Just the facts for our gun control members

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by theorangebluewinagain, Aug 10, 2013.

  1. mdgator05
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    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    First, I stated "if they were causal."

    Second, I stated that I am not sure why we are seeing these massively disparate results.

    Mostly, it is important to recognize both results, which result in gun concentration being very strongly negatively correlated with crime. This leads to the rejection of both purely ideological theories on gun ownership. So now the question is how can we deal with this issue in a manner to effectively regulate gun sales such that we might see some of the positive effects from controlling how many households have guns while not threatening the ability of households that are particularly gun loving from owning guns, as these households seem associated with a decrease in crime and certainly not an increase.
  2. asuragator
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    asuragator Well-Known Member

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    Well, I appreciate your effort. It's a start...for more debate, not ending it (see below). :)

    Because both relationships (i.e. ccw laws and crim, and gun ownership and crime) are likely spurious.

    For example, just taking the crime rates from 86-93 (which increased over time) and ccw laws passed during that time (a 124% increase; from 8 to 18 states), the data show very strong statistically significant positive correlations.

    Total violent crime (.908/p .001)
    Murder (.885/p .008)
    Robbery (.956/p .001)
    Property crime (.909/p .005).

    If MJ is correct, then we must also interpret the increase in liberalized gun laws as being correlated to an increase in crime. But given the complete opposite relationship, it's hard to conclude that it not the result of other factors or an artifact of the method and/or data.

    As for rate of gun ownership per household or person, this poses a slightly tougher explanation since guns are concentrated in a much smaller percentage of folks hands thus skewing the per person rate (if I have a 1000 guns and you none, there's a rate of 500 per person etc...). And if we use households as garnered by the GSS or other surveys, they went up between 86 and 94 and down since then, but as wygator suggested, there could be validity issues with the answers (I don't know if there really is, but it's a legitimate question to raise).
  3. MichaelJoeWilliamson
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    MichaelJoeWilliamson Well-Known Member

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    Yet your only "solution" seems to strongly assume that they are casual.

    Probably because using a single variable is not robust. I would think multiple things caused the decline of violent crime. Guns might have an impact, but it is most likely not the only thing, or maybe even the most important thing

    Probably be

    Gun control is not a goal. It is an enumerated right. For example, would you use the same "logic" for free speech?

    You once again seem to be assuming causality.
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  4. MichaelJoeWilliamson
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    MichaelJoeWilliamson Well-Known Member

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    meH. I am not particularly interested to try and convince you on the matter. Do your own work. I provided the math. Yet once again you move the goal posts.

    I will say that you certainly seem to argue more points that do not support gun rights, even as you profess to support gun rights. That is not particularly consistent.
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  5. asuragator
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    asuragator Well-Known Member

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    I did the math (a few times now), the most recent showing how your math doesn't stand up unless you believe that liberalized gun laws correlate to both increasing AND decreasing crime. Explain that one, and maybe we'll get somewhere.

    You call it moving the goal posts but you seem to play that card quite a bit when you don't have a legit response. To determine even just correlation still takes ruling out third factors that might cause the relationship between gun laws and crime to simply appear to be correlated rather than being temporally incidental.

    What is consistent is that I am arguing what is factual and what is not. I do support gun rights and I support ccw, but I prefer to deal with the facts as they are, without letting personal ideology re guns/gun laws dictate that understanding.

    Liberals have said more guns and more liberalized laws equals more crime, that does not seem to be the case, for the most part.

    Conservatives have said more guns and more liberalized laws equals less crime, that doesn't seem to be the case either.
  6. MichaelJoeWilliamson
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    MichaelJoeWilliamson Well-Known Member

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  7. asuragator
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    asuragator Well-Known Member

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    Thanks. At 46 pages long, it's too much to digest right now. But my first blush impressions are that:

    I very much appreciate the tone and manner in which approaches this blog post. Author uses reason to try to work through the issues, which is not so easy with highly charged topics. However, in an attempt to seemingly cover every point of the debate in one blog, he seems to sacrifice quite a bit in terms of depth, and with that I believe there are flaws in his argument that come from trying to do too much. Reason can only take one so far especially when questions call for better empirical data and better analysis.

    In any case, I saved the post for reading at another time.
  8. MichaelJoeWilliamson
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    MichaelJoeWilliamson Well-Known Member

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    Related;

    Can You Spot the Vital Gun Safety Rule Violated at Mayor Bloomberg’s Press Conference on Massive Seizure of Firearms? (There are actually two)


    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
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  9. MichaelJoeWilliamson
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    MichaelJoeWilliamson Well-Known Member

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    Also related

    http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2013/08/point_it_out_knock_it_out_brut.html#incart_m-rpt-2
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  10. fastsix
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    fastsix Well-Known Member

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    There's no glass case over the guns like at a gunshop?
  11. MichaelJoeWilliamson
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    MichaelJoeWilliamson Well-Known Member

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    The guns are pointed at humans. And many of the semiautomatics are not in the open, locked position. It is hard to tell if the cylinders on revolvers are open and locked.
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  12. fastsix
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    fastsix Well-Known Member

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    So just like the gunshop picture I linked to...and a few more to drive home the point how common this is. I guess the state of NY isn't the only one who doesn't know how to display guns...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
  13. GolphinGator
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    http://www.ocala.com/article/20130827/ARTICLES/130829747?tc=cr

    Now that the NYT no longer owns the Ocala and Gainesville papers you may even see a article like this admitting crime like robery of stores has droped again. I am going with the SYG and 1 Million plus concealed permits causing this as well as news of people being shot trying to hold up stores.
  14. MichaelJoeWilliamson
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    MichaelJoeWilliamson Well-Known Member

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    Interesting

    http://hotair.com/archives/2013/08/...ncludes-gun-bans-dont-reduce-the-murder-rate/

    www.law.harvard.edu/students/orgs/jlpp/Vol30_No2_KatesMauseronline.pdf
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  15. fastsix
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    fastsix Well-Known Member

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  16. MichaelJoeWilliamson
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    MichaelJoeWilliamson Well-Known Member

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    I will agree with you about one thing. While I am pretty certain that guns don't make people more violent, I do think that they tend to make violence more deadly. So, without guns, there might indeed be a drop in deaths, but I doubt their absence would impact violence all that much.

    And as you say, it is physically impossible to make all guns disappear, even if it was constitutionally allowed.

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