Play calling last 6 minutes of the game

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by Vindibudd, Sep 22, 2013.

  1. OaktownGator
    Offline

    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    26,128
    Likes Received:
    2,369
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ratings Received:
    +6,697
    To your last point, grumpy, I'm pretty confident Champ and Pease and the majority of major college football coaches are aware that three kneel downs should be good for a little over two minutes in that situation.

    And that the Vols with less than half a minute would be wildly unlikely to get in the end zone twice. They probably even told Christie if he had a problem with the snap or might get blocked to get the ball out the back of the end zone and take a safety.
  2. GatorJeff
    Offline

    GatorJeff Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    8,218
    Likes Received:
    9
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Location:
    Florida
    Ratings Received:
    +9
    This thread is a first cousin to the "wife is bored and wants us to throw deep" thread from a week or so ago. Just more pouting about not entertaining the casual fans, this time as it pertains to the last half of the fourth quarter. Muschamp did exactly what he needed to do to win the football game.
  3. grumpy_gator
    Offline

    grumpy_gator New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2013
    Messages:
    886
    Likes Received:
    74
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Seattle, WA
    Ratings Received:
    +74
    Thanks, Tipmoose.

    For Item 1, I didn't find specific data on bad snaps or fumbles by the punter on a punt play for NCAA or NFL footbll. Those certainly could contribute to the turnover probability for a punt play. I was assumming those likely also contributed to blocked punts and a blocked punt was the biggest risk for a turnover so I didn't feel that lost fumbles would contribute significantly.

    I guess we could assume the bad snap or drops by the punter might be similar to overall bad snaps in the NFL of 0.34% and conservatively assume 100% are recovered by the defense which would push the punt turnovers from 1.14% to 1.48%.

    It doesn't change anything in the sense that I was assuming we punted on 4th down for both play sequences:

    Run, Run, Run, Punt = 5.69%
    Kneel, Kneel, Kneel, Punt = 1.72%

    For Item 2, I thought about that issue and didn't find anything like "blocked punts late in 4th Qtr when defense rushes 11". Similarly, I couldn't find anything about lost fumbles for rushing plays late in the 4th Qtr when the other team expects you to run the ball. So the probabilites are generic in that regard.

Share This Page