Is MAD Enough?

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by gatorchamps0607, Mar 21, 2014.

  1. MichiGator2002
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    MichiGator2002 VIP Member

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    Exactly, exactly, exactly. The doctrine only works if there is "assurance", it is even right there is the name. Would someone with this administration as a geopolitical or military adversary sincerely believe that it would meet a first strike detection with a response in kind? Or would they be convinced enough in liberal fatalism that they would place a nuclear bet that we would just close our eyes and think of England?

    The problem isn't that MAD doesn't or wouldn't work, it is that is an open question whether there is MAD right now between the US and other nuclear states. Without it, we only have the typical geopolitical and economic factors that prevent war in general. Right now, Russia has no upside in a first strike attack, we still dole out money to them, for instance (half of every dollar we give to Ukraine, even, will by law end up in Russia, as if our "response" to Putin is to give him a raise in his allowance).
  2. wgbgator
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    wgbgator Sub-optimal Poster Premium Member

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    MAD seems less a doctrine and more like an explanation of why no one has nuked each other.
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  3. tegator80
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    tegator80 Well-Known Member

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    I agree but it only works when both sides get it. That is why there is the Red Phone. The other side needs to make sure that they aren't playing "catch-up."
  4. wgbgator
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    wgbgator Sub-optimal Poster Premium Member

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    I don't necessarily think you have to get "MAD" as a concept to understand self-preservation.
  5. MichiGator2002
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    MichiGator2002 VIP Member

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    These aren't mutually exclusive. You make it sound like an accident; you really don't think that MAD was an very well understood policy principle during the Cold War, not just underwriting US/Soviet relations but also broader NATO/Warsaw Pact? Wasn't an accident, wasn't something we suddenly realized in the early 90s, oh look at that, guess that is why we didn't have nuclear war -- it was state policy by the US and USSR for decades. That's why all the nuclear testing with bigger and nastier devices.
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  6. wgbgator
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    wgbgator Sub-optimal Poster Premium Member

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    I agree, my aim was to clarify that the state of MAD existed before MAD existed as a concept.
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  7. vertigo0923
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    vertigo0923 night owl mod VIP Member

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    nice input there, mulder.

    ;)
  8. gatorev12
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    gatorev12 Well-Known Member

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    Why are you only wanting to limit it to the last 50 years? Nation-states have been around for centuries before that in various forms, including strong, centralized nation-states similar to what we see today.

    If you get the wrong people in power, human history's taught us one thing: anything can happen.
  9. Gatorrick22
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    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

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    Lol... Mulder? He's the pragmatic one of the two.
  10. vertigo0923
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    vertigo0923 night owl mod VIP Member

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    nope. mulder was the one who always believed in the waaay out stuff. scully, the doctor, was the one who was the cynic

    and even if that weren't true, i'd hate to call you 'scully' being as she was female, lol

    i sure did like looking at david duchovny as mulder, though. mmmmMMMMmmmm
  11. Gatorrick22
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    Gatorrick22 Well-Known Member

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    He... I... led you to believe that... I didn't mean to lead you on.... :D
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  12. wgbgator
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    wgbgator Sub-optimal Poster Premium Member

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    Where did you get 50 years? The 30 Years War was in 1648. When you said "nation-state" that is relatively recent concept, but that gives you several hundred years to find a specific example.
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  13. DaveFla
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    DaveFla Well-Known Member

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    Unfortunately, the two are not necessarily mutually exclusive...

    I could see Iran launching a nuke very easily.
  14. gatorev12
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    gatorev12 Well-Known Member

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    My bad--I must have read that extremely fast and had a completely inexcusable brain fart. o_O

    One good example of a nation bordering on near-suicidal behavior is the Paraguayan War from 1864-1870. Paraguay's leader attacked Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay; and then refused to surrender, continuing to fight on looong after the conflict was decided. Paraguay lost up to 90% of their pre-war population and was completely devastated.

    That's the best example I can think of at halftime of the Gator game--but after the game, I'll try and add a few more examples if you'd like.
  15. gatorchamps0607
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    gatorchamps0607 Always Rasta

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    How many Nukes does Iran have though? Im confident we can stop Nukes from nations that only have a couple but with Russia, they can just send everything and say bye bye US and later, the world.

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