KenPom vs. RPI

Discussion in 'Nuttin' but Net' started by gogators73, Feb 11, 2018.

  1. gogators73
    Offline

    gogators73 GC Legend

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2007
    Messages:
    2,093
    Likes Received:
    36
    Trophy Points:
    203
    Location:
    St. Petersburg, FL
    Ratings Received:
    +171
    Normally I like RPI because it seems to be very friendly to us since we started adjusting our schedule, but with all of our home losses this year, our RPI is 47 and KenPom is 27.

    Other than our horrible RPI, our resume isn't much different than teams being projected in the 4-seed range.

    If we finish 2-4 with wins over Georgia and Kentucky, what are the chances we get left out? I just can't imagine us being left out just because one part of our resume (RPI) is horrible. Although you could argue our loss total (which would be 13 with an SECT loss) is also horrible.
    • Informative Informative x 1
  2. swampgas44
    Offline

    swampgas44 Junior

    Joined:
    Feb 1, 2012
    Messages:
    1,525
    Likes Received:
    230
    Trophy Points:
    253
    Ratings Received:
    +2,107
    Our RPI was sabotaged by 4 of the first teams we played have W-L records of 12-15,11-17,10-16, an5-17. Our record vs top 50 is best in the SEC (7-3) Auburn is 4-1.
    • Informative Informative x 1
  3. jareduf
    Offline

    jareduf GC Legend

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    2,680
    Likes Received:
    45
    Trophy Points:
    188
    Location:
    Bala Cynwyd, PA
    Ratings Received:
    +725
    I have no idea why RPI is so down on us this year. I guess home losses as you said seem to be really hurting us, as well as some of the bottom feeders on our schedule are not doing well and have very low RPI's. We're 27 on Kenpom and 29 on BPI and i think this is much more in the range where we should be. Wins against Gonzaga and Cincy on neutral courts, plus wins at Texas A&M, Missouri and UK are all really impressive.

    2 more regular season wins and i think we're in no matter what. However, with a 2-4 finish and no wins in the SEC tournament we could be looking at a 10-11 seed and possibly being in the first four games.

    If we go 3-3 and get to 11 regular season SEC wins, it will probably get us a double bye in the SEC tournament and a chance with at least 1 SEC tournament win, to possibly get up to a 6 or 7 seed.

    Of course more wins will get us even higher. If we can win out at home and steal a game at Vandy, that would be 12 SEC regular season wins, plus huge RPI boost wins against Auburn and UK. However, this team can easily win only 1 or 2 of their remaining games seeing how inconsistent they have been. Hopefully the light has finally gone on for this team and at worse go 3-3 in our final 6 games.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  4. shane4three
    Offline

    shane4three GC Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Dec 24, 2014
    Messages:
    1,105
    Likes Received:
    178
    Trophy Points:
    278
    Ratings Received:
    +2,004
    It's about bad losses as was mentioned several weeks ago. Many don't like to hear that but bad losses are a real thing. The Georgia game Wednesday night is a big game especially considering they are considered a bad loss already once.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  5. GatorLurker
    Offline

    GatorLurker GC Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    3,841
    Likes Received:
    748
    Trophy Points:
    393
    Ratings Received:
    +5,227
    Stop living in the past.

    The RPI is the stupidest metric ever invented.

    It was invented to give the NCAA committee some cover for leaving out teams with good won/loss records that played really weak schedules. Valvano famously said that all he needed to do was schedule a lot of OOC cupcakes to get to twenty wins and he would be in. And teams like Duke learned how to game the metric by playing strong mid-majors at home, which they could do because of the ESPN $'s, and then beat them. And then they got inflated seeding for the tournament.

    Sagarin Predictor and KenPom are much better assessments and predictors of games to be played.
  6. number1
    Offline

    number1 All SEC

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2011
    Messages:
    3,414
    Likes Received:
    263
    Trophy Points:
    103
    Ratings Received:
    +2,174
    Georgia and Vanderbilt are must-wins for us. Then we can split the last 4 and finish 12-6.
    • Winner Winner x 1
  7. GatorLurker
    Offline

    GatorLurker GC Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    3,841
    Likes Received:
    748
    Trophy Points:
    393
    Ratings Received:
    +5,227
    I can live with 11-7. That will get us in. In fact I would be shocked if we didn't get in with 9-9 in league play. We have too many good wins away from home to keep us out.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  8. BA69MA72
    Offline

    BA69MA72 GC Legend

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    264
    Likes Received:
    24
    Trophy Points:
    198
    Ratings Received:
    +214
    As strong as the conference has been, 10 conference wins should get us in. Don’t know about the seed
    • Agree Agree x 1
  9. WESGATORS
    Offline

    WESGATORS Moderator

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    22,309
    Likes Received:
    960
    Trophy Points:
    948
    Ratings Received:
    +8,364
    The committee has said for years that it's more about who you beat than who you lost to. Sure, if metrics are similar, they'll compare how bad the losses were, but that's AFTER looking at who you beat and the other positive metrics.

    Go GATORS!
    ,WESGATORS
    • Like Like x 1
    • Agree Agree x 1
  10. WESGATORS
    Offline

    WESGATORS Moderator

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    22,309
    Likes Received:
    960
    Trophy Points:
    948
    Ratings Received:
    +8,364
    Georgia and Vanderbilt are the two least important games on our schedule the rest of the way out; they are the farthest things from must-win games. Far more value to be gained from every other game on our schedule than these two.

    Go GATORS!
    ,WESGATORS
    • Like Like x 1
    • Dislike Dislike x 1
  11. WESGATORS
    Offline

    WESGATORS Moderator

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    22,309
    Likes Received:
    960
    Trophy Points:
    948
    Ratings Received:
    +8,364
    Our RPI stinks for 5 reasons:

    #1 - #348 Incarnate Word
    #2 - #298 New Hampshire
    #3 - #291 James Madison
    #4 - #257 Gardner-Webb
    #5 - #216 UNF

    There was never any good reason for us to schedule these 5 teams, let alone bringing 5 garbage game to the O'DOME as a means to build fan support.

    Go GATORS!
    ,WESGATORS
    • Agree Agree x 1
    • Winner Winner x 1
    • Informative Informative x 1
  12. ArtVandelay
    Online

    ArtVandelay GC Legend

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2011
    Messages:
    4,563
    Likes Received:
    500
    Trophy Points:
    223
    Location:
    South Florida
    Ratings Received:
    +4,295
    Looks like this guy agrees with you.

    http://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...l-selection-committee-apply-metrics-correctly
  13. GatorRade
    Online

    GatorRade Rad Scientist Premium Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    7,549
    Likes Received:
    759
    Trophy Points:
    518
    Ratings Received:
    +10,075
    RPI doesn't actually measure bad losses. It's just about your record and the record of your opponents (and actually their opponents). So you could be 20-5 by losing to the five worst teams on your schedule or the five best teams, and your RPI would be the same in both cases.

    Now these good wins are used by the seeding committee.
  14. shane4three
    Offline

    shane4three GC Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Dec 24, 2014
    Messages:
    1,105
    Likes Received:
    178
    Trophy Points:
    278
    Ratings Received:
    +2,004
    Disagree. Even heard "bad losses" talked about.
    If you don't think Georgia and Vandy are huge games… Let's see what happens if we happen to lose one of those two games. What do you think a number 10 or 11 Seed Would become with another loss to Georgia or Vandy? Answer would be last four in or next 4 out, proving the point that there is such a thing as a good loss and bad loss
    • Agree Agree x 1
  15. number1
    Offline

    number1 All SEC

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2011
    Messages:
    3,414
    Likes Received:
    263
    Trophy Points:
    103
    Ratings Received:
    +2,174
    Especially with Georgia being a home game.
  16. ncbullgator
    Offline

    ncbullgator GC Legend

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    4,435
    Likes Received:
    166
    Trophy Points:
    238
    Ratings Received:
    +2,376
    UGA and Vandy are must wins. Period.
  17. FranceGator
    Offline

    FranceGator GC Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    1,762
    Likes Received:
    184
    Trophy Points:
    258
    Ratings Received:
    +1,473
    I think we overuse the word "must". It implies "lose that and you're done". Which, dangerously, means the team psychology, should you lose, would be "there is no longer any hope" and they give up. "It was a must...we didn't do it...guess we failed...maybe next year."

    Case in point: how many "must win" games has A&M lost, and here they are ahead of us in ranking/KenPom/bracketology.

    IMO, there's a time to press the panic button. Mid-February, when you're tied for second in the conference, ain't that time.
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2018 at 7:30 PM
    • Agree Agree x 2
    • Like Like x 1
    • Winner Winner x 1
  18. spike718
    Offline

    spike718 GC Legend

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2007
    Messages:
    1,039
    Likes Received:
    111
    Trophy Points:
    213
    Ratings Received:
    +1,097
    I don’t know how Missouri has a higher rpi than us and Jerry Palm has them seeded higher. (Lunardi has Florida higher) in the OOC Florida has beaten two top 10 teams and played duke and Clemson in the top 20. Missouri has beaten zero top 20 twenty OOC teams, let alone played any.
  19. cincinnatigator
    Offline

    cincinnatigator GC Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,914
    Likes Received:
    486
    Trophy Points:
    338
    Location:
    Cincinnati, OH
    Ratings Received:
    +2,224
    Not too worried about the RPI when Rhode Island is in their top 5.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  20. WESGATORS
    Offline

    WESGATORS Moderator

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    22,309
    Likes Received:
    960
    Trophy Points:
    948
    Ratings Received:
    +8,364
    Not usually by committee members; that's the ESPN talking heads approach.

    If you could pick games to win, in order, they'd be (roughly)...

    @ Tennessee
    Auburn
    (those two are far and away THE most important games we have scheduled)

    @ Alabama vs. Kentucky is a toss-up; the road win is more important, but Kentucky (may) still have star power factor. Names removed, @ Alabama is more important.

    THEN you have @ Vandy and then Georgia (those two could flip flop).

    Who you beat is ALWAYS more important than who you lost to. If we are to win only 2 more games the rest of the regular season, it is FAR more advantageous for those wins to be against Tennessee and Auburn than any of the other teams. The good news is, we can at least agree that nothing limits us to only two more wins!

    Go GATORS!
    ,WESGATORS
    • Agree Agree x 1

Share This Page