Just the facts for our gun control members

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by theorangebluewinagain, Aug 10, 2013.

  1. asuragator
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    asuragator Well-Known Member

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    You mistakenly claim a cause and effect relationship for two temporally related events without accounting for any number of other variables. The op doesn't provide evidence for any cause and effect determination.
  2. GolphinGator
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    GolphinGator Well-Known Member

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    It could be done but not politically correct.:grin:
  3. VAg8r1
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    VAg8r1 Well-Known Member

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    So you want the facts. While the total number of firearms sold has increased, the percentage of households owning firearms has actually been declining for decades.
    [​IMG]
    NY Times
  4. MichaelJoeWilliamson
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    MichaelJoeWilliamson Well-Known Member

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    o rly?

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
  5. rivergator
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    rivergator Well-Known Member

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    number of guns sold and number of households with guns are not the same thing.

    I think in previous threads it was shown that fewer households have guns, but there's a certain percentage who have a lot more than people used to.
  6. asuragator
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    asuragator Well-Known Member

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    huh?

    Poverty is at the core of crime rate differences operating often directly and indirectly. But the poverty-crime relationship is moderated by population density/size, and by other factors such as education, percent juvenile males (in a community)/age, and even single female headed households.

    Urban areas present much more opportunity than rural areas (for obvious reasons) for many types of crime, and even for crime just to come to the attention of police.
  7. wygator
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    wygator Well-Known Member

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    Each of their stats is sourced at the bottom of the graphic. Please let us know if they misrepresented anything. They even provided the 43% of homes figure from Gallup.

    For those noting the decline in percent of homes with guns, on volatile national issues, some people answering polls may lie. I think this is a question that, in light of national tension on the topic, may elicit a no response from some people who actually have guns in the home. No way to prove this, but with the dramatic increase in gun purchases, I wouldn't be surprised if this is true...especially among first time gun buyers.
  8. ironhead1
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    ironhead1 Well-Known Member

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    I agree with this.
    In fact, I was polled and asked whether I supported gun ownership.
    I answered yes.
    I was then asked if I had guns in my home.
    I answered no.

    I will not say whether or not I do have guns in my home but suffice to say, I would never answer a poll regarding something that is none of anyone's business.
  9. asuragator
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    asuragator Well-Known Member

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    There is certainly a likelihood of some deception. But I think the question is whether the "true" increase in legal gun ownership has had any real causal or even correlative effect on decreasing gun crime trends...as is suggested by the op link?
  10. MichaelJoeWilliamson
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    MichaelJoeWilliamson Well-Known Member

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    This change in requirements is curious.

    When gun laws were being liberalized across the nation, liberals insisted doing so would lead to blood baths. That gun violence would skyrocket and our children would die in every increasing numbers. I think the trend of liberalizing gun laws started in the late 80s and early 90s. To the point that many states have "must issue" laws pertaining to CCP and many states have changed laws to gradually reduce the numbers and types of places where guns are prohibited

    Not only did gun violence and death not increased as a result of all these changes in gun laws, but just the opposite happened. Gun violence is down. Crime is down. Violence of all kinds is down.

    Now, when supporters of gun right point out that in spite of ever increasing guns per person, violence of all kinds has declined, liberals now n loudly proclaim; "Well, you can't say it is causal!"

    This, my friends, is called moving the goal posts.
  11. OB1
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    OB1 Active Member

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    You might want to check out the actual poll by Gallup that I posted in post #6 of this thread. It shows that ownership is on the rise in all demographics, and is at it's highest since the early '90s. That would be women, men, dems, and pubs. Do you really think the household numbers aren't doing the same?

    Sent by ANDROID peanut butter fudge using Gator Country
  12. asuragator
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    asuragator Well-Known Member

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    Temporally coincidental trends are not in themselves evidence of causality or even correlation. I know you are big on cause and effect (think your comments on agw), so forgive me for finding it a bit disingenuous that you now try to do an end around my comment by not actually addressing whether it is causal or not. And to borrow your line...that, MJW, is called deflection. :)

    But really you shouldn't lump me in simply because you know my general political leanings, especially considering my views on guns don't necessarily align with the left--not to mention that I have been on record for years including on TH opposing most gun control measures. And ftr, there is plenty of misinformation and misunderstanding coming from both sides of the political aisle.
  13. surfn1080
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    surfn1080 Well-Known Member

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    You libs are funny. Even when the supporting numbers are against your claims you still fight against anything you do not believe in.

    When my wife and I get into an arguement, i generally will acknowledge when i am wrong. My wife on the other hand who is not really politically involved but has a liberal (though she is a christian and has thinks she is a libertarian...) way of thinking, never admits she is wrong.

    I personally think its because i am less emotional and try to reason where she is more of emotional than i am and will tend to make responses off those or react based off them.
  14. fastsix
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    fastsix Well-Known Member

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    You think it's because the gang members in those cities vote Democratic? Because I would have guess poverty played a far bigger role than politics. Rather than eliminate entire cities, just eliminate the poorer parts of those cities and I bet gun crime drops significantly...even if the rest of the city continues to be liberal.
  15. asuragator
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    asuragator Well-Known Member

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    who are these 'libbies' you speak of?
  16. MichaelJoeWilliamson
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    MichaelJoeWilliamson Well-Known Member

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    I do not profess to know whether the twin facts of increasing gun ownership and declining violence is causal or not. But they are certainly inversely correlated.

    There is indeed disingenuous behavior. It comes from those that ignore such data. And when called on it, deflect by calling others disingenuous for pointing it out. Much in the same way that when discussing climate science, they deflect from actual scientific measurement and data, all the while screaming that we must "do something."

    When one posts about lack of support for gun control, yet all the while calling into question the obvious negative correlation between increasing gun ownership coupled with decreasing violence, it is a bit like a wolf in sheep's clothing. That is; an attempt to cover the true nature of the underlying behavior. Disingenuous indeed.
  17. mdgator05
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    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    If you use your data from the Gallup charts, and crime stats data for Murder rates and overall violent crime rates from http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm, you find that:

    The gun ownership rates from 1961-2011 are unrelated to violent crime rates (T-stat of -0.01, meaning absolutely no relationship). Gun ownership rates are positively related to homicide rates at 90% (T-stat= 2.01, P-Value=0.06).

    Using the data from the other chart from 1991-present, gun ownership rates are positively related to both violent crime rates and homicide rates at the 95% level (T-stats of 3.27 and 3.99).

    Using correlations and the data from 1961, it shows a correlation between gun ownership rates and violent crime of -0.003, which is essentially 0 and a correlation between gun ownership rates and Murder rates of 0.45, which is almost as strong as the correlation between murder rates and violent crime rates (0.55).

    Using the data from 1991, the correlation between gun ownership and violent crime rates are 0.69 and the correlation between gun ownership and murder rates is 0.76.

    So if there is a causal relationship, the stats would actually tend to point to a relationship indicating that higher gun ownership rates lead to higher violent crime and homicide rates. You should really run the numbers before claiming a correlation to certainty.
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  18. asuragator
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    asuragator Well-Known Member

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    Let me acknowledge mdgator's analysis above for addressing my question; his analysis would suggest that there is not even a correlation. In other words, it could just be that one is going up and one is going down independent of each other.

    "It's an obvious negative correlation" you say. Well no it's not. Correlation, like causation has to be measured. Eyeballing two trends is not evidence of correlation. You should know better than that.

    But "who" is ignoring the data and "who"is posting about the lack of support for gun control?
  19. DeanMeadGator
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    DeanMeadGator '63 Gator VIP Member

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    I liked Joe Biden's odd "advice" on how to protect yourself. Where has Joe been of late?
  20. MichaelJoeWilliamson
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    MichaelJoeWilliamson Well-Known Member

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    I am not going to try and reproduce your math. Or to further cherry pick your stats. That said, you leave out gun ownership per person in your analysis. And most important of all, you leave out a study of the impact of changing gun laws and violent crimes. Several of those have been done.

    But other than that, it was a great effort.

    Oh...wait...it was NOT a great effort. Rather pathetic, actually.

    BTW, here are some pretty good visual indicators of the matter;

    [​IMG]

    http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2013/05/07/gun-homicide-rate-down-49-since-1993-peak-public-unaware/

    [​IMG]

    Violent Crime rate in the USA (per100k)

    1992-757.7
    2011- 383.3

    It has gone down nearly every single year. And when were gun laws liberalized? That started happening in the late 80s and early 90s.

    Try and do a bit better next time.

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