Reasons we can win it all, and faults that could kill us.

Discussion in 'Nuttin' but Net' started by 08gatorbait, Jan 29, 2014.

  1. 08gatorbait
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    08gatorbait Well-Known Member

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    Figured I'd put ten reasons(I think) UF can win a national title this season. I'll then list reasons it will be hard, outside of the obvious that it's the NCAA tourney and it's the most unpredictable and insane sporting tournament in the country and winning it all takes every single thing coming together. This will be VERY LONG. A Tennis pro stuck on the clock with pouring rain who did all his paper work earlier is now bored. Even if it's too long to read, It was fun to type it :p.


    1. Four Senior Starters - It's crazy, but you don't see this from a blue blood type program like UF much anymore. The first sign of money most good players do tend to leave. Michigan State is the only other big time program really with this insane luxury. Add in these four have been to three straight elite eights, and the motivation is incredibly high to make the final four. Usually senior lead teams seem to be mainly mid majors who give great runs in the tourney because of the seniors. Certainly can't be a bad thing.

    2. No one is shockingly good - No 2012 UK this season. Arizona and Syracuse are very, very good. There is no doubt. But there are weaknesses to be exploited. Syracuse goes cold offensively away from home very frequently, and teams who hit the three and have great PG's could exploit any zone. That zone will own 90 percent of college teams with it's execution and size without an issue...but they have to beat 6 straight..and I think someone like say Memphis or Creighton could really cause trouble. Arizona has the NBA talent, great leaders, Nick is a stud. But Miller hasn't been past an Elite eight so coaching is a weakness, though not huge he is very good, over other teams with coaches who've done it before. Add in their defense is very good, but they struggle with good guards who penetrate quickly on them. Utah showed this some last week but Arizona simply had too much talent. They compensate by going under screens but a team who can shoot or drive with multiple players will cause their defense a very big problem. Offensively..good luck stopping them lol.

    3. Efficiency - Kenpom is my favorite measure of teams value before the tourney. Right now Florida sits at 11th. 29th offensive, 10th defensive. While this isn't outstanding, it's growing better almost weekly. Now that UF is healthy it's BPI per game is getting much better outside of Auburn, and it's Kenpom efficiency ratings look like a title contender. No teams is dominate on Kenpom either like last years UF and Louisville seemed to be which only furthers the parity of this year.

    4. Billy Donovan - yep

    5. Can adapt to any game style - This is a key factor many teams can't do. We can adjust who we are based on the opponent. It's really something I think many undervalue come tourney time. It's both sides of the ball too. Defensively this team has shown they can press and cause great havoc and force a ton of turnovers(see kansas and Tennessee for absurd proof). They can run 2-3 zone and double in the post for teams with strong interior forwards/centers. Our Man on man is excellent. Our transition defense ranks SECOND in the nation in field goal percentage in transition. Offensively we run a very complex screen game with constant movement, which can work vs all defenses. We've shown we can drive and destroy you in the paint vs multiple teams, or we can take the shots you give like vs Bama. The ability to adapt in the tourney is the key to winning it all, because you won't face more than two alike teams most likely.

    6. Injuries/Suspensions - The adversity UF has faced has forced every player to do more than he generally would in multiple games to win. That's something that can only make the team better to me. Now obviously if the injuries start mounting again, it then becomes more of an issue than a blessing in disquise. The hard OOC schedule helped make this team tough and forced Donovan to coach out of his mind. Let's just hope it's over with...because as we saw last year with Yeg...we can't afford a missing piece to win it all.

    7. Scottie freaking Wilbekin - If people want to always talk about Craft...it's beyond time that Wilbekin is mentioned too. His stat line is similar, his play style is more offensive. He isn't AS good defensively, but he isn't far behind either. This guy is the most untalked about elite college PG. I won't hesitate to put him vs anyone in the country and feel confident we aren't at any real disadvantage. I think you can see now that he is back, he is finding exactly who he is. As Billy said, he tried too much passing at first when he came back, then he became overly aggressive trying to score after Kansas. He is in his mold now. He dictates the offense, he leads the young guys Frazier and Hill. Wilbekin staying on the floor is the single most important part of UF winning a title besides Billy.

    8. Late game situations - There is little doubt in the tournament you will be tested in late games. Maybe the first two rounds you can get bigger wins, but once the sweet 16 comes around, you better be able to win close games. UF has done it. Now there is the argument on another thread on if it's based more on luck than anything, which is of course a possibility. Still, there is obvious evidence we can win them, and you can't claim that's anything but good for tourney chances.

    9. Seeding - Now seeding is not an all telling factor. But it does say something that's it's been 15 years since a seed besides a 1,2,3 has won a title. Now we aren't seeded yet of course, and the season is still long. But as of now UF seems very comfortably in the 1-3 range and would take probably 4-5 losses to be tossed out. I believe 40 of the last 44 final four teams also have been a 1-5. It would take an implosion to be below a five seed for UF.

    10. Massey Rating - I do like kenpom more, but the rating from massey is still viable. Let's look where past champs ranked the end of Jan on his list. Louisville - 5th, Kentucky 1st, UCONN 9th, Duke 3rd, UNC 5th. So everyone was top ten at this time the last five years. Right now UF is 8th, and has trended up. While top 5 would be safer in terms of the past few, none of them had the issues we had as well. I don't believe he equates injuries like BPI.



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  2. 08gatorbait
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    08gatorbait Well-Known Member

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    Troubling things
    1. Three point defense - It's gotten better the last few games, especially Tennessee. But the big thing in the tourney seems to be big upsets...we love them..they happen..it's awesome. It seems the best way to upset a big dog is going Creighton on them. should be. We currently are at .334. It needs to get around .325 minimal to equal what past champs are near(UofL and UK both at 318 actually).

    2. Free Throw Shooting - I could get into it, but we've had the threads already no need.

    3. Parity - This may be the best tournament in a long time to be honest. Usually you could almost book about five-ten teams and say this is the group who will win it all by now. Good luck trying that. Sure there are favorites like Arizona, Syracuse, Michigan State, Florida, Witches who have looked the part all year...but Duke, Kansas, Louisville, Michigan, etc...there are really 15 teams you could put as the title winner and not have a strong case why they couldn't be. Such a deep field makes it that much harder than most years. If this was even last year, this UF team would go in probably 2nd favorite behind Louisville to me.


    4. Zone defense - I've kind of noticed we struggle somewhat with Zone this year. At Bama we did well using the three but that isn't enough in the tournament. I think we will continue to see a lot of zone from here on out because Billy's screen offense is simply far to hard to guard. We haven't lost yet because of it, but a lenghty zone like Syracuse would really scare me. We still don't feed easy buckets inside nearly enough. Maybe adding another big like Walker can help solve this issue.

    5. Young guys hang their heads - The seniors can dismiss bad plays quickly, but our young guys still seem to struggle with it. Now they are doing better, but it seems guys like Finney, Hill, and Frazier let one bad play get in their heads. Frazier is finally accepting he is allowed to miss, and it's encouraging seeing him shoot. For a while there he really seemed scared to shoot if he missed a few. Hill has had the issue of one mistake leads to another and it did late vs Bama with a few mistakes. Finney as Donovan has stated multiple times also suffers from this though he doesn't shoot nor handle the ball as much as the other two for it to be as noticable. Walker most likely will have the same struggle. This team needs the young guys to not shrug off bad plays, but not let them add on.
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  3. tommyuf21
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    tommyuf21 Well-Known Member

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    Well done, I can't disagree here.
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  4. 08gatorbait
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    08gatorbait Well-Known Member

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    ty
  5. Bradass
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    Bradass Well-Known Member

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    Really great posts! Appreciate you taking the time to write it up. Can't disagree with a thing you said.

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