Is MAD Enough?

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by gatorchamps0607, Mar 21, 2014.

  1. Bushmaster
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    Bushmaster Well-Known Member

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    Anyone who thinks Putin is irrational ala Kim Jong Il is seriously wrong. Putin is a cold calculating SOB. He wouldn't have gotten where he did otherwise.

    Kim Jong Il wore pajamas everywhere. His son I don't see quite as crazy.

    I also don't buy Iran doing anything with respect to Israel. The jews have nukes, which is a game changer.

    I honestly think we have seen the last of a nuke going off on this planet unless some muslim nut job whacko homocide bomber gets a hold of a tactical nuke. A government setting one off is not going to happen. These leaders care way too much about self preservation. If Iran drops a nuke on Israel, the entire world would be on their ass. The US would surely drop a few on Iran if for nothing else target practice.
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  2. wgbgator
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    wgbgator Sub-optimal Poster Premium Member

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    What is your basis for claiming that Hitler, Stalin, et al lacked "rational thought" while current regimes in NK and Iran do? With what criteria are you distinguishing between "rational" and irrational?"
  3. 92gator
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    92gator Well-Known Member

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    ^^^concur re. Putin and KJI;

    Really don't care one way or the other re. Iran;

    ...but man, I have to disagree with that last bit about "having seen the last nuke going off". I certainly hope you're right--but, I just don't believe it. We're talking like almost 100,000 nuclear missiles between Russia and US, and more and more countries getting nuclear weapon capability with passage of time.

    Seems like it really is just a matter of time before something gives.
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2014
  4. Bushmaster
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    Bushmaster Well-Known Member

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    Hitler and Stalin, in the pre nuke era, thought they would win.

    NK and Iran both know if they drop a nuke the US, and probably Russia and China, would start target practice over the air of Iran and NK.

    And the world would support that action.

    Dropping a nuke is a lose/lose situation unless it is in response to someone dropping on you.
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  5. 92gator
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    92gator Well-Known Member

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    What is your basis for claiming that I think NK and Iran do have rational thought now?

    I prefaced that with accepting your premise in that regard.

    NOTE: neither do I necessarily think that NK and Iran actually lack 'rational thought' now; that's frankly besides the point, as neither has MAD nuclear capability NOW.

    The point is, they can develop the capability....and have irrational dictators--down the road.

    ...and an 'irrational dictator' can nullify the effectiveness of MAD (if their irrationality comprimsed their ability to appreciate their own nation's MAD vulnerability).
  6. Bushmaster
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    I don't see a foreign government sanctioning dropping a nuke. A terrorist organization yes.
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  7. wgbgator
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    wgbgator Sub-optimal Poster Premium Member

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    I'm just asking on what basis are you making judgements between "rational" and "non-rational?" Whether you agree with my premise or not, you should be able to explain the criteria by which you can make objective judgements on who is rational and who isnt, if we can make such distinctions.
  8. 92gator
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    92gator Well-Known Member

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    A foreign govm't, under ordinary circumstances, certainly seems unlikely.

    However, a foreign government, under a dictatorship--changes the calculus significantly. Because now you're not talking about a bunch of minds processing ideas; you're talking about the whims of a narcissist; sometimes a sociopathic and/or disillusional narcissist.
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  9. 92gator
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    92gator Well-Known Member

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    Hitler was straight up batsh*t. Stalin was socipathic. Kim Jong Il was delusional. So was Hussein. All were narcissists.

    None of them, imo, had the rational thought capacity, sufficient to rely on MAD--that is, for us to rely on their own conscious concern for their own--and their nation's own--survival, as being a meaningful deterrent from 'going nuclear'.
  10. Bushmaster
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    To the contrary 92, all of the above were crazy, but you have to have a great amount of goodwill in this world to drop a nuke.

    Not everyone in NK, Germany, Russia is crazy enough to go along with something stupid.

    Let's say Iran wants to drop a nuke on Israel. I don't think everyone in Iran would go along with that even if their leader is crazy. It still takes someone at ground zero to launch these things. There isn't a bat button on the POTUS desk that he pushes when he gets ready. Even the suitcase that follows 0bama around can't launch a nuke.
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  11. wgbgator
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    wgbgator Sub-optimal Poster Premium Member

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    Isnt using your opinion to determine these things with no formal logic or reasoning make that judgement irrational?
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  12. 92gator
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    92gator Well-Known Member

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    Absolutely. Yes, it would....

    IF anyone ever suggested using MY OPINION to determine these things, I'd be the first to say--'they're batsh*t'.

    However, my opinion serves a the basis for my posts, on a message board--which is what was conveyed with the 'imo'; not the suggestion that 'my opinion' should be the metric for when MAD may or oughtn't be relied on.

    ;)
  13. CHFG8R
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    CHFG8R Premium Member

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    Not to mention, Iran is not a dictatorship and it would take something pretty major (war, catastrophe, etc.) to make that happen. Plus, the revolutionaries are not so revolutionary anymore. After years of political power, they're too fat and happy to rock the boat too much.
  14. 92gator
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    92gator Well-Known Member

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    Let me address it this way:

    Not everyone in NK, Germany, Russia is crazy enough to go along with something stupid.

    Perhaps not everyone; but how about enough people, in Germany, UNDER HITLER?



    Not everyone in NK, Germany, Russia is crazy enough to go along with something stupid.

    How about enough people... under Stalin?

    (As for NK--they've never reached the point of having power sufficient to even compare to MAD power, so it would require further assumptions).

    That's part of the premise--if we're talking M.A.D., we are naturally presuming MAD capability.

    ...which would entail the 'street cred' (or 'good will', if you prefer) to which you refer.

    NK and Iran are easy enough to ostracize, now, no matter who's in charge--because they haven't achieved MAD capability.

    What about China? What if, all this time, they've been amassing MAD capability, and managed to keep us and the world in the dark about it? What if China then fell under a Kim Jong Il type?

    Still feel comfortable about the effectiveness of MAD?

    That is, do you still like your chances, when your relying on M.A.D. as a deterrent from nuclear war?
  15. wgbgator
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    wgbgator Sub-optimal Poster Premium Member

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    Well, I asked you for a metric, and that's the one you gave. Seems like if we are to distinguish between rational and irrational actors, we need to have something other than a gut judgement call to avoid making an irrational decision ourselves.
  16. 92gator
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    92gator Well-Known Member

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    Gotcha'.

    No readily ascertainable objective criteria really comes to mind. It's not like we'd get to make a judgment about who we get to trust anyway; my point is simply recognizing the inherent danger of trusting the rationality dependent system of MAD vis a vis a madman; and therefore the virtue of being as diligent as possible about restricting nuclear capability to as few as possible, for as long as possible--a principle that seems to be getting compromised at at the altar of political correctness, or under the auspices of diplomacy.
  17. wgbgator
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    wgbgator Sub-optimal Poster Premium Member

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    As I general rule, I'd say that if you can reasonably predict the actions of someone in a given situation, it matters not whether that person is "rational" or "irrational." You dont need to make the judgement. A real "mad man" is someone who you couldnt predict their actions at all. But I'm not sure how many world leaders actually fit that mold. Paranoia isnt exactly insanity, especially since its probably coming from a position of self-preservation, which wouldnt negate the MAD idea.
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  18. Bushmaster
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    Bushmaster Well-Known Member

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  19. tegator80
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    I will take it one step further. This but...no one sanctions one or EVERYONE uses them.
  20. orangeblueorangeblue
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    orangeblueorangeblue Well-Known Member

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    You're ascribing to me things that I have never said or even intimated. My point was not that MAD could be circumvented, that is true by definition. I have never said that all leaders are acting rationally. I'm not sure why you keep putting those words into my mouth.

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