Naval escalation in the Asian Theater

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by HallGator, Dec 24, 2013.

  1. gatorev12
    Offline

    gatorev12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2009
    Messages:
    11,695
    Likes Received:
    287
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +1,534
    Though I think you make several good points and interesting observations, I respectfully disagree chem. China's foreign policy has been far more aggressive within the last 5 years--and it's been done with the active approval and cheerleading from many within the Chinese population.

    Are they spoiling for a war? Some, maybe--and I'd even be willing to concede that it's far from a majority of the population. But far more than were spoiling for a fight 5 years ago or 10. The numbers are growing as nationalism is resurgent among the young and urban citizens of China. And that is why every single one of China's neighbors have been scrambling to try and make friends with the US over the last few years, hoping a regional alliance will be a bulwark against a more aggressive Chinese foreign policy.
  2. HallGator
    Online

    HallGator Administrator VIP Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    43,598
    Likes Received:
    945
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Outer Limits
    Ratings Received:
    +3,702
    Could we have done without their cheap products better than they could have done without our money? I think the answer to that is "yes."
  3. chemgator
    Offline

    chemgator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    8,729
    Likes Received:
    239
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +1,176
    The real question is why did all of our manufacturing go to China in the first place? Low wages is not the whole answer. I would say it is not even half the answer. The U.S. actively pushed manufacturing out in the 1990's, and actively invested in China at the same time. There is a very good book called "Mr. China" that describes the process and reasons for U.S. investment in China. The book is an amazing tale of how all of this went down--I highly recommend it. Not all of it was U.S. corporations looking to move manufacturing overseas. A lot of it was U.S. retirement funds looking to maintain high returns on investment (after the initial high returns related to the internet explosion) and finding few obstacles to investing in foreign countries. Bill Clinton dropped the ball on this, IMO (just like GWB dropped the ball on correcting Clinton's huge mistake in the buildup to the housing collapse). The fact that Clinton pushed through NAFTA (another massive failure) to increase American investment in Mexico makes me wonder if Clinton actively promoted the investments in China. Clinton was foolish enough to think that the internet boom was permanent, so "what difference does it make" if we export our dollars to invest in the development of other countries (we have plenty of money and always will!)?

    Another huge issue is: how much have we increased regulations on manufacturing corporations in the last 20 years? What regulations have decreased? How does the U.S. tax structure for corporations compare to foreign countries? The taxes in China for corporations are about 35-40% officially, but I do not know how much is actually levied or how easy it is to "adjust the books" to avoid declaring profits.
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2013
    • Like Like x 2
  4. chemgator
    Offline

    chemgator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    8,729
    Likes Received:
    239
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +1,176
    I can only go my my own experience. I spent about half of the year in China. Never saw a protest or demonstration. Very few people even brought up the issue (or any foreign policy issue). Never got a dirty look that I know of. I did get a few stares that are common in "the suburbs" because they don't see that many westerners outside of the downtown areas. I occasionally had generic political discussions (one revolved around how much better it apparently is to only have one party to choose from, haha).
  5. gatorev12
    Offline

    gatorev12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2009
    Messages:
    11,695
    Likes Received:
    287
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +1,534
    Excellent post.

    As the cost of manufacturing has started to rise in China (namely due to the rising cost of wages in most Chinese factories), you'll eventually see a shift where companies will face a choice of moving the jobs out of China to a cheaper location--or back home to the US, where labor might be a little more expensive; but there's more tax benefits and market benefits (many consumers try and buy US-made products when given the choice because they know it supports domestic jobs). My hope is that things will have come full-circle and our country has realized the need to maintain a strong manufacturing element to our economy.
  6. HallGator
    Online

    HallGator Administrator VIP Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    43,598
    Likes Received:
    945
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Outer Limits
    Ratings Received:
    +3,702

    Thanks, I will order it. Just want to make sure this is the one you are talking about:

    http://www.amazon.com/Mr-China-Memoir-Tim-Clissold/dp/0060761407
  7. HallGator
    Online

    HallGator Administrator VIP Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    43,598
    Likes Received:
    945
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Outer Limits
    Ratings Received:
    +3,702
    This. At some point we have to realize short term gains may have long term negative consequences. I believe one of our biggest issues is that, as a nation, we don't look far enough into the future. Had we done so the lip service given to a sound energy policy that we heard in the seventies would have born better fruit.
    • Agree Agree x 2
  8. chemgator
    Offline

    chemgator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    8,729
    Likes Received:
    239
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +1,176
  9. G8trGr8t
    Offline

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2008
    Messages:
    14,570
    Likes Received:
    1,094
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    SW Florida
    Ratings Received:
    +2,372
    Clinton was convinced that the country could prosper as a service economy. He was another clueless idealist. Lucky for him he had a pub congress with a real fiscally conservative agenda to save him from himself. Too bad that the pub party lost their way and reverted to just another big spender shortly after W got elected.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  10. HallGator
    Online

    HallGator Administrator VIP Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    43,598
    Likes Received:
    945
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Outer Limits
    Ratings Received:
    +3,702

    I ordered it. Should be interesting.
  11. tideh8rGator
    Offline

    tideh8rGator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    3,502
    Likes Received:
    61
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Stuck in the heart of crimson darkness
    Ratings Received:
    +371
    WWII was a blip on the screen of history. Japan had its ONLY massive surge of nationalism and imperialism at that time. China has long since retired the prize for Far Eastern imperialist aggression historically. Of course, socialism/communism changes the game for all countries who fall into its clutches. It is a given that such countries embrace the old Marxist dream of conquest and world domination. China sees Russia as heretical sellouts who abandoned the True Cause and China is more than willing to go it alone and make the 2000's the "China Century"... if they can.

    They are simply reverting to native... emboldened by our debt situation and by our clueless wannabe socialist/muslim president who would never dare stand up to them. I don't hold Bush Sr. faultless in this either, he cozied up to them in his term and set the stage for many headaches ahead.

    Strengthening our alliances with S. Korea, Japan and the Philippines is a matter of survival.
  12. chemgator
    Offline

    chemgator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    8,729
    Likes Received:
    239
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +1,176
    Japan's imperialist surge started decades before WWII. It started before WWI, in fact. (Ask Koreans about this.)

    China was isolationist for much of its history, also. And it was on the receiving end of some colonialist abuse from Great Britain in the 1800's. China has no love lost for the old USSR. China purposely built factories for war material in the most remote corners of their country in the 1950's so the Soviets would have a harder time destroying them if they decided to invade. China really doesn't care about Marxism anymore. Chairman Mao was the last leader to truly embrace communism and commit to his own version of it. Leaders afterwards just used communism as a system to hold onto power as they introduced elements of capitalism that made their country more competitive.

    I think the biggest thing driving the Chinese government towards throwing their weight around with military posturing is the following:

    a) Recent change in leadership, which happens every ten years. New leaders in Asian countries tend to try to demonstrate how powerful they are with military posturing (see: Korea, North). The Chinese government does not want to lose the respect (or fear) of the people.

    b) Social unrest with the people. As the Chinese people get wealthier, they tend to expect less corruption and more efficiency from their government, as well as a climate of fairness and competent regulation (pollution control, etc.). With greater access to the internet and more travel opportunities, they see how governments in wealthy areas like Europe and the U.S. function, and expect the Chinese government to do as well or better. The more that the Chinese people get, the more they want. This is common for nations that advance quickly.

    Many countries persuade their people to look for villains outside the country to get them to ignore problems within the country. Iran did this for decades, blaming the Great Satan for all of their problems.
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2014

Share This Page