1. Gator Country Black Friday special!

    Stay on top of the football coach search with the Insider Authority on Gator Sports with a special discount!

    Now's a great time to join or renew and get up to $20 off your annual subscription! LIMITED QUANTITIES -- for details click here.

reason there hasn't been the usual number of threads about economy

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by oldgator, Jul 6, 2013.

  1. chompalot
    Offline

    chompalot Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    9,204
    Likes Received:
    100
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +407
    GZ is an unreasonable individual who acted unreasonably from the rimehe spotted TM to the time he pulled the trigger. GZ's word is sh*t.
  2. Minister_of_Information
    Offline

    Minister_of_Information I'm your huckleberry Premium Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    14,433
    Likes Received:
    756
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    In my prime
    Ratings Received:
    +1,710
    Wrong thread Chompy.
  3. JerseyGator01
    Offline

    JerseyGator01 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2007
    Messages:
    15,357
    Likes Received:
    149
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +719
  4. Gatorrick22
    Offline

    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    33,829
    Likes Received:
    2,638
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ratings Received:
    +5,112
    :laugh::yes:
  5. orangeblueorangeblue
    Offline

    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    57,052
    Likes Received:
    595
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ratings Received:
    +2,878
  6. Gatorrick22
    Offline

    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    33,829
    Likes Received:
    2,638
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ratings Received:
    +5,112
    I'll bet this company is an Obama supporter too. But if we're doing so good then why aren't more people working? Because productivity isn't commensurate with jobs increases.
  7. orangeblueorangeblue
    Offline

    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    57,052
    Likes Received:
    595
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ratings Received:
    +2,878
    What company? That's total manufacturing jobs in the US. And it goes much further back than 2000 (although that's when NAFTA effectively gutted manufacturing in the US).

    I don't think anyone has ever said that it is.

    Indeed, if productivity is an indicator of profit (and it isn't, but let's just play with it), you'll see exactly why profits (and subsequently the stock market) has far exceeded the pace of job growth. Companies got lean, spending came back and companies are cautiously rebuilding staffs.

    But none of this has anything to do with the manufacturing industry, where the formula is quite simple: foreign workers do the same work for less.
  8. Gatorrick22
    Offline

    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    33,829
    Likes Received:
    2,638
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ratings Received:
    +5,112
    We have a decent stock market because uncle Ben is printing 85 billion new reasons a month to invest in the exchange.

    But we will see some anomalous spikes in manufacturing from time to time, that's just seasonal and even cyclical. And it's one small part of our overall economy, which is not what the OP prefaced in his sarcastic disbelief in the number of new threads on that subject. He must think that the jobless and unemployment numbers are unimportant to the economy.

    It's not as okay as some people here think it to be.
  9. orangeblueorangeblue
    Offline

    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    57,052
    Likes Received:
    595
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ratings Received:
    +2,878
    I realize this is what a lot of people lazily say around here but it's simply not true. Revenue and profit is driving the market - that's undeniably true if you look at the data.

    More than anything what "uncle Ben" has done is slash interest rates which makes saving unappealing and investing more appealing. That drives more people and companies (directly or via proxy) into the markets.

    Those generally jibe with cyclical economic movements. They're not difficult to explain - look at the overall pattern since the 1950s, since the expansion of free trade agreements.

    I'm not sure what you're trying to say here, but I get the impression it's going to pare down to "the numbers are a lie" so it's probably not worth opening that any further.

    "Okay" and "as okay" are such impossibly subjective measures that this is mostly meaningless. By most metrics we are "better" than we have been and most metrics are moving in a positive direction. Manufacturing is one that is not, but as history shows, you cannot attribute that to the current recovery.
  10. icequeen
    Offline

    icequeen Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 21, 2013
    Messages:
    5,397
    Likes Received:
    2,331
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Buffalo, NY
    Ratings Received:
    +3,975
    Companies may be "cautiously rebuilding staffs", and there may be some jobs being created, but here's the problem that I have.

    Number one, you have a lot of companies hiring only part-time employees - just below the threshold for having to provide them with any kind of benefits. In some cases, even sick leave. Without benefits, those employees are responsible for paying their health/life benefits out of pocket, which takes money away from how much they can spend on food, clothing, housing, etc.

    Number two, you have a lot of workers who have given up on looking for work, and once their unemployment ran out either gave up completely or turned around and applied for disability. Sure, they could work, but if they had some kind of qualifying condition they figured it was better to just apply for disability.

    It's like telling someone who was making $80,000 a year that the economy is better because they have a job even though they're only making $20,000 now. They have a job. But not one that can pay the bills or leave any kind of discretionary income to spend on items which would boost demand (manufacturing, for example), or go out to dinner to boost the income of restauranteurs, etc.

    Just because a job is created doesn't mean it's a good job.
  11. orangeblueorangeblue
    Offline

    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    57,052
    Likes Received:
    595
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ratings Received:
    +2,878
    What you describe here is a pretty familiar and predictable pattern coming out of recessions, though. Look around 2003-2004, same thing. 1989-1993, same thing.
  12. LeesGator
    Offline

    LeesGator Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2008
    Messages:
    2,627
    Likes Received:
    4
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Ratings Received:
    +4
    This recovery, or lack there of, has been nothing like the ones you mentioned. Not to mention the duration. Again, most people are just numb to it so things seem better. Jobs are always the last thing to respond during a recovery, so I am hopeful we will see some real job creation in the 2nd half of this year. Keep an eye on the staffing companies and their US reveunues. That will tell the tale.
    • Like Like x 1
  13. orangeblueorangeblue
    Offline

    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    57,052
    Likes Received:
    595
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ratings Received:
    +2,878
    Well in terms of types of employment in the tail end of the recession and beginning to middle of the recovery, yes they are. And that's the only comparison I made.
  14. Gatorrick22
    Offline

    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    33,829
    Likes Received:
    2,638
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ratings Received:
    +5,112
    :laugh::laugh::laugh:



    Or have another drink.....
  15. Gatorrick22
    Offline

    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    33,829
    Likes Received:
    2,638
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ratings Received:
    +5,112
    It will see a big correction...


    The free money will cease and the markets will correct themselves.

    This seems right..


    That the OP was wrong to sarcastically bait us on the Right about the $h!ty economy he says we've wrong, more threads to come soon... But it's hard to focus on that and all the illegal crap the POTUS and his gang are contemplating/perpetrating right now as we type. But I'll be sure to start one on the economy soon enough.

    The economy sucks right now... is that less subjective for you?
  16. orangeblueorangeblue
    Offline

    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    57,052
    Likes Received:
    595
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ratings Received:
    +2,878
    Did you see what I wrote? The Fed's major impact is not "free money," it's pushing people into the market and away from saving.

    That is the opposite of less subjective.
  17. icequeen
    Offline

    icequeen Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 21, 2013
    Messages:
    5,397
    Likes Received:
    2,331
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Buffalo, NY
    Ratings Received:
    +3,975
    Understood - but it's a bit early, then, to be claiming victory or that the economy is so much better. Time will tell because frankly we're still in the middle of it. I still think the numbers will continue to get skewed because of the advancing age of the Baby Boomers who will eventually just give up on looking for work and will file for early or full Social Security and not re-enter the workforce. That's not a positive even though it's less people looking for jobs. As a matter of fact, it's a major negative because you'd have more and more workers entering the federal system with less employees to pick up the tab.

    Thank you for pointing out the pattern, though.
  18. orangeblueorangeblue
    Offline

    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    57,052
    Likes Received:
    595
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ratings Received:
    +2,878
    Indeed, unfortunately enough time will tell any story you want it to, given its cyclical nature.
  19. Gatorrick22
    Offline

    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    33,829
    Likes Received:
    2,638
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ratings Received:
    +5,112
    Nope, the economy still sucks.
  20. orangeblueorangeblue
    Offline

    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    57,052
    Likes Received:
    595
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ratings Received:
    +2,878

Share This Page