NCAA Tournament selection (a look at the SEC history since 64-team field)

Discussion in 'Around the Horn - Baseball & Men's Gator Sports!' started by WESGATORS, May 13, 2013.

  1. WESGATORS
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    WESGATORS Well-Known Member

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    The safe mark going back to 1999 seems to be .500 record in conference play, top 8 (old SECT appearance), and a top 40 rpi. 4 reasons to be nervous...these teams finished 15-15 in conference play but failed to make the NCAA Tournament:

    2007 - FLORIDA (15-15, 29-30, rpi = 36, 6th place, 1-2 SECT); FLORIDA and Vanderbilt are the only SECT #6 seeds to have failed to make the NCAA Tournament. Not a given that FLORIDA would have been selected if they were eligible, but the lack of a winning record made it an easy determination.
    2001 - Alabama (15-15, 30-23, rpi = 32, 9th place); had Alabama won even a single game against Auburn, they would have gone to the SEC Tournament; Auburn would likely have been a 14-16 entry for the SEC given their high rpi that year.
    1999 - South Carolina (15-15, 35-23, rpi = 44, 7th place "Eastern Division Champs", 0-2 SECT); Around this time I really started getting sick of the label "division champs" in SEC baseball. They actually went 8-7 against the SEC West that year. Lost 10 of the their last 13 SEC games played (including the SECT).
    2007 - Alabama (15-15, 31-26, rpi = 57, 7th place, 0-2 SECT); I think this is simply a case of a very weak rpi making it easy for the committee to burst the bubble.

    Top 5 rpi teams to miss an at-large bid:

    2011 - LSU (23), 13-17, 36-20, 9th place: 24-17, 4-14 in the SEC at their low point, rallied for a 13-17 conference record and a 9th place finish in the conference.
    2000 - Georgia (29), 14-15, 30-26, 7th place, 1-2 SECT: Lost their last 7 SEC regular season games including a sweep to division leading South Carolina, and a sweep in the regular season finale in GAINESVILLE...2-10 to finish out their season.
    2005 - Vanderbilt (30), 13-17, 34-21, 9th place: The only one of 4 13-win SEC teams that did not make the SEC Tournament that year. Unfortunately for Vanderbilt, they had the worst rpi.
    2002 - Ole Miss (31), 14-16, 37-19, 9th place, last place in division. Swept at home by Arkansas (13-14, 8th in the SEC)...any single win in that series, and they were likely in the tournament.
    (already mentioned above is the 2001 Alabama team, rpi = 32)

    Now for the good news:

    Over the past 5 seasons, 11 SEC teams have been selected for the NCAA Tournament while having a .500 or worse conference record.

    4 15-15 teams (average rpi 21.5)
    2 14-15 teams (average rpi 17.5)
    4 14-16 teams (average rpi 27)
    1 12-17 team (rpi = 27)

    5 of those teams finished in 8th or 9th place with an average rpi of 26.

    A series win at Georgia should lock things up for FLORIDA with a potential of rising as high as a #5 seed in the SECT.

    In the final weekend:

    #5 Ole Miss plays @ LSU
    #6 MSU hosts South Carolina
    #7 Alabama plays @ Vanderbilt

    If LSU wins the series 2-1, South Carolina wins the series 2-1, and Vanderbilt wins the series 2-1, and FLORIDA defeats Georgia 2-1, then FLORIDA jumps up to the #5 seed. FLORIDA has the tie-breaker in the event that FLORIDA, Ole Miss, MSU all finish with the same record.

    Go GATORS!
    ,WESGATORS
  2. taxman22
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    taxman22 Premium Member

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    Thanks for the info, Go Gators. Crushing weekend. Hopefully they find their footing this weekend, against a subpar UGA team. The bats have cooled at a tough time.
  3. ETGator1
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    ETGator1 Well-Known Member

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    Until we lost the AU series, I thought we were a lock with the #1 SOS and an RPI in the low 20s. I'm no longer sure after playing so poor offensively at home.
  4. jhfxof
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    jhfxof Active Member

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    Heres how I see it. 6 SEC teams already locked in

    SEC RPIs

    Vandy (1)
    LSU (4)
    MSU (10)
    USC (11)
    Ole Miss (20)
    Arkansas (44)

    3 SEC teams eliminated obv.

    Tenn (97)
    Georgia (134)
    Missouri (147)

    I think we can assume SEC gets at least 8 in,,,probably 9, and I dont think 10 would shock anyone, but unlikely.

    So we'll say 2-3 spots up for grabs between these 5 teams

    SEC Record Last series
    UF (23) (13-14) @ UGa
    Auburn (28) (11-16) Ark
    UK (31) (10-17) @ Mizz.
    Bama (43) (13-13) @ Vandy
    Tex A&M(49) (11-15) @ UT

    Going to be lots of scoreboard watching this weekend. Needless to say I'll be pulling for the home teams. LOL.
  5. gatorbogey
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    gatorbogey Active Member

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    bottom line: win the series this weekend in athens!
  6. DreadnaughtCane
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    DreadnaughtCane New Member

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    The only thing you should be concerned about is overall record. You have a tournament resume when looking at SOS, RPI, wins against top 50, conference record, etc. But 29-28 would be hard to defend.
  7. gatorbogey
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    gatorbogey Active Member

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    my expectations are pretty low. i figured this might be a 're-set' year. thought we might finish strong however. but that hasn't quite materialized [yet]. glad to see we did rebound from the dreadful start - became quite competitive. we still battle. but if we have a number of errors in the game - we're likely to lose.

    if we do get into the ncaa's as, say a 3-seed, it might be short-lived. still that would be good experience for this young team to build on for the future. and anything can happen if you do make it in.
  8. gtr2x
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    gtr2x Well-Known Member

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    At this point , I would love to make the tourney even as a 4 seed.
  9. WESGATORS
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    WESGATORS Well-Known Member

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    My thought after last season was that it would have been great if we were able to host this year. After the injuries, I thought it would be good (not great) if we were able to make it into the Tournament. After the 2nd Tennessee game, we were 25-19, 12-8, and a regional host was still a possibility even if only a long shot. I began hoping for a host again. But then we lost 5 straight SEC games and finished 2-8 in SEC play, and I'm back to wondering if we're going to make it into the NCAA Tournament. The good news is that we can't go 0-2 in the SEC Tournament. That would seal our deal. I'd like to see us get at least a couple of wins in Hoover. I think this year's SECT is more important than it is in most years. I could easily see us missing the Tournament, but even if we went 0-1 I wouldn't be terribly surprised if they grabbed us late.

    Go GATORS!
    ,WESGATORS
  10. gatorbogey
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    gatorbogey Active Member

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    is there an ncaa tournament selection show on air [tv] for baseball? and if there is, what time/channel does it air?
  11. MatsideObserver
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    MatsideObserver Member

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    Holding out hope also. Do you think they would pull us in with the type of finish this team has had? I almost think we need to be one of the last 4 teams standing at the SECT.
  12. penleydr
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    penleydr New Member

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    I think we need to win at least two games in the sec tournament. Anything less and we are probably done
  13. MichaelJoeWilliamson
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    MichaelJoeWilliamson Well-Known Member

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    With losing the last two series against a mediocre Auburn team and a terrible Georgia team, this Florida squad is squarely on the NCAA bubble.

    IMO of course
  14. ufgator4ever
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    ufgator4ever Well-Known Member

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    Sadly, I think this team is out, trying to play itself in.
    The last two weekends have shown the team is going in the wrong direction and the committee will take that into account.
  15. jhfxof
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    jhfxof Active Member

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  16. WESGATORS
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    WESGATORS Well-Known Member

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    It's usually at noon the Monday after the conference tournaments are complete. Check ESPNU scheduling for Monday, May 27th.

    Go GATORS!
    ,WESGATORS
  17. WESGATORS
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    WESGATORS Well-Known Member

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    Everything looks acceptable except for the way we ended the season in conference play. 2-8 is pretty bad. The committee has shown no problem taking fewer than 8 SEC teams in the past, but you never know.

    Last team in from the SEC (last 5 years):

    2012 - Ole Miss, SECT #9 (1-2), 14-16 conference record, rpi 26 (Georgia the #8 seed in SECT went 0-2 in Hoover, rpi 51)
    2011 - Alabama, SECT #7 (1-2), 14-16 conference record, rpi 32 (Auburn the #8 seed in SECT went 0-2 in Hoover, rpi 42)
    2010 - Alabama, SECT #7 (lost in SECT Championship against #8 seed LSU), 15-15 conference record, rpi 14 (Kentucky the #9 SEC Team, 13-17, rpi 33)
    2009 - Vanderbilt, SECT #8 (lost in SECT Championship to eventual national champion LSU), 12-17 conference record, rpi 27 - huge boost in SECT (Kentucky the SEC #9 team went 12-18, rpi 41)
    2008 - Arkansas, SEC #9, 14-15, rpi 23 (Tennessee the #10 SEC team, 12-18, rpi 84)

    Statistically, the GATORS are in much better shape than all of these first teams out, and comparable shape to the last teams in. The only thing that doesn't play well for FLORIDA is the late slump. I think it would be really easy to leave FLORIDA out with a 0-1 or even a 1-2 performance.

    This year:
    0-1 means a loss to Texas A&M (rpi 45) - we're toast if this happens (in my opinion)
    1-2 means a win against Texas A&M (45), a loss against Vanderbilt (1), and a loss against any of South Carolina (11), Mississippi State (10), Missouri (141). I don't think this hurts us unless that second loss is to Missouri. Still marginal/bubble, though
    Any 2 wins means that one of them is against Vanderbilt, and that will put us in to the NCAA Tournament for sure.

    Go GATORS!
    ,WESGATORS

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