Nate Silver's odds

Discussion in 'Nuttin' but Net' started by oragator1, Mar 17, 2014.

  1. oragator1
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    oragator1 Premium Member

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    He has us at 41% to get to the final 4.
    For winning it all he has:

    Louisville at 15%
    UF at 14%
    Arizona at 13%
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  2. gatorr4life
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    Who's Nate Silver?
  3. Gatorrick22
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    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

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    Who is Louisville... this year...
  4. G8rNkoko
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    G8rNkoko Well-Known Member

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    The Vegas future odds have already been posted, according to FoxSports1 program "Let it Ride." The line is currently Florida at 4/1 Mich St is second at 9/2.
  5. Gatorrick22
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    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

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    I think we can beat MSU this year.
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  6. Tebowism0823
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    Don't sleep on Louisville bro. They're a very good team.
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  7. oragator1
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    oragator1 Premium Member

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    He was one of the early saber metrics guys in baseball, took his statistical analysis to politics where he had his own blog that was bought by the NY Times, he correctly called all 50 states in the 2012 election... after the 2012 election Espn picked him up to do something similar for sports. He is pretty good at what he does.
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  8. BengermanV
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    Yep, Silver is the best at this stuff, no question.

    But I wouldn't let that 43% success rate worry you. Chances go up if Kansas loses. And every win, your percentage will get a little higher. Just have to rely on this team being able to go through the few couple of rounds, which I think is much higher than 50%. If we win, and Kansas loses (or Embiid just isn't healthy), our odds probably go up closer to 60%, maybe even higher.
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  9. SeaBud
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    SeaBud Active Member

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    Understatement of the year. Read his book "The Signal and the Noise". If you have a brain, an interest in understanding the world around you and some mathematical/statistical ability, you will be better armed to understand the world. From poker, to elections to the stock market, being able to decipher information from "noise" is vastly under rated in the world today… thank goodness.
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  10. gatorr4life
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    Wheres
    Thanks
  11. madgator
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    madgator Well-Known Member

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    It's Nate Silvers world......we just give him stuff to calculate
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  12. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    43% is pretty damn high. And I doubt that it is all that dependent on Kansas either, as Syracuse probably carries about the same power rating.
  13. corpgator
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    corpgator Well-Known Member

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    Everyone's chances will actually go down after first round unless there are upsets since you will go from the possibility of facing a bad team to the certainty of playing a good one. After that, it goes up as you beat the good teams.
  14. GatorRx87
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    I sure hope so....most of the media guy last night picked MSU to win it all since they have gotten healthy.
  15. BengermanV
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    Definitely, 43% is really great. And I doubt Syracuse is rated as highly by Silver. Most advanced metrics have Syracuse being not being as good as Kansas.
  16. GothamGator
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  17. GatorRade
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    You're definitely right that most metrics have dropped Syracuse during their string of losses, but I thought that they had stayed in the range of Kansas. KenPom has Kansas at 0.91 (9th) and Syracuse at 0.89 (15th), so they are pretty close.

    Silver's model is tougher to decipher, as Gotham's link only gives us % chances. It looks like his model gives Syracuse about a 46% chance of making the elite 8, if they can get to the sweet 16. Meanwhile, it gives Kansas about a 62% chance, if they can get there. Of course, each of those odds isn't based solely on playing each other, as Ohio State and New Mexico have chances to be there instead. Kansas is certainly some kind of a favorite, but it is hard to tell how much of one.
  18. bakaduin
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    This just goes to show you how difficult it is to win the tournament. To many, including Vegas, we are the favorite yet we have a 14% chance of winning it all. It is such a crap shoot. The good news is win or lose we have had one of the best seasons in Gator basketball history and have two new banners already to hang up in the ODome.
  19. madgator
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    madgator Well-Known Member

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    This is why I am fascinated to know how the actuaries at Berkshire Hathaway came up with policy premium on the prize, what was actually paid by Quicken, and if BH went out for any reinsurance and what that might've cost on a percentage basis


    When the promotion was announced, Warren Buffett was actually on the Dan Lebatard show on Miami sports talk radio. Lebatard kept trying to get Buffett to say what the premium was. Of course Buffett said that the information was confidential but he guaranteed with a chuckle that Dan Gilbert probably feels like he paid too much and that Buffett personally feels like it should've been more. :)
  20. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    Yeah this is an interesting part of the story. Did you see how Buffett also said that he'd probably try to buyout anyone that reached the final 4 in tact with 100 million dollars?

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