Marshall Henderson and that Gator chomp of his

Discussion in 'Nuttin' but Net' started by deathroll, Feb 18, 2014.

  1. Swamp_of_Gators
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    Swamp_of_Gators Well-Known Member

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    After thinking I might need to find a defibrillator last night, I'd like to retract this part. I'd like nothing more than blowouts the rest of the season.
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  2. NitroSmoke
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    NitroSmoke Well-Known Member

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    I hope we completely dismantle them....on their wood....on national TV. And I hope we do it our way which wont be crowing in his face and taunting. Just shut him down, dominate them completely, and get on the plane #1 in the land!!!!
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  3. wulimaster
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    wulimaster Member

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    Landshark. Is that the retarded thing he does with his thumb to his forehead and his tongue out? Always wondered what that was all about.
  4. GothamGator
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    GothamGator VIP Member

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    Rick Serina is basically correct (as usual). Henderson's ability to hit crazy threes is not a liability. He is shooting 35.7% from three point land in conference play, which is the equivalent of shooting 53.6% on two point shots. And he does this on a very large volume of shots - 12.73 per game. The next closest are Mike Frazier II and Rod Odom of Vandy who are shooting 8.07 per game. This is important, because it suggests he is taking 4-5 shots per game that other players are passing up and still performing at a high level.

    Plus, Ole Miss overall is shooting 44.0% on twos and has an overall efficiency for twos and threes combined of 47.3%. Given that, it's hard to say that Henderson should tone down his 3-point shooting much at all. Granted, his least efficient shot is not going to be as good as his average shot, but overall, he performing at a high level for his team.
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  5. RD_gator
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    RD_gator Well-Known Member

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    ^ Then, the winning formula against Henderson would be to limit his 3pt-shot attempts if that can be possible.
  6. deathroll
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    deathroll Well-Known Member

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    http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/ole/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/2013-14/stats/season_stats.pdf

    Henderson and the teams stats above.

    Still curious to know what his teammates think of a guy that shoots 13 three pointers per game. Guy shoots 37% from 3 point land but he has 3 players on his team that shoot a higher percentage and they're not chucking up 13 treys per game.

    As you'd expect, there are a LOT better 2 point options (working it inside) than just letting Marshall chuck up another long range, off-balance hope.

    I personally don't get it but it sure is fun to watch.

    Saturday should be fun.
    Last edited: Feb 20, 2014
  7. gatordavisl
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    gatordavisl Well-Known Member

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    Didn't realize Ole Miss has lost three in a row and five out of their last seven. They will really want this game, which would go a long way to stop the bleeding.
  8. Brewski
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    Brewski Well-Known Member

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    I can't wait to play a team that wants to lose against us. ; )
    Maybe S. Carolina.
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  9. maxgator
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    maxgator Well-Known Member

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    I "coach" my sons nfl flag team for 5-8.

    I swear he played on that team.

    Best player on the team.

    Insufferable.

    Would do nothing he was asked.

    Pouted if he didn't get the ball.

    Bitched about play calling when he didn't get the ball.

    Made incredible runs.

    Pitched temper tantrums every game.

    Always wanted to win.

    Actually, really, laid on the ground at midfield and cried because he didn't get the ball.

    Mama actually came on to the field to comfort him.

    While I and the rest of the kids stood there and watched him.

    Oh, and the kid who got the ball ALMOST scored a goal line to goal line td.

    Glad he is gone this year.
  10. TampaGatorFan
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    TampaGatorFan Well-Known Member

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    Send Kurtz in to lay Henderson out two minutes into the game. :D
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  11. tommyvee
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    tommyvee Well-Known Member

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    Haha...when did Kurtz become our goon?
  12. tommyvee
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    tommyvee Well-Known Member

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    Reminds me of ESPN 30 for 30: Unguarded on Chris Herren. Great documentary and explains a lot about Henderson.
  13. tommyvee
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    tommyvee Well-Known Member

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    Great article. This is Moneyball stuff for basketball. Would love to put together a winning team based on undervalued players with high ShotScores.
  14. TampaGatorFan
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    TampaGatorFan Well-Known Member

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    Kurtz getting ejected won't hurt us as much.
  15. HallGator
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    HallGator Administrator VIP Member

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    I was thinking about sending a note to Tonya Harding saying he had dissed her on national TV.
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  16. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    Too funny, Hall!
  17. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    Well said, Gotham. Shooting high volumes always lowers one's expected points per possession. If he is still averaging an effective FG% above 50% with that high of a volume, it is extremely impressive.
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2014
  18. G8trJasonB
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    G8trJasonB Premium Member Premium Member

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    From the UK boards...
    [​IMG]
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  19. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    I think part of the key to answering this riddle is what Gotham said above you (and what I replied to him). On any given possession, what constitutes a good decision will change. If Henderson is double covered and shoots a long three when another player is wide open under the basket, he very much hurt his team's expected point return. You need to give the ball to every open player under the basket every time.

    Now picture that I am a player that will only shoot when open under the basket. I shoot about 99% for my team. However, this isn't a very common occurrence, so I only average around 3 points/game. Using your analysis, we would conclude that Henderson needs to shoot less, and I need to shoot more. In fact, I should be the only one shooting for Ole Miss, but from this simplified example, it is not clear that I am a good offensive player at all. I might average only 5 points/game on 20 shots, even though I average 3 pts/game on 1.5 shots.

    Every player has an average curve of expected points/possession that declines as volume of shooting increases. Just because player A displays a higher efficiency at their current shot volume than player B doesn't necessarily mean that any of player B's shots should be transferred to player A. Henderson is a rare example of high volume and decent efficiency. You can also picture guys Kobe, who shoot crazy stuff, but still make some of it. The other side of the coin is a guy like Prather, who this year only takes high percentage shots. His efficiency is sky high, but it would no doubt begin to tumble, if we made him shoot more often than he does on his own because he would have to take more difficult shots.
  20. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    Totally. If you like that one, tommy, you have to check out the latest analytics article on Grantland. Now these guys are really threatening to turn the art of basketball into a science:

    With an ocean of new statistical information available, the NBA could be on the verge of understanding the value of every single movement on the court. Welcome to the era of EPV.


    http://grantland.com/features/expected-value-possession-nba-analytics/
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