Middle Tennessee Game Box Score MVG: Patric Young

Discussion in 'Nuttin' but Net' started by GatorJason, Nov 21, 2013.

  1. GatorJason
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    GatorJason Well-Known Member

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    Big Patric Young was MVG in turning back the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 79-59. Patric led the Gators in scoring with 16 points including 6-8 from the charity stripe, and pulled down 6 rebounds with 3 assists to earn a value score of 77. Casey Prather was in foul trouble in the first half and did not score until the second half when he and the Gators caught fire. Casey scored 11 points on 4-5 shooting with 4 rebounds 2 assists and 2 steals to earn 51 value credits. Will Yeguete nosed out several Gators for the third spot, as he also was 4-5 from the field with 5 rebounds for a value score of 47.

    Florida played tough defense in the first half holding Middle Tennessee to 26 points as the Gators struggled themselves in scoring 34 without a true point guard and Prather on the bench in early foul trouble. Both teams opened up in the 2nd half with the athleticism of Prather and Finney-Smith out pacing the Blue Raider offense. As expected the assist/turnover ratio was mediocre at 10/12 but the Gators were able to gain a 7 board rebound advantage and shot a sizzling 83% from the line to offset the uneven play without either Hill or Wilbekin at point.

    Box Score Value Leaders:
    Young..........77
    Prather.....'...51
    Yeguete.......47
    Click on thumbnail below for all Value Scores.

    Value Credits* are assigned as follows:
    +5 credits for each Steal and Assist
    +4 credits for each Point scored, Rebound and Block
    .-5 credits for each Turnover
    .-2 credits for each Field Goal Attempt
    .-1 credit for each Free Throw Attempt
    * Value Credits are based solely on Box Score data and do not reflect total game contributions by players

    [​IMG]

    Middle Tennessee Blue Raider Game Official Box Score

    The Gators play Jacksonville on Monday Nov 25 @ 7:00 ET.
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  2. gtr2x
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    gtr2x Well-Known Member

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    Yep, thought Young played great, gotten better every game so far and was very aggressive tonight. Not every day your center gets 3 assists and 2 steals. A nice 6 for 8 at the free throw line also.

    On a different note, its been awhile since I've seen a Gator team drive the ball inside and finish like this team does. Free throw shooting will be big and shooting over 80% tonight was good to see.
  3. themistocles
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    themistocles Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, great to see Young healthy and playing well. 83% from the charity stripe, given this group's historic tendencies was great, but not necessarily to be expected in future games.

    As I've said all year: "If this team could shoot, they would be dangerous." Actually, they seem pretty dangerous even when they can't hit the proverbial broad side of a barn door.
  4. oneatatime
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    oneatatime Well-Known Member

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    Patric seems to be the kind of guy where you can predict how plays based on the first 5-10 minutes of the game.

    When he is active early but stays out of foul trouble he plays great. Otherwise, he both literally and figuratively disappears.

    I believe that once Harris returns, he won't have to be as concerned about fouls and can play with even greater intensity while he is on the court
  5. rserina
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    rserina VIP Member

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    Donovan was asked about this in the post-game presser and he facetiously said that if Billy Jr. hadn't missed two threes, they would have been 40%.

    I think the shooting thing will come in time. This won't be Donovan's best shooting team, as we've known all along, but it can still be good once Wilbekin gets back and some of the guys are back in their normal positions, playing fewer minutes with fresher legs, etc. DFS and Frazier are both at nearly 45%. What we need are more shots going up, but that is hard with some of the position switches. When Frazier, DFS, and Walker are on the ball or initiating the offense, they are very hesitant about taking an open shot, even if it is open. When they slide back to their more comfortable roles, I think the perimeter shooting will improve--even more so when you have Hill breaking teams down off the bounce and three shooters or so spacing the floor.
  6. g8rboy
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    g8rboy Well-Known Member

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    reminds me of tyus in that respect.
  7. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    I know that you are probably tired of talking about your formula, Jason, but as a geek, I can't help thinking about it. One thing that occurs to me now is that points seem undervalued compared to steals/turnovers.

    If I make a layup, I earn 6 total value credits (8 for the 2 points, minus 2 for the shot attempt). If I commit a turnover, I lose 5 value credits. This indicates that we are valuing 1 point as 0.6 of the value of a possession. However, the Gator offense is probably going to average something around 1.1-1.2 points per possession this year (we are 1.1 right now). Therefore, if we are going to keep a turnover at 5 credits, shouldn't a made two-point basket be worth something closer to 10-12 credits?
  8. regurgigator
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    regurgigator VIP Member

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    Thanks for doing this!

    Not that I want you to change his score, but I don't blame Young for one of his turnovers (at about the 18-minute mark of the second half). He was double-teamed and tried to find someone to pass to for several seconds, but none of his teammates moved! He finally tried to take it to the hoop, but traveled. :angry:

    I thought that was our most frustrating possession of the game....but, I missed the first 10 minutes, which I understand was not the best basketball ever played :whistle: :joecool:
  9. rserina
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    rserina VIP Member

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    I am just waiting for Jason to go all analytic, Sabremetrics on us.
  10. GatorJason
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    GatorJason Well-Known Member

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    I never attempted to correlate value credits to points scored or points per possession. Value Scores are more of an attempt to look at individual contributions to the success of the team. I've been doing this for a year or so and the players who score points on court usually score pretty high in value credits. Those guys are compensated enough, especially if they can shoot the 3-ball well, they can accumulate a lot of credits quickly. And just because a player scores the basket doesn't mean they did all the work. An assist often makes the bucket easier and a player can only get credit for a good pass for an assist if another player makes the bucket. Often good passes go unrewarded. Similarly a blocked shot does not necessarily mean a change in possession but it has a value simply because it reflects an element of intimidation and of defensive prowess. Steals and Turnovers are inversely equivalent and often lead to a change in the momentum of a game. They are a bit more valued than a rebound which occurs after a team has made an attempt at a bucket and possession is up for grabs (versus taken away or given away by a steal or turnover).

    The biggest flaw in the Value Credit is all the little stuff players must do to make a team successful that never show up in a box score. We can see the positive impact of making a 3-point basket but we do not see a negative stat for a player who fails to cover a player at the 3-point line and letting opponent score. (I'm sure the coaches keep track of that even though it doesn't show up in the stat sheet.) We don't see stats for the picks/screens that our big men contribute that help others score. We don't see stats for plays where the opponent has to make an adjustment to their shot to avoid a block. IMO, these are the aspects that don't get captured in box scores and why players like Patric Young are always inadequately compensated. For the things that are captured in box score statistics, the Value Credit system seems to correlate fairly closely to who people subjectively assess as the biggest contributing players in a game.
  11. regurgigator
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    regurgigator VIP Member

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    Well said.
  12. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    I don't disagree with any of this, Jason. My only comment addresses the fact that some of these value credits are internally related. Therefore, we should be able to use these internal relationships to quantify these factors. In this way, I think that it is totally appropriate to give the same value to a steal and TO, as these are directly inverse - a gain of a possession vs. a loss of a possession. However, two points aren't directly comparable to one possession. It is something closer to one point. Obviously much more usually goes into a basket than the shot itself, but if we are going to quantify gaining a possession, I think we should take this into account when we value the possession.

    As you stated very well, we are never going to get all the little things -the "glue guy" things- that go into successful basketball by simply using numbers. However, we can try to ensure that our numerical values maintain a certain level of internal consistency. A possession must be worth much less than two points, because no team shoots anywhere near 100%. A steal is great, but if you miss the shot and the other team rebounds (which happens frequently), then it is as if it didn't happen.
  13. corpgator
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    corpgator Well-Known Member

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    I've tried to argue that assists are overvalued and rebounds undervalued. Even if you make a good pass, the guy still has to score the ball and rebounds are a possession so they should count the same as a steal.
  14. jareduf
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    jareduf Well-Known Member

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    Best game Young has played in awhile. We need that kind of effort going forward.
  15. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    Assists are a tough one, since there is so much variability. You can have Calathes-style assists that basically create the shot, or you can have a pass to the corner where Frazier hits a somewhat contested three. So I'm good with almost value for an assist.

    And I definitely get what you are saying with rebounds, but I am still not sure that a defensive rebound should count the same as a steal, as in one case the other team already has possession, so they basically have one point taken away by the steal. When the ball is in the air before a rebound, neither team is really in control of the possession, and the defensive team probably has the advantage. That said, if you allow an offensive rebound (or get one yourself), it is an additional possession.
  16. corpgator
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    corpgator Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I meant to say offensive rebound. Offensive rebounds are generally an individual effort, but a great defensive rebounder is actually just taking rebounds away from his teammates, but that does allow for them to get out in transition.

    Assists are generally overvalued by everyone in my opinion since they are so subjective and don't take into account whether, as you said, the pass actually led to the basket.

    Still, I'm not picking on you Jason as I like your recaps, I'm just a big stat guy myself (I'm getting a masters in MIS and do some data mining) and like getting into how various ratings work.

    I'm probably going to write a program to chew through our box scores and compute various things merely as an exercise since Pomeroy already does it anyway.
  17. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    Agreed on basically everything.

    And I'm not intending to pick on you either Jason. I'm also just into thinking about the quantification of good basketball.
  18. GatorJason
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    GatorJason Well-Known Member

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    A potential compromise for valuing "points scored". Change FGA to -1.5 from -2.0.

    Currently 4 credits per point with 2 credit penalty for each FGA.
    A good shooter will hit 50% so there is a negative 4 credit for each bucket made.
    So a 2-point basket on 2 FGAs = (2 x 4) - (2 x 2) = 4 = same credit as rebound but less than an assist (5).

    Revised 2-point basket score with -1.5 for FGA & 2 FGAs = (2 x 4) - (2 x 1.5) = 5 or equal value as an assist.

    I will not change the rebound credit factor. Rebounds are gains of possession "after" a shot attempt. Steals and Turnovers occur before the team originally in possession even gets a shot off. They have to be valued more than gaining possession of a loose ball after a shot attempt.

    Below is a thumbnail link to what the revised Value Credit scores would be for the MTSU game.
    Essentially no change in the rank order of the players although value scores are higher.

    -1.5 FGA: [​IMG]

    -2.0 FGA: [​IMG]
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  19. regurgigator
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    regurgigator VIP Member

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    Good compromise.

    I disagree that the assist is overvalued. I would actually have the assist have the same value as making the bucket as the assist is often a bigger part of the score than the score itself (although most assists on jump shots aren't as important as the shot IMO). When a player breaks down the defense (or "just" sees a passing lane through the defense) and passes to a teammate for an open layup or dunk, that player has done more to create the score than the scorer (no matter how exciting the resulting dunk may be).

    And, all assists lead directly to a score while - as mentioned - only half of rebounds lead to a score. I think hockey has it right where a player gets as many points for a goal (1) as for an assist (1) and even for an assist of an assist (1). Of course, I was a pass-first PG in my prime :wink:
  20. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    Yeah works for me. Thanks for looking into it, Jason.

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