Obamacare Will Be Repealed Well In Advance Of The 2014 Elections

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by mocgator, Nov 12, 2013.

  1. mocgator

    mocgator Well-Known Member

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    An interesting take... from this guy's mouth to God's ears...

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevenh...pealed-well-in-advance-of-the-2014-elections/

    Prediction: even if HealthCare.gov is fixed by the end of the month (unlikely), Obamacare is going to be repealed well in advance of next year’s election. And if the website continues to fail, the push for repeal—from endangered Democrats—will occur very rapidly. The website is a sideshow: the real action is the number of people and businesses who are losing their health plans or having to pay a lot more. Fixing the website will only delay the inevitable.

    Senate Democrats endangered for re-election will lead the charge for repeal perhaps as soon as January, after they get an earful over the Christmas break. They’ll call it “reform,” and clothe it in calls for delaying the individual mandate and allowing people and businesses to keep their existing health insurance policies. But it is probably too late to go back in many cases. With the political damage guaranteed to continue, the momentum toward repeal will be unstoppable. Democrats will not want to face the voters next November with the albatross of Obamacare.

    The politics of the repeal effort will be a game theorist’s dream. Tea Party Republicans will resist “reforms” to Obamacare in favor of complete repeal. Democrats will try to turn the tables and set up Republicans as obstacles to reform, hoping to inoculate themselves prospectively from mayhem at the polls next November. The House might want to insist that the Senate go first; after all, it was the Senate version of the bill that the House had to swallow after Scott Brown’s election in January 2010. The House can rightly insist that the Senate needs to clean up the mess they made. Obama may well give Capitol Hill Democrats a pass on a repeal vote, and veto any bill that emerges. He’ll never face the voters again.

    This wouldn’t be the first time that a health care entitlement was repealed. The same thing happened in the late 1980s with catastrophic coverage for seniors. Because seniors were made to pay for their benefits under that scheme, the uproar forced Congress to repeal the measure barely a year after it went into effect. Obamacare looks to be on the same political trajectory, and for the same reason. Obamacare represents the crisis of big government; the limits of administrative government have finally been breached. For the first time ever, some polls are showing a majority of Americans doubting the goal of universal health coverage.

    The hazard of the moment is that a compromise “reform” that drops the mandate and attempts to restore the insurance status quo ante could leave us with an unfunded expansion of Medicaid and a badly disrupted private insurance market. Republicans should avoid both the political traps and a new fiscal time bomb by being ready with a serious replacement policy, based on the premium support tax credit ideas that John McCain advocated (poorly) in 2008. While anxious liberals are in dismay, they should recognize that Obamacare may well have achieved its chief purpose of making universal or at least greatly expanded health coverage a fixture of American social policy. The cost to liberalism may prove fatal, however.
  2. gatorman_07732

    gatorman_07732 Well-Known Member

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    Let's hope this happens. I just think the three amigos Obama, Reid and Pelosi are going to do everything they can to prevent that from happening. Obama has nothing else to hang his hat on when he leaves office.
  3. PSGator66

    PSGator66 Well-Known Member

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    We can only hope.
  4. OklahomaGator

    OklahomaGator Moderator VIP Member

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    They can all vote for repeal, let it pass and then the Presidential veto will be used. I don't think there are enough endangered dems to override the veto so the law will stay on the books.
  5. gatorev12

    gatorev12 Well-Known Member

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    It'd be sweet vindication for those who've opposed this boondoggle from the beginning. It's not like this should really startle anyone.
  6. gatorev12

    gatorev12 Well-Known Member

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    If Obama does this, he guarantees a Republican president in 2016. Healthcare premiums will continue to rise and Americans will grow more and more pissed off.
  7. secgator

    secgator Well-Known Member

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    A package deal would be even better--repeal Obamascam AND remove The King from office.

    Oh but to dream.... :)
  8. OklahomaGator

    OklahomaGator Moderator VIP Member

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    He is all about preserving Obamacare first and foremost.
  9. gatorman_07732

    gatorman_07732 Well-Known Member

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    Yep, and he'll be willing to do about anything. The best way to skin this cat if some Dem's are on board is just not fund it. If the public perception gets worse I don't think it will that hard.
  10. gatorev12

    gatorev12 Well-Known Member

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    Yup. I kinda laugh at the irony about the govt shutdown in retrospect. It will likely be the last time Congressional Democrats stand by him on Obamacare as a voting block for the rest of his term.

    It may take a few months, but you'll start seeing growing bipartisan support for chipping away at the program.
  11. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan Well-Known Member

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    Repeal alone won't get anywhere. Obama will veto, even if it means driving another nail into the D's presidential hopes in 2016. Obamacare is his legacy. But if the R's can come up with meaningful reform, Obama and company will most likely accept it, because then both sides can claim victory.

    The ball is in the R's court right now. As bad as things look, repeal only will make the R's look like the party of no, and solves nothing. If that's the track the R's take, the D's will capitalize and win more elections than many on this board think will happen. If the R's come up with something more meaningful, they could sweep 2014 and carry that into 2016.
  12. wgbgator

    wgbgator Sub-optimal Poster Premium Member

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    Even with the issues that haven arisen, full repeal is less likely today than it was at any time since its passing. I could see potential delays or waivers if the website isnt functioning well by the end of the year, but the chances of a full repeal are close to nil. Red state Ds know that full repeal won't help them in the 2014 election anyway, and likewise, the WH has no incentive to do red state Ds any favors either. Besides, its not clear that the electorate wants a full repeal anyway, so I'm not sure how much of a winner that is politically anyways. People are still in wait and see mode.
  13. GT Gator

    GT Gator Well-Known Member

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    There is absolutely no way this will be repealed prior to 2016. No freakin' way. Obama is way too entrenched to ever wave a surrender flag -- even if it is guised as "reform."

    As long as Obama has veto power, he'll make sure he rides his "signature piece of legislation" all the way to the bottom.

    I do think it will be repealed after the 2016 election though, regardless of who wins.
  14. Gatorrick22

    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

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    Obama-scam/extortion/tax is nothing more than a votes for free insurance.
  15. tegator80

    tegator80 Well-Known Member

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    Sorry, I don't see any tangible way for Obamacare to be repealed. That was called the 2012 election. We now get to reap what we have sown. But if the voters kick all of the bums out in 2014 and 2016 then it wouldn't hurt my feelings.

    But the general population would have to keep focused on their task at hand and overcome a record amount of campaign spending.

    Not a very good expectation, IMO.
  16. Gatorrick22

    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

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    The law has changed people's minds now that they get to feel (not just read) what's actually in that $h!t-burger law.
  17. 108

    108 Premium Member

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    Repeal with what?

    Americans as a whole aren't going to accept not having pre-existing conditions covered, and there's just no way to do that without a mandate, if you want to keep the private sector in tact

    That being said, no way it gets repealed
  18. Gatorrick22

    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

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    There are several bills already passed in the House that dirty little Harry never let the Senate vote on... pick one.
  19. tegator80

    tegator80 Well-Known Member

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  20. Gatorrick22

    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

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