Jacob Hester - 2*
    WR 2 Demetrius Byrd - 4*
    WR 1 Brandon LaFell - 3*
    TE 89 Keith Zinger - 3*
    WR 9 Early Doucet - 5*
    LT 70 Ciron Black - 3*
    LG 79 Herman Johnson - 4*
    C 74 Brett Helms - 3*
    RG 65 Lyle Hitt - 3*
    RT 71 Carnell Stewart - 4*

    Pos ## DEFENSE
    DE 93 Tyson Jackson - 3*
    DT 72 Glenn Dorsey - 4*
    DT 90 R Jean-Francois - 4*
    DE 49 Kirston Pittman - 4*
    WLB 35 Luke Sanders - 4*
    MLB 48 Darry Beckwith - 4*
    SLB 7 Ali Highsmith - 3*
    CB 19 Jonathan Zenon - 3*
    CB 21 Chevis Jackson - 3*
    SS 16 Craig Steltz - 4*
    FS 27 Curtis Taylor - 3*
    Totals - One 2* player, Ten 3* players, Ten 4* players, One 5* player - Half the starters on the 2007 NC team were 3 stars or less. Average player ranking 3.50 stars.

    2008 - UF
    POS ## OFFENSE
    WR/RB 2 Demps, J. - 4*
    WR 9 Murphy, L. - 3*
    WR 11 Cooper, R. - 4*
    LT 75 Trautwein, P. - 3*
    LG 57 Johnson, C. - 5*
    C 56 Pouncey, Ma. - 4*
    RG 55 Pouncey, Mi. - 4*
    RT 77 Watkins, J. - 3*
    TE 81 Hernandez, A. - 4*
    QB 15 Tebow, T. - 5*
    WR 83 Nelson, D. - 4*
    * WR/RB 1 Harvin, P. - 5* - Didn't start but obviously was top contributor.

    POS ## DEFENSE
    DE 94 Trattou, J. - 4*
    NT 90 Marsh, L. - 3*
    DT 9S Sanders, T. - 4*
    DE 49 Cunningham, J. - 4*
    SLB 40 Hicks, B. - 4*
    MLB 51 Spikes, B. - 5*
    WLB 41 Stamper, R. - 4*
    CB 29 Jenkins, Ja. - 4*
    CB 5 Haden, J. - 4*
    SS 35 Black, A. - 4*
    FS 2W Wright, M. - 4*
    Totals - Four 3* players, Fifteen 4* players, Four 5* players - No 2 ways about it, this was an unbelievable team; also a rather rare collection of great players. Average player ranking 4.00 stars.

    2009 - Bama
    POS ## OFFENSE
    LT 77 James Carpenter - 4*
    LG 78 Mike Johnson - 4*
    C 73 William Vlachos - 3*
    RG 75 Barrett Jones - 4*
    RT 79 Drew Davis - 2*
    TE 84 Colin Peek - 3*
    WR 15 Darius Hanks - 3*
    QB 12 Greg McElroy - 3*
    RB 22 Mark Ingram - 4*
    WR 8 Julio Jones - 5*
    WR 4 Marquis Maze - 3*

    POS ## DEFENSE
    DE 97 L. Washington - 4*
    NG 62 Terrence Cody - 3* (JUCO)
    DE 95 B. Deaderick - 3*
    CB 23 Robby Green - 4*
    MLB 25 Rolando McClain - 4*
    CB 24 Marquis Johnson - 4*
    JACK 32 Eryk Anders - 0* NR - Was going to walk on at Ole Miss when Saban offered him a scholly around NSD 2005.
    LC 28 Javier Arenas - 3*
    RC 3 Kareem Jackson - 4*
    SS 4A Mark Barron - 4*
    FS 27 Justin Woodall - 4*
    Totals - One NR 0* player, One 2* player, Eight 3* players, Eleven 4* players, and One 5* player - Nearly half the starters on the 2009 NC team are 3* or less, including 1 player who was a 0*. Average player ranking 3.41 stars.

    2010 - Auburn
    POS ## OFFENSE
    QB 2 Cam Newton - 5*
    RB 23 O. McCalebb - 4*
    HB 43 Lutzenkirchen - 4*
    HB 32 Eric Smith - 3*
    WR 18 Kodi Burns - 4*
    WR 81 Terrell Zachery
    LT 73 Lee Ziemba - 4*
    LG 66 Mike Berry - 4*
    C 50 Ryan Pugh - 4*
    RG 57 Byron Isom - 3*
    RT 75 Brandon Mosley - 4* - as a TE.
    * RB 5 Michael Dyer - 5* - Didn't start but played a lot.

    POS ## DEFENSE
    LE 45 Antoine Carter - 3*
    DT 98 Zach Clayton - 2*
    DT 90 Nick Fairley - 3* (JUCO)
    RE 94 Nosa Eguae - 3*
    LLB 46 Craig Stevens - 4*
    MLB 17 Josh Bynes - 4*
    LCB 14 D. Washington - 3*
    LCB 22 T'Sharvan Bell - 4*
    S 4 Zac Etheridge - 3*
    S 26 Mike McNeil - 4*
    RCB 15 Neiko Thorpe - 3*
    Totals - One 2* player, Eight 3* players, Eleven 4* players, and Two* 5* players. 9 of the 22 starters (+ 1 sub) on the 2010 NC team were 3 stars or less. Average player ranking 3.48 stars.
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2014
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  17. G8R8U2
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    Seems like you understand the point just fine; there are quite a few more 3* players available than 5* players, and every team MUST have 3* players in their class.

    The same folks who cry any time we sign a 3* kid are the same ones who don't seem to get the point; that signing 3* players is not only unavoidable, but several coaches/recruiters (including Saban) have opined that having a mixed class of elite talent and lunchpail types is optimal... and his classes bear that out.
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  18. jaxgator1991
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    jaxgator1991 Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for all the information. I think you are missing a huge point. there are so many more 3* players than 4/5* players. Rivals only has 33 5* in this whole class !!!! so only about 10% of the top 300 players are 5* guys. I don't know how many four stars are out there, don't feel like looking it up, but I will almost guarantee you that there are more 3* than 4 and 5 combined, probably twice as many honestly. From your stats it is easy to think the way you do, but you have to dig a little deeper than a little more common sense when it comes down to the number of players at each star level. Awesome info, it was cool to know but really all it did was prove you wrong.
  19. G8R8U2
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    G8R8U2 Well-Known Member

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    I've been compiling stats like this for the last 10 years.

    I've dug as deep as it goes; in fact I've even gone to each of those teams' sites to compile and double-check information.

    You think I could've come up with those posts in the space of the last 10 minutes otherwise?

    My point with the 2 sets of numbers is two-fold. First, signing 3* players is something every successful program does, and will almost always do. And second, there are plenty of successful 3* and lower players out there starting for NC teams and getting drafted; a kid isn't automatically unworthy of elite program scholarships or a lesser player based solely on the ranking of an internet recruiting site.

    Perhaps when some of our less supportive fans claim otherwise they can refer to these posts.

    I'm not actually directly debating the conclusions of the OP. Just providing additional numbers for informational purposes.
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  20. UFreak
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    UFreak Well-Known Member

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    I guess I'm still unclear of your point. I don't think anyone would argue that teams must have three-star players.
    I think the greater point that is being made here is that the odds show that you minimize the likelyhood of having a player who doesn't pan out the higher his ranking is. Or the converse, you maximize the likelyhood of having an elite player if he is a five star vs. a three star. It's playing the odds is all. Five stars, on average, tend to be more successful in college from a percentage standpoint than three stars, on average from a percentage standpoint.

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