Projecting the season- Part 1

Discussion in 'Nuttin' but Net' started by 08gatorbait, Jan 15, 2014.

  1. gaturguru
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    Our games against UT and UK will decide who wins the conference.
  2. HallGator
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    HallGator Administrator VIP Member

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    That's a fairly safe prediction.
  3. oneatatime
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    oneatatime Well-Known Member

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    well your omission and then addition of Wisconsin, negates my comment. good recovery
  4. bayou_gator
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    bayou_gator Active Member

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    More.
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2014
  5. madgator
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    madgator Well-Known Member

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    Most experts are saying that the Big 12 is the best conference......tough to argue that one.

    That aside, as things are shaping up right now, I am expecting us to have a #1 seed in the NCAA. We should win the SEC regular season title and as long as we don't go out early in the SEC tourney, a 1 seed should be ours.
  6. GatorLurker
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    GatorLurker Well-Known Member

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    I put our odds of sharing the title with UK as pretty high with something like 14-4 for both, but an outright win is less likely.

    I like the way you are thinking, though.

    Here is where I disagree. The SEC is not that great this year top to bottom. I am thinking that the only sure path to a #1 seed out of the SEC is being a clear cut winner of the regular season and playing on Sunday for the tournament title.

    YMMV, of course.
  7. TampaGatorFan
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    TampaGatorFan Well-Known Member

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    Oh, to have been at full strength the whole way. We'd likely be undefeated right now and ranked Top 3.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  8. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    Not according the Missouri boards. :) At least not before their losses, it wasn't.
  9. 08gatorbait
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    08gatorbait Well-Known Member

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    Just got back. Was in Kentucky for a funeral had an aunt die so wasn't able to get back and do the BPI. I'll get it up soon though even though I'm still trying to figure out the exact formula they use which is seemingly hidden from the world O_O.
  10. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    Tonight we get approach another game off of my "major threats" list (after barely escaping a game against one of the minor threats):

    @Arky - check
    @Bama - tonight!
    UT
    @UT
    @UK
    @Ole Miss
    UK.

    Approx KenPom odds of going undefeated in these games from start: 1.6%
    Updated odds after Arky victory: 2.7%
  11. REM08
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    REM08 Well-Known Member

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    How many games left are the gators NOT favored in? I'd probably only think @UK but, knowing kenpom's system a little, I bet he's got others.
  12. 08gatorbait
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    08gatorbait Well-Known Member

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    UF will have a hard time @Tennessee and even at home vs them. It's just a nightmare for us every time we play tennessee. @Ole Miss will also be a challenge because somehow Henderson will make 10 crazy three's at home which are well defended by Scottie. @UK of course too. Every road game is a loss possibly because I don't see us blowing many out on the road. Home outside of UK I think we win pretty big most games, I just have faith in these guys at home.
  13. GatorLurker
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    Right now he has the Gator road trip to UT and UK as the two games where the Gators are not favored at 40% and 33% chance of a UF victory in each game.

    The game tonight at 'Bama has a 70% chance of a Gator "W" while the Saturday game vs UT is a 71% "W" deal. I see that as a coin flip between winning both versus splitting and with losing both as a long shot. That sounds about right to me.
    • Informative Informative x 1
  14. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    Lurker hit this. I will update the major threats list:

    @Arky - check
    @Bama - check
    UT - Saturday
    @UT
    @UK
    @Ole Miss
    UK.

    Approx KenPom odds of going undefeated in these games from start: 1.6%
    Updated odds after Arky victory: 2.7%
    Updated odds after Bama victory: 4.0%
    • Informative Informative x 1
  15. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    I'll keep updating the major threats list as we go:

    @Arky - check
    @Bama - check
    UT - check plus!
    @UT
    @UK
    @Ole Miss
    UK.

    Approx KenPom odds of going undefeated in these games from start: 1.6%
    Updated odds after Arky victory: 2.7%
    Updated odds after Bama victory: 4.0%
    Updated odds after Tenn victory: 10.0%

    Now it looks like we get four games until our next major threat. Keep focused guys.

    Edited to include KenPom update in our power rating. 1/26
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2014
  16. 08gatorbait
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    08gatorbait Well-Known Member

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    Every roadgame is a threat. But none make me nervous but miss and uk right now
  17. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    Check this analytic blog post on KenPom. It shows that historically, winning a home game by 25 against an opponent gives something like a 50-65% chance of winning the return game against that team. Don't be surprised to see UT give us a serious game next month.

    [​IMG]
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  18. GatorLurker
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    Before today's game UT was favored vs UF in Knoxville with a 60% chance to win my kenpom.

    Now they are a "dog" with a 48% chance of winning and the Gators are slightly favored.

    Still a coin flip but now the odds have shifted a tiny bit.

    Yeah, the Gators embarrassed UT today but that has little to do with the next game.

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