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Discussion in 'Nuttin' but Net' started by InstiGATOR1, Oct 27, 2013.
UF is 3rd. Hit the link to see them all:
That reminds me to re-up for his site. Cool guy that actually knows stuff and I get to correspond with him on a personal basis several times per season. If you are going to pay for only one source on the Interwebs this should be the place. Um, err, well maybe, being a Gatorcountry Insider, too. ;^)
Ken loves Billy Donovan's style. Ken Pom is easily the most knowledgable basketball guy I follow (with up there with Glockner) and he is starting to get more acclaim for his work.
I am not sure how one figures out what Pomeroy loves or does not love. His system ranks UF pretty highly, but his system like all system is based on data not love.
His system tends to overrate slow teams. Note our projected pace. That's why Wisconsin always rates highly.
Obviously. His system's criteria ranks UF higher than most other's because Donovan almost always has highly efficient teams on offense and defense. Donovan's system fits in well with what Pomroy weights the heaviest.
Yep, was just about to add that, actually.
Don't know if this is what he was referring to or not, but I've heard Pomroy speak glowingly of recent Florida teams and of Billy Donovan when a guest on radio shows.
I'm not sure that this is actually what's happening here. Indeed, his formula consistently ranks Wisconsin 10-15 spots ahead of where they should be based on wins/losses, but I'm not sure that it is the slow pace that brings them there.
KenPom explains that Wisconsin's SOS is part of the issue: "Wisconsin is perhaps the biggest outlier ever in my system. And it’s only going to get worse, because they are going to lose more games and not drop very far because most of the teams they play the rest of the season are very good."
Blogger Hagrin bases the issue partly off of Wisonsin's ability to win at home: "Wisconsin, in the past, has always played beyond their talent level at home. Bo Ryan, the Wisconsin coach, had a record of 152-11 (93.3%) at home compared to an overall record of 242-91 (72.7%). That means, doing some quick math, Wisconsin is 90-80 on the road which is basically a few games within a margin of error of being a .500 team."
Dan Hanner suggests that that Wisconsin's high ratings comes from their lopsided blowouts of inferior teams: "Wisconsin has absolutely been pummeling bad teams this year. Even counting the home loss to Iowa, Wisconsin has absolutely been running up the score on the little guys. (I’d say it is bad sportsmanship, except that at Wisconsin’s slow pace, it doesn’t look like it.) And since Ken’s rankings are primarily derived from margin-of-victory, that causes his rankings to love Wisconsin."
In the end, I'm not sure that Wisconsin's high rating is a result of overvaluing slow pace, as much as it is overvaluing high margin of victory over poor teams and closer losses to good teams. At least when trying to predict Wisconsin's record. This might actually apply to 2013 Florida very nicely, as well.
And for whatever it's worth, TeamRankings also has Florida as a preseason #3 and predicts the same end of season record.
We kind of caused Ken Pom's system to go a little tilt last year; because we spent most of the season eviscerating teams (including some fairly well-regarded opponents), losing very close games to decent schools and putting up some insane efficiency rankings on both sides of the ball as a result, we looked rather extraordinary in these rankings. I think we were one of the highest-rated teams ever at some point.
I did not see until now that you could click a link at the top of his page for an explanation of what he does to get preseason rankings. Here is an excerpt:
Click this link for the rest:
It was not UF as much as it was the top 4 or top 8 programs who his system found to be much better than in many past years. Thus he projected a somewhat chalky NCAA tourney.
If it's the blowouts that are overrating teams, that will be fixed somewhat this year by his system. We'll see. I expect us to be better this year, though.
Here is a blog post comparing Pomeroy's and Hanner's 2013-14 projections:
All of these ratings, are, of course, necessarily flawed, because they are based strictly on numerical factors, which are necessarily limited and don't take into account, except incidentally, factors such as team chemistry, and "hotness/coldness."
However, my experience tells me that Pomeroy's ratings are generally pretty good.
Chemistry exists and he does take that into account in his preseason ratings by factoring years the players have been there, but afterwards it's based purely on what they actually do on the court where again, it shows up in the numbers.
Hotness/coldness is mainly a mythological construct. Someone has to win 6 games in a row in the tournament.