IMO Florida has the talent to win a National Championship in the next two years

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by GATORAZ, Aug 21, 2013.

  1. garygator
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    garygator Active Member

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    For the first time (truly the first time) in over 40 years, my expectation for the season is well below the consensus. I am probably just becoming a grumpy old man, but I cannot get over my lack of confidence in the QB play, as well as the fact that it has been years since we put a good offense on the field. I do believe 11-1 was a product of very good fortune. I so hope I am wrong.
  2. mdfgator
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    mdfgator Well-Known Member

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    Jeff has first round talent, I am not sure why people doubt him, go watch the am game, when the line was working he was quite good
  3. qwghlmgator
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    qwghlmgator Well-Known Member

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    LOL and SMH at you "luck" guys. You just want an excuse to hate on the team because that's what you guys do. You use the "we got lucky" argument becuase it's pure conjecture and solely argumentative. It contains not a whiff of insight and is patently ridiculous in the best of circumstances.

    I'll give you an example: you guys are harping on the ULL game because we got "lucky" to block a punt to win the game (ignoring the fact that the team was coached to be good at blocking punts) while ignoring the anti-luck of losing our starting QB earlier in the game. How could we be "lucky" to win a game where we lost our QB??

    If that kind of luck indicates that your team sucks, then the 1992 Bama team must be one of the worst teams of all time (please ignore their national championship trophy and Sugar Bowl victory over a supposedly dominant Miami team that won without luck). Oh, and take away their 2009 trophy, too, because they got "lucky" that UT lost Colt McCoy.

    And give back our 1996 and 2006 trophies because of James Brown and Jarvis Moss.
  4. rserina
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    rserina VIP Member

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    On the bowl game, I think it is very hard to extrapolate much of anything from bowl season. Bowls are one of the few times all season when fans from across the country see you play and in conjunction with being the last game of the season they leave a lasting impression, but in that they are effectively like March Madness: completely independent of what happened over the course of a season. There is no continuity between the CFB regular season and bowl season. Two different animals together. How many games do you play on 3-4 weeks rest? How many games do staffs have 3-4 weeks to prepare, tweak lineups or strategy, install new plays or new coverages? How many games are after exams and during school breaks? How many games do you play against teams whose players you are largely unfamiliar with because you haven't scouted them in the past or recruited many of them? How many games do you play in neutral venues or in front of mixed crowds? As is the case for the Sugar, how many games do you play indoors?

    Any coach will maintain that football is a game of routine and, when you have such a drastically different routine in place as you do a bowl game, the results can vary dramatically. Just looking back at our own recent history, there is no way we were 27 points better than Ohio State in 2006 or had such a dominant defense that we could hold them to less than 100 yards. There is no way Michigan was a better team than us the following year or that the Oklahoma defense should have been as effective against us as they were in 2008, or even that we should have been as good against them in the same game.

    So I don't see how anyone can look to a bowl game and consider it representative of an entire season, let alone make any correlation between that and what they expect to happen the next year. They are largely unrelated in both directions.
  5. socraticsilence
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    socraticsilence New Member

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    I think all seasons exist along bell curve and while weren't crazy lucky we definitely exceeded (in terms of record) what last years team played too, turnover margin is something that regresses to the mean it just does, well pass more this season and probably turn it over a bit more, we likely don't force as many turnovers either, I think we'll score enough to make up for the loss in turnover margin but that's debatable- put it this way 2001 was a two loss team as well and if they played last year's team on a neutral field they'd be a 7.5-8 point favorite and you know it.
  6. socraticsilence
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    socraticsilence New Member

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    Every season needs luck, the difference between 2006 and 2012, is that in 2006 we had a good but not great offense so we could make some mistakes and still win, in 2012 we were a massively one dimensional like the teams we ranked around in offense- Georgia Tech, Navy, etc.
  7. socraticsilence
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    socraticsilence New Member

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    With 8 yes, with 4 I'm worried they try and rig it so the SEC can't get more than 1 team in.
  8. socraticsilence
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    socraticsilence New Member

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    This- we played with fire against inferior teams all year long and eventually we got burnt because one of those teams we thought we could roll out the "C" game against had a much better QB than ours (top 5 nationally) and he just kept hitting us instead of starting strong and fading.
  9. rserina
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    rserina VIP Member

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    We also had a senior 5* quarterback in his fourth year as a starter and the same offensive coordinator as in the previous season, not to mention a ton of experience and talent at receiver between Baker, Caldwell, Cornelius, and Harvin. The point of course is that the margins of victory were still no greater, we still struggled during the same stretch of the season, and we still ended up with the same regular season record.
  10. AmbroseGator
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    AmbroseGator Active Member

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    There's no hate on my end. Just an acknowledgement that luck--or a different name if you prefer--is simply part of the game. You can prepare for these special circumstances. When they arrive you can try to make the most of them. But balls bounce funny, funny ways and there is always an element outside of control, despite skill and preparation.

    It doesn't denigrate a team or a win to appreciate the fact that in a game where so much went poorly, we were in a position to pull off a remarkable and memorable end in our favor. They absolutely had to execute and were apparently prepared and skilled to do so. But we've been a terrific punt blocking team for several years now and this is the first time I can recall a game ending in our favor this way. With as poorly as the game had gone, who at 3:00 minutes left in the game and us down by a touchdown anticipated a long pass and quick TD to tie the game, then still having enough time on the clock that ULL couldn't eat up completely, then a punt block that bounces in such a way that Jelani can actually field it, and then make a terrific 36 yard return for the game winning TD with 2 seconds left. All against a rent-a-patsy team everyone expected to blow out who had shockingly pushed us to the very limit.

    It was an amazing end to a very frustrating game. And however skilled and prepared our punt block unit was (very), and however good our linebacker was with the ball in his hands (very), to have all of those circumstances fall perfectly in to place that they could then use that skill to take advantage of and avoid a very dicey OT, all that was...what exactly? I'd ask that you forgive some of us who don't have a better description than "luck."
  11. ThePlayer
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    ThePlayer VIP Member

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    Hate to shoot the messenger, but when Trent Dilfer critiques any quarterback I find it interesting.
    If he evaluated his own NFL career honestly he'd give himself failing grades with almost every team.
    Bill Tobin had it right, 'who the hell is Mel Kiper?'
    A better question: Who the hell is Trent Dilfer?
    Answer: A journeyman QB with a marginal career.

    Judging by the tape, Grier clearly throws the deep ball better than JD does.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvxHwkmOeG8
  12. GatorCrazy11
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    GatorCrazy11 Active Member

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    This luck conversation is getting a little ridiculous and petty, TBH. All I'll say is I basically agree with AZ on all points and think this year's team, or maybe the 2014 squad, will be the signature year(s) at UF for Muschamp to show that this program is back from where Meyer left it in 2010. I also think after this year, Bama could very well dip some and that would provide us an opportunity to regain top-of-the-league status. Obviously, UGA is doing well but since they are such monumental chokers, I have a hard time taking them seriously as national title contenders most years.
  13. indygator
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    indygator VIP Member

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    Again, Ambrose, even without the linebacker running it in for a touchdown, it was a chip shot for Caleb to win the game. So, the odds are very high that, even without the td run, the game does not go into overtime.
  14. rserina
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    rserina VIP Member

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    I don't disagree at all, nor do I understand how the discussion of this team's prospects for the next two season has been reduced to what happened at the end of one game last year. Guess it will result in a shorter season highlights reel.
  15. whitelakegator
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    whitelakegator New Member

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    If we had had won that game in a convincing fashion you would be pimping that win. You know it. I know it. The board knows it. You really do see/hear your own narrative.
  16. gatorbait1
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  17. gatorich
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    gatorich Well-Known Member

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    RAZ,
    I'll answer your question, the score was tied 20-20. The blocked punt / TD couldn't have come at a better time but we didn't have to have it to win the game. Having said that, we did not play good at all in that game.

    As for the "luck" conversation, can anyone name one NC winner that didn't have some luck at sometime during their NC season? Its part of the game but as one of my past coaches used to say "you make your own luck".
  18. rserina
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    rserina VIP Member

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    Did he "pimp" the win over Ohio State the previous year?
  19. mdfgator
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    mdfgator Well-Known Member

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    Ohio st was very mediocre
  20. g8rvet
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    g8rvet Active Member

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    You keep saying that Socrat like it means something. The mean of last year's turnover margin was exactly what it ended up for the year. There is no mean. Last year was the only year that team played-that collection of indivduals created more turnovers than the committed. End of story. That was their turnover margin. If you are talking about individual games, then I would agree. No one else is though. If UF had "regressed to the mean" in TO margin in the USC game and the UGA game, either game could have been different. We probably beat Ga, we may have lost to USC.

    If you are looking at different years and thinking this year's team will "regress to the mean" you are just plain wrong. Different teams are better at turnover margins because of a lot of factors and luck plays a small part in that over the course of the season. Proper technique on O prevents them, better talent and proper technique on D creates them. If you think that is incorrect, I don't think you understand football coaching very well.

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