Just the facts for our gun control members

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by theorangebluewinagain, Aug 10, 2013.

  1. MichaelJoeWilliamson
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    MichaelJoeWilliamson Well-Known Member

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    Look at the map of the evolution of CCP laws that shows when individual states allowed people to publicly carry.

    Open carry has been and remains illegal in most states. Concealed carry was illegal when most of those incidents happened in Texas and other places.

    ergo, if there was a mass shooting in ANY PUBLIC PLACE before CCP laws were implemented, then it happened in a gun free zone.

    You apparently missed the very extensive conversation we had about this a few months ago. If I can find it, I will link it
  2. MichaelJoeWilliamson
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    MichaelJoeWilliamson Well-Known Member

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    UPDATE

    The thread was pruned. I seem to remember that philnotfil and I participated in most of the discussions. They revolved around the Texas restaurant shooting. CCP laws had not yet been enacted in Texas at the time. In fact, a woman that owned a gun and (I think) kept it in her car said she would have had the gun in her purse, had it been legal to do so. That incident apparently led Texas to loosen up their CCP laws.
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  3. helix139
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    helix139 Premium Member

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    If I remember right, that woman went on to become a congresswoman or governor or something
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  4. whitelakegator
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    whitelakegator New Member

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    Global warming?

    I find it hilarious that many in one thread totally dismiss certain evidence then walk into this thread and do the exact same thing they did opposite in the other thread.

    F-ing hilarious. Wow. You can almost read each poster's agenda at the bottom of each post.
  5. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    Touche. I don't think that the two are completely analogous for several reasons, but I appreciate the analogy that you've drawn between single factor influences and "natural" long-term trends.
  6. asuragator
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    asuragator Well-Known Member

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    Not sure I follow the analogy. Old's 400 year crime claim is not really a reliable fact since we didn't start keeping good crime stats until the 20th century.

    But beyond that, not all evidence is equally valid, so I am curious as to what evidence you believe is being dismissed?
  7. whitelakegator
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    whitelakegator New Member

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    Sorry it got lost on you. I was specifically talking about the graph where it showed the increase in CO2 and temp. Then in this thread you had the graphs with the increase in guns and decrease in crime. In each thread those with opposing views dismissed the graphs. I thought it was ironic and funny.
  8. asuragator
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    asuragator Well-Known Member

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    Got it. Not really equivalent but I can see what you mean.
  9. oragator1
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    oragator1 Premium Member

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    Not sure what post of mine you are referring to as I don't recall discounting any graphs or evidence, but I do believe MMGW to at least some degree is real, so if accepting science's prevailing view on both is hypocritical or having an agenda, then so be it.

    By the way, this was the chart I was referring to last night, it's not a minor shift, it's major. There is a similar trend in Europe which goes back even further (2nd graph).

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
  10. rivergator
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    rivergator Well-Known Member

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    the most recent was 7 people killed in South Florida. Florida doesn't ban people from carrying guns. The white supremacist who shot and a bunch of people at the Sikh temple, Wisconsin doesn't prohibit guns. The health spa in Georgia ....
  11. asuragator
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    asuragator Well-Known Member

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    Yep, river, bizarrely false indeed. Below are some mass shootings since 1999, all of which happened after liberalized ccw laws were instituted in their respective states:

    1999 Texas: Wedgewood Baptist Church, 8 dead/7 injured
    2003 Miss.: Lockheed Martin, 7 dead/8 injured
    2007 Nebraska: Westroads Mall, 9 dead/4 injured
    2008 Kentucky: Atlantis Plants Factory, 6 dead/1 injured
    2008 Mizzou: Kirkwood City Hal, 6 dead/2 injured
    2009 North Carolina: Carthage Nursing Home, 8 dead/3 injured
    2011 Nevada: IHOP, 5 dead/7 injured
    2012 Colorado: Aurora Movie Theater, 12 dead/70 injured
    2012 Minnesota: Accent Signatures, 5 dead/7 injured
    (Doesn’t include VT, Newtown CT, Postal/Fed facilities, or Texas Army Base mass shootings)

    A little aside to this whole thing, I was reading this story yesterday morning and happened to come across the sad nugget relating to an open carry incident in VA:

  12. asuragator
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    asuragator Well-Known Member

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    Let's set aside the political nonsense for a moment. You and I actually agree more on gun laws than you seem willing to realize. Your hypothesis is plausible but it is only a hypothesis b/c the relationship is unmeasured. But there is more to this story since there are a number of assumptions/issues that would need to be addressed for CCW to have had any effect on crime rates. For example:

    Uneven Timing. Of all the states passing shall issue laws from the 1970s/80s to now, eight (16%) passed them seven or more years prior to national crime rates starting to decline and twenty (40%) nearly a decade after crime started to decline. Many northeastern states and CA still have more restrictive "may issue" CCW laws, yet some of the largest metro areas in these states saw some of the largest declines in crime in the 90s/00s.

    Decay effect. Policy effects often decay over time (think 'Scared Straight').

    Lag effect. Policy effects can sometimes take time to emerge. Just b/c liberalized CCW become law, it might take time before a enough people get permits for the effect to occur (e.g. "tipping point" or "critical mass").

    Gun Carry/CCW Gap: Gap between No. regularly carrying and No. of CCW permits granted in a state might be vast.

    Lack of Uniformity. CCW laws do not necessarily have the same effect on each state. Different pop demographics, different issuance rates of CCW permits, etc...and states do not contribute to national crime rates equally.

    Which Crimes? Must be specific about which crimes would/could be deterred by CCW. Is it murder? Burglary etc...?

    Crime Hot Spots. Homicides, robberies, and agg. assaults are disproportionately concentrated in "hotspots" which are disproportionately located in/around some urban communities. Crime/victimization also linked to routine activities of life.

    Other factors. Receding crack cocaine turf wars, increased policing, increased imprisonment, changing demographics, decreasing teen pregnancy rates etc... must be controlled.
  13. MichaelJoeWilliamson
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    MichaelJoeWilliamson Well-Known Member

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    Are you certain that the Sikh Temple and the Ga Health spa allowed guns? Property owners have the right to declare their property to be gun free. In fact, the theater in the Colorado shooting was a declared gun free zone, even though Colorado laws allows concealed guns in theaters.
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  14. MichaelJoeWilliamson
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    MichaelJoeWilliamson Well-Known Member

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    These are all very nice sources of information. Thanks for sharing them. That said, many seem to be presented to counter a claim that liberalization of gun laws have caused the decrease in crime. I do not understand why you seem to keep blowing that horn, as I never claimed that.

    Let me say this again; liberals claimed that liberalizing gun laws would lead to increases in crime. That did not happen. Just the opposite happened. So they were wrong. Period.
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  15. MichaelJoeWilliamson
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    MichaelJoeWilliamson Well-Known Member

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    BTW, just for grins; I did a bit of statistical math. I used a

    [​IMG]

    My dependent variable was violent crimes per capita from 1996 to 2011. One dependent variable of guns per person showed a negatively correlated R squared value of .896. The other dependent variable I used was the # of states with MUST CARRY CCP laws. That showed an R squared negative correlation of .707

    The first correlation is very strong. The second not as much, but not insignificant either. This should end the silly negative correlation argument.
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  16. mdgator05
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    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    So why do you think that the percentage of households with guns are significantly positively associated with violent crime while the total number of guns per person are significantly negatively associated with crime?
  17. MichaelJoeWilliamson
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    MichaelJoeWilliamson Well-Known Member

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    Here is what a graph looks like. I adjusted the scaling so the chart would make sense. For example, the FBI data generally looks a crime rate per 100,000 people. I went up to rate per million so that number did not dominate the graph. Plus, I multiplied the guns per person by 100, so it would make graphical sense too.

    [​IMG]
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  18. MichaelJoeWilliamson
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    MichaelJoeWilliamson Well-Known Member

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    Not sure. Do you have an opinion?
  19. mdgator05
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    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Honestly, I am not sure either. If there is a causal relationship, I would think that the marginal households that might buy a gun or might not are the most dangerous households to own guns. There could be an issue with them not keeping track of guns as well as collectors or true gun enthusiasts. This would suggest that laws should be setup not to discourage collecting but to ensure safe ownership, such that many marginal households might opt out of owning guns (ie. safety classes, licensing fees, annual tests, etc.).
  20. MichaelJoeWilliamson
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    MichaelJoeWilliamson Well-Known Member

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    Interesting. You seem to be assigning causality to the # of households with guns and violent crime, yet assign none to guns per person or # states enacting MUST ISSUE CCP laws and violent crime. Even though the latter two have a much stronger correlation with crime than the first.

    If that is not what you are doing, then I apologize.
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