Offensive Statistics 2010-2013

Discussion in 'Swamp Gas' started by LimeyGator, Oct 20, 2013.

  1. LimeyGator
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    LimeyGator Well-Known Member

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    Ok, so I wanted to quantify with real numbers the extent to which our offense has been underperforming - so I went back to look at some base offensive stats dating back to the start of the 2010 season. (Source: CFBStats.com)

    Remember - in 2009, Florida had the No.8 scoring offense in the nation (TDs only) and culminated in Tim Tebow's 550+yd 'rout' in the Sugar Bowl.

    Accumulating all offensive scoring stats since 2010 under Meyer and then Muschamp, right up to just before yesterday's game (which, let's face it, will only aggravate the numbers), I found the following:

    (Note, I discounted some of the 'newer' teams that didn't accumlate stats in every single year since 2010 for comparison's sake - all numbers are for teams that have registered in all seasons, so you're looking at nearly 50 games for the sample)

    Over the past 3.5 years:

    • Florida is 77th in Scoring offense (TDs only) in the Nation.
    Some interesting comparisons - Oregon (1) [55 TDs ahead of No.2 Baylor/OkState!], Bama (11), Georgia (14), FSU (16), LSU (24), South Carolina (30), Tennessee (65), Vanderbilt (75).

    • Florida has 144 total offensive touchdowns over the period - avg 3.2 TDs per game (45 games).
    Some interesting comparisons - Oregon (305), Bama (214), Georgia (205), LSU (195), Mississippi State (163), Vanderbilt (146). Als interesting as I think we'd have gladly taken 3.2 offensive TDs in each of the past two weeks...

    • Florida is 12th of 14 SEC teams in offensive TDs per game over the past 3.5 years.
    This is above only Kentucky (117tds) and Ole Miss (143tds). After last night's win for Ole Miss, we will drop to 13th of 14 when stats update later today. Admittedly, TAMU and Mizzou accumulated stats in other conferences as a part of these stats...

    The list:

    TAMU - 228
    Bama - 214
    Georgia - 205
    LSU - 192
    South Carolina - 189
    Missouri - 178
    Arkansas - 174
    Auburn - 170
    Miss.State - 163
    Tennessee - 156
    Vanderbilt - 146
    Florida - 144
    Ole Miss - 143
    Kentucky - 117

    • Florida's offensive TD scoring 'National Rankings' (2013 still in progress, of course):
    2010 (Meyer) - 34th (29.8 pts p/g)
    2011 (Muschamp/Weis) - 81st (25.5 pts p/g)
    2012 (Muschamp/Pease) - 82nd (26.5 pts p/g)
    2013* (Muschamp/Pease) - 97th (21.8 pts p/g)

    Some interesting comparables (listing according to order of finish: 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013*)
    - Vanderbilt (110th, 53rd, 60th, 34th)
    - Kentucky (31st, 117th, 114th, 104th)
    - Alabama (21st, 25th, 7th, 22nd)
    - Georgia (35th, 30th, 6th, 30th)
    - FSU (30th, 49th, 10th, 9th)
    - LSU (59th, 11th, 64th, 4th)
    - Oregon (1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st) [Houston topped them in 2011]
    - South Carolina (27th, 33rd, 38th, 34th)
    - Ohio State (13th, 76th, 28th, 4th)

    All of this is very interesting reading to me. What stands out is that we simply have not been a good offensive team for well over 3 years now and, most worryingly, we appear to be getting worse. There's really no other polite way to put that. It doesn't pass the eye ball test and the statistics back it up. It's a consistent problem too rather than there being ups and downs on the path we're treading.

    In 2010, a total of 5,393 FBS Offensive TDs were scored. That increased to 5488 in 2011, up again to 5707 in 2012 and by my crude calculations, the College Football is on pace for 5885 in 2013. That's an approximate rise of 9% over a 4 season span in offensive TDs which suggests that scoring is up and continuing to rise significantly.

    By comparison, Florida has gone from 52 TDs in 2010, to 37 (2011), up to 39 (2012) and down this year with just 16 through 6 games, extrapolating to around 32-35 this year. Not only is our offense down but the gap is widening with our peers, it seems.

    Being 12th (or soon to be 13th) in the SEC tomorrow is a major concern. Personally I knew we had underperformed, but I didn't realise it was quite this bad. The statistics say we only look down at Kentucky and everyone else is above us when Ole Miss pass us after the stats are updated. That's pretty embarrassing whichever way you look at it, not least given the successes we had over the previous 4 years.

    To be talked about as Championship contender in the near future with those kind of offensive numbers is pretty hard to see even with my most orange and blue glasses on... adding a handful of quality offensive recruits isn't likely to drastically change this output either. And remember, this malaise is sustained too - it's something that has been evident for several seasons, not just the final game we're all lamenting from yesterday. For all the historical mocking, to be looking up at the likes of Vandy and Miss-St is somewhere between 'discouraging and frightening.' (I'm erring towards the latter.) It's harder to argue the schedule being tough when our rivals are getting it done but we are not.

    Now I fully appreciate that when doing this analysis, there's a whole bunch of variables that come into play such as the aforementioned schedule, our OLine play (for which it's hard to collect meaninful statistical info), recruiting on the offensive side of the ball [although keep in mind, according to ESPN we have had 22 offensive players ranked 4 stars or better in the past 3 signed classes, which is hardly on the bread line!] etc. But the numbers are what they are and this isn't a small sample size.

    I don't think anyone expects us to post Oregon numbers week in, week out but comparing with our SEC rivals shows we are lagging well behind the Georgia's, Bamas, LSUs and Carolinas of our league by some distance.

    Yes, of course we take pride our D but in a balanced game, our D is clearly having to do far too much. In fact when you consider we have gone 30-16 in that time frame (keep in mind loss number 16 isn't actually reflected in these stats yet either...) it's testament to our staff and personnel just how good our D probably has been, especially given that we've been mostly competitive.

    So what does all this mean? Feel free to make your own conclusions, but I feel like yesterday was the nail in the coffin of my own personal belief that we can be successful playing the way we do. Changes are needed - I am open-minded that one option could well be new coaching staff, but perhaps oddly I'm not personally prepared to sign up to that mandate just yet. However I certainly think a change is needed philosophically about our playing style at the very least. Yes 'Defense wins championships' but not on its own when we have 'produced' offensively like this for so long. It's on Coach Muschamp and Pease to figure this out pretty quickly, IMO.

    We won in 2008 with the No.3 scoring offense (TDs), we were top 10 in 2007 and even in our reknowned 'defensive Championship year' in 2006 when we shut down OSU... we still had a top 10 overall offense! It's a bit of fallacy to assume we were ever D in isolation as much as the press would have you believe... you could more easily argue that it was actually the offense that brought us our recent successes and championships moreso than on defense, whilst being backed up by a better-than-solid D (and of course, a very productive special teams unit that also contributed very well.)

    The coaching staff needs, IMO, to go back to the drawing board right now in the bye week. We're not talking about small tweaks being needed - we need large, fundamental shifts in playing philosophy to try something different because D alone is going to leave us heading backwards even further, especially as our ST unit seems to have gone backwards too despite the small step up this week.

    And of course, if we don't, then before too long our reputation is going to take a severe hit (if it hasn't already) as and when recruits start seeing more statistically-productive offenses at Vandy and Miss State! ...What an easy negative-recruiting pitch that will be for our rivals and in-state foes who both are outperforming us offensively. We're going to miss out on more and more talent.

    Bama and LSU have quality defenses but they still produce on the other side of the ball, especially the Tide as the statistics confirm. Georgia and SC have had success on offense that has outweighed any relative shortcomings on Defense but their overall level of team success will draw better defensive players to their classes anyway going forward. It seems easier to recruit that way than defense pulling in offensive recruits based on my gut feeling...

    I'll leave you to make your own conclusions because the reasons are potentially tenfold and speculative - I just wanted to look at actual factual statistics. I do feel like I've personally had an epiphany of sorts this morning: These numbers show a clear, prolonged statistical regression and it needs reversing pretty swiftly. I just hope Will, Brent and co aren't so stubborn in sticking to their current formula to the point that they keep trying to smash a square peg into a round hole. This 'wear 'em down, T.O.P. ground game' is not working as it should do. Either make it work through hard coaching of the players or find something else that works better and recruit to that model. That's on the coaching staff and they have to get it right.

    I'm willing to swallow my pride and admit I've perhaps been too patient in my previous analysis but the evidence suggests the problem is already getting out of hand. Time for some serious action.

    GO GATORS!
  2. gators1422
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    gators1422 Member

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    In other words, the offense gets worse every year but somehow we think it's going to get better??? Cut the cord and let's move on.
  3. gatorvincent
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    gatorvincent Member

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    Well done Limey....

    I am not much of a stats guy as they can be used for or against any given argument.

    That said, you used them very effectively to support the argument most of us in Gatorland are having.... :no:

    I think the most frustrating part of all of this is when you look at other teams they make plays all over the field and we just have nothing.

    Hard to be half a season in and have no realistic chance at anything except maybe a winning record..... man how the mighty have fallen.
  4. LimeyGator
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    LimeyGator Well-Known Member

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    I think I've been moderately critical throughout the year but I've put my faith in the coaching staff and players to come out the other side.

    I just feel like with these stats, it's getting harder and harder to believe "all will be ok". Expecting a turnaround after a short spell is one thing - expecting a turnaround after 3 years with continually declining evidence is another.

    Barring a miracle we won't be going to Atlanta now - even if we can win over both rivals SC and Gerorgia we need Mizzou to trip up repeatedly. It's worth chasing until it's impossible but reality is biting. Truth be known our season is now staring down at least 2 big rivalry games (UGA and FSU) and, as sick as it sounds, being motivated to 'spoil' FSU's chances at the NCG, which suddenly look pretty good if they beat Miami.

    That being the case, I think now is the time to start thinking about the future identity of this team and it needs to start now to embed it and show we are serious. Let's hope something happens...
  5. akaijenkins1
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    akaijenkins1 Active Member

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    Fantastic research
  6. eastowest
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    eastowest Well-Known Member

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    Our Off. avg. 21 pts a game
    15 on the road
  7. GreenandScaly
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    GreenandScaly Well-Known Member

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    Great argument for considering Chris Petersen, who is 88-10 at Boise State with an imaginative, high-scoring offense.
  8. Gatorphenom
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    Gatorphenom New Member

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    The program is broken right now.

    And if people don't see that after today, then there is no eye doctor in the world that can remove the orange and blue tent.
  9. SeaBud
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    SeaBud Active Member

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    Statistics don't give answers but they sure frame the question: when you quantitatively underperform with many different players over many years, explanations begin to resemble excuses. My question this year was: is cwm the coach who led us to 7-5 or that lead us to 11-2? Which was the aberration? Whatever the answer, we know his offensive philosophy is a statistical failure (and looks to be a failure in results too).
  10. Gatorrick22
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    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

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    Which year is the anomaly? The 11-2 or the 7-5?
  11. LimeyGator
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    LimeyGator Well-Known Member

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    At first I felt like the 7-5 was the anomaly and that 11-2 represented progression.

    Now I've reflected on it some more, I feel that the 11-2 was likely the anomaly, where an elite defense helped to win us several close games. 8 of our 11 wins came by 2 TDs or less last year, with our only real blow outs (i.e. 15pt margins or more) coming over Kentucky (also statistically the weakest SEC team over the past 4 years offensively), Jacksonville State (but still frustratingly on 23 points) and that weird one where we put up 44 points on SCarolina but only had 183 yards total offense.

    It pains me to admit it but I think we were fortunate last year not to have done much more poorly, covered up by a sensational defense that, when we reflect in 4 or 5 years, might have as many NFLers on it on the defensive side of the ball as we had on our offense back in '08 :(
  12. Gatorrick22
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    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

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    This is why I posed that question. I'm starting to feel that way about our team's progression/digression too.

    What's next?
  13. LimeyGator
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    LimeyGator Well-Known Member

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    If I knew that I'd give Mr Foley a call. Alas, I'm out of ideas and hoping our coaching staff can cure what ails us! I'd like to think that's why they get paid a lot more than me :)
  14. Gatorrick22
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    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

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    I'd call Baylor, if I were Foley... and ask to talk to their head coach.
  15. GatorLaw25
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    GatorLaw25 Member

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    It was actually 7-6... and came dangerously close to 6-7 as OSU could have beaten us in that bowl game. Which brings me to the point. Since we beat OSU that game, they have not lost a game (yes, in a much easier conference, but they have done what they are supposed to do). We, on the other hand, have lost 5 and counting. I was cautiously optimistic, if not slightly underwhelmed, when we hired Boom, didn't blink after 7-6 and drank the cool aid last year, even as we beat that directional Louisiana school in a miraculous finish. I have supported him even after the LSU game. I was OK with, almost resigned to, winning ugly and boring, as long as we were winning. I come to the conclusion that we cannot win with this philosophy. We need an offense. This is not the 1980s. If we cannot win this way, then I sure as hell don't want to be bored beating the teams we should beat while being absolutely bored to tears and then lose to the teams we have to beat to win championships. I don't know that I am officially done with Boom, but man, I'm close. He's got two weeks to generate a game plan to beat an UGA team that is actually more injured than we are. If he cannot, then I will be done. Not that matters to anyone but me... I will say that if he goes 1-2 against FSU, UGA and USC, his seat will be burning. If he goes 0-3, how can he not be done? I do think he has a chance to go 2-1 and if he does, he will have next year for sure. He will probably have next year for sure even if he goes 1-2, I think, but his ass will be more than warm...
  16. NoahBeanBizzel
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    NoahBeanBizzel Well-Known Member

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    Foley would tell you nothing more than that he's 100% behind Muschamp, and that the Gator Nation is going to have to swallow that. And he'd say it with stunning arrogance, that would make even the folks in your neck of the woods blush.

    Eleven wins last year, with a Sugar Bowl appearance and wins over four top-ten teams is hard to build a legitimate case against. Zook never accomplished anything like that. Also, he was fired after losing to an awful Mississippi State team that was coming off of an early-season loss to Maine. Of course, there was more to it than that, but that was the final straw for Zook.

    If nothing else, last season earned him a fourth year. He's here for now. Six losses or not, he's not going anywhere else-at least not because he's being forced out. People need to understand that the man won eleven games last season, and his team was a Notre Dame loss away from playing Alabama for it all. Three losses, on the road, against three top-25 (possibly top-ten by season's end) teams isn't going to be enough to bring forth any sort of change at the end of the year. And it really doesn't matter whether people on this board are upset about it; that's just the way it is, friend.
  17. Gatorphenom
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    Intelligent well thought out post but I disagree, if he goes 6-6 or 5-7 with historic melt down ala Auburn last year. He's out. I guess it all depends on the way he loses, but I'm hoping against all hope he can actually win.
  18. southernmost
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    Remember Zook's second season, when he went 8-3 and lots of folks were saying stuff like "If the ball bounces our way a couple times, we're 11-1"? Well, the ball bounced our way last season, and we went 11-2.

    The offensive problem begins on first down, where we are completely predictable. We run, up the middle or off tackle. There is no reason for our opponents not to stack 10 men in run coverage, because we NEVER do anything to punish that behavior.
    Last edited: Oct 20, 2013
  19. Gatorrick22
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    Yeah it was 7-6, you're right. Also I have no problem with his defensive coaching skills but he has twice whiffed on Offensive coordinators in Weis and Pease.

    That's two very wrong decisions that affects our entire football program, not just the season. Sure we could hire a great OC next year and turn things around, but we will still rely on our defense to win games next year because it will take at least two years to see the real success of the new OC.

    We need someone with several years of head coaching experience at Florida. I'm sick of Foley's games with our football head coaching choices. Zook was a bust... Meyer was a head case, and now we have a decent defensive minded coach that can't seem to find a decent OC. So he's not cutting it either.

    Is it too much to ask for when we say we want stability and creativity in coaching?
  20. NoahBeanBizzel
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    NoahBeanBizzel Well-Known Member

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    You're not getting the big picture. This isn't about what people thought about Zook, or what they were saying when we were 8-3. This isn't about which way the ball bounced last season, or why we got eleven wins. Foley isn't talking to Muschamp about being predictable on first down, and he's doing everything possible to reassure Muschamp that he's 100% in his corner. This isn't about you. It certainly isn't about the posters who want Muschamp out.

    The big picture is this: people are talking about firing a coach who is coming off of an eleven-win season, with four wins over top-ten opponents, and a Sugar Bowl berth because he lost on the road to arguably the best team in the SEC. That's a completely asinine case to build against a coach when looking at this from a logical perspective. And again, people can respond however they want to. They can scream, kick, bark like dogs, dig up every offensive statistic they want to in an attempt to show how bad UF is right now all they want to, but Muschamp ain't goin' nowhere. And that's real.

    Foley isn't going to fire Muschamp. If he does that, he's inadvertently telling the entire world that he was wrong about who he hired. And Foley's ego is a little bit bigger than that. We're going to sink or swim with Muschamp for at least another fourteen months.

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