If Iran gets a nuke, what do they do with it?

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by OklahomaGator, Jan 24, 2014.

  1. CHFG8R

    CHFG8R Premium Member

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    Granted, I'm not in their heads, but IMO it's almost pure geopolitical politics to them. They want a bigger piece of the pie. They want to be seen as the preeminent power in the region (again). They want to be a player on the world stage. I doubt they really have any desire to "rid the world of infidels." More like carve out their own niche in said world instead.

    Not saying they are nice guys, just that their motives are familiar and, that said, gameplanable. I think what they really envision is a revived Persia, but under another name (Iran). While many here are not, they are very aware of the distinctions between themselves and their neighbors historically.
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  2. Lawdog88

    Lawdog88 Well-Known Member

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    You imply they - Iranian head men - like life . . . like the rest of us, and plan geopolitics accordingly. I am not convinced.

    IMO, I think it fair to say that most likely, many, many moderate Iranians probably do value life above death.

    Sadly, however, they do not matter, and they do not have any input into the formulation of Iranian geopolitical policy, nor of how they would like to make a better Iranian life.

    Again, MO.
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  3. CHFG8R

    CHFG8R Premium Member

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    I think that may have been the case 20 years ago, but has changed as they see their worldwide political standing (and subsequent personal power) rise. Again, its still a powerful tool for domestic power, but small potatoes in the grand scheme.

    Again, MO.
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  4. tim85

    tim85 Well-Known Member

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    What's the spade, chomp? I never even mentioned what I thought should be done. In reality, my post had absolutely nothing to do neocons or the far right, but you're so hungry to rant about those dreaded people who dont think the exact same way as you, you didn't even stop to ask yourself whether it was even applicable or not.

    Do you think we can trust Iran to be reasonable, rational, and fair, or fair? If so, what makes you believe so?
  5. gatorev12

    gatorev12 Well-Known Member

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    I'm not saying I trust Pakistan any more with a bomb than I would with Iran. And you're right--a Pakistani nuke is far more likely to fall into a random terrorist's hands than an Iranian weapon would.

    And yet, the Iranian leadership isn't one to scoff at either. You can claim it's all politics if you want, but I am far more skeptical about their intentions and their motives. Their brand of Islam is fairly radical in and of itself.

    Monuments to the Mahdi--special roads built in Iran for his eventual return--millions of dollars being spent by the Iranian government to try and find their messiah around the M.E.--funding scholarly expeditions, public documentaries that they air in prime time slots, etc. I mean, sure, one can view that as playing politics and using religion as an opiate for their people--but that's the best-case, most optimistic scenario. A prudent scenario would be to look at all that and wonder why such an investment makes any rational bit of sense given the state of their economy.
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  6. CHFG8R

    CHFG8R Premium Member

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    I'll defer to you on this. I wasn't aware of the latter. Hate to say it, but it's kinda Hitler-esque, if true.
  7. wgbgator

    wgbgator Sub-optimal Poster Premium Member

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    Sounds more like Scientology. :)
  8. gatorev12

    gatorev12 Well-Known Member

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    I'm not one who's ever advocated a "bomb first, ask questions later" strategy--and am not doing so here either. The best way to deal with Iran is to keep up the sanctions until, hopefully, they say uncle and agree to disband their nuclear program in order to rejoin the international community. Eventually, the strain on their economy WILL be too much to bear--every other country who's suffered under such conditions has eventually caved to world demands or voluntarily chosen crippling poverty (which I don't think the Iranian people would tolerate since there is a pretty large middle class).

    But yes, it is pretty scary: the stuff Iran's leaders have been doing--and it provides a window into their line of thinking. In 2011, they released a movie (aired on Iranian public tv and funded by the Iranian govt) called "The Coming is Near." All in all, not too much different than from what some extreme Christian groups routinely propagate (analyzing all the world upheaval--especially in the Middle East--and saying the world's morality and culture are in decline; that we're seeing the beginning of the "end times" etc)...with the BIG difference being that this isn't some obscure tv documentary on a primarily Christian tv channel, it was funded and broadcast by the Iranian govt. That concerns me.

    And add to that: that wasn't an isolated incident.

    Why the media doesn't do a better job reporting it is anyone's guess. The main groups that do report it would be considered fringe--even by me (far-right Christian news outlets and many mainstream Jewish media from Israel). I'll try to find more accepted news outlets that can confirm those things on here a bit later when I get off work; but it is real. And very disturbing.
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  9. gatorev12

    gatorev12 Well-Known Member

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    http://voices.yahoo.com/iranian-government-film-says-muslim-messiah-coming-8180461.html

    There's a link to a yahoo article that addresses it. It was the first reputable one I could find--but I'll try and dig for a few other ones later. I know it's been covered in other countries (I have a newspaper app on my phone that lets you read newspapers from around the world--highly recommended, especially if you can speak other languages). It's been my experience that foreign media tends to cover a wider range of media information anyway.
  10. CHFG8R

    CHFG8R Premium Member

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    Interesting article. Again, kinda like Hitler's search for historical proof of the Aryan supermen fantasy.
  11. chompalot

    chompalot Well-Known Member

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  12. wargunfan

    wargunfan Well-Known Member

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    I don't know if this has already been discussed but I think Iran's gaining of a deliverable nuclear weapon puts Israel in a "launch on warning" posture. Once their satellites warn of a launch with the proper trajectory, Israel has about five minutes to respond before they are obliterated. I expect Israel to let Iran know that they are on launch on warning alert. That was, and probably is, the US response to a Russian/Chinese etc. attack.
  13. gatorev12

    gatorev12 Well-Known Member

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    I've mentioned it a few times--specifically, that everyone seems to assume the Cold War-concept of MAD applies since Israel has nukes too.

    When the nukes arrive in 5 minutes, that's only long enough to hit the button and maybe get a few missiles in the air IF they are already fueled and ready to go. Since it's extremely unlikely that Iran will tell Israel "hey, we're going to let fly at 0330 hours...mmk?"--Israel's ability to hit back is effectively null and void since it's impossible to be at full counter-strike readiness much longer than a couple of weeks at a time.

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