I like UF over UK at all five positions again this year

Discussion in 'Nuttin' but Net' started by InstiGATOR1, Jul 6, 2014.

  1. InstiGATOR1
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    InstiGATOR1 Well-Known Member

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    Last year I came to this UK board and posted that I liked UF over UK at every position. That is I said that I liked

    PG: Wilbekin and Hill over whichever Harrison UK imagines is a PG and Hawkins

    SG: Frazier and Graham over the other Harrison and J. Young

    SF: Finney-Smith and Prather over Poythress and Lee

    PF: C.Walker and Yeguete over Randle and Willis

    C: P.Young and Harris over Cauley-Stein and Johnson

    As it turns out UK played three guards, Harris never made it to the court for UF and C.Walker was delayed and did not play much moving Finney-Smith to the PF. Prather played so well making Finney-Smith available more for front court minutes.

    I took a lot of heat from the UK fans here, both overt and covert. They particularly imagined I was an idiot for saying Wilbekin would clearly be better than whichever Harrison UK imagined was a PG who was of course one of the top PGs in basketball history. I remain pretty happy with my evaluations from a year ago. The only case that could be made is Randle/Poythress over what became Finney-Smith/Yeguete and that is not completely clear cut to me, though I am sure it is to all you UK fans.

    So after some thought, I think I like UF better than UK at every position again this season.

    PG: Hill and Chiozza over Harrison and Ullis

    Hill is an experienced PG. Whichever Harrison this year is imagined a PG will be an experienced SG. Chiozza is a slightly bigger version of Ullis. So this one is a no brainer to me.

    SG: Frazier and Carter over Harrison and Booker

    Frazier is a proven shooter at a higher level than any of the UK SG prospects. A healthy Carter is proven NCAA scorer. Whichever Harrison is I guess a bit experienced by has not shown to be a top level college shooter like Frazier. Booker who might be the third starting guard, is unproven at this level. If Carter can not get back to form, then D.Walker is proven here some. Throw in Graham and Francis and UF is likely to come up with a solid backup here. This is another easy choice.

    SF: Finney-Smith and D. Walker over Poythress and Lyles

    Finney-Smith is a proven college player as is Poythress. Finney-Smith out rebounded and out scored Poythress a year ago. D.Walker is a proven college player Lyles is a true frosh and maybe a 4 who will be stuck in a logjam there and Booker if he ends up playing here is another Frosh unknown. [BTW, how much must Poythress regret not picking Vandy or UF rather than being recruited over year after year at UK?] Another easy pick to me.

    PF: C.Walker and Robinson over Towns and Lee

    Some would put Robinson at SF and Finney-Smith here, but I will go this way. C.Walker is experienced and is likely to be at a minimum a 10/6 guy for UF this year. Lee showed some flashes in the NCAA tourney, but is no more proven than C.Walker. Robinson is a highly rated recruit. This is a solid choice, though when a true frosh like Towns is involved, you never know how they will develop.

    C: Horford and Murphy over Johnson and Cauley-Stein

    I guess I sort of put the potential stars at PF and the more journey men here. Horford is a proven solid rebounder with similar rebounding and scoring percentages to Cauley-Stein.. Murphy was highly recruited but played little at Duke while Johnson was highly recruited and played a bit more as a frosh at UK. Center is probably the position I would say my call is the closest.

    Last year UK fans stalked me even on other UK boards like Rupp’s Rafters after my post demanding that I say UF would sweep UK. [My crime was of course liking my team better than their team, shame on me.] I would never make that predictions as things change [as they did last year] and the better team does not always win on the road. As everyone knows, UF in fact beat UK 3 times last year. It will be interesting to see how it plays out this season, but I again this year like UF at all 5 positions compared to UK.
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  2. corpgator
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    I agree on 1 through 4, but I'd take Johnson and Cauley-Stein over Horford and Murphy.
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  3. GatorLurker
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    I disagree.

    Get real.

    UK will be 40-0 just like last year.
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  4. REM08
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    REM08 Well-Known Member

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    I disagreed with you last year and I proved more inaccurate in my projections than you did, overall.

    Wilbekin was clearly better than Andrew was last year. Much better defensively also.

    I'd give a slight edge to Frazier (blasphemous as that may sound to some of you) over Aaron due to a better overall FG percentage. Aaron had the advantage, albeit a slight one, in several other categories, but FG% is a big one, especially for a 2 guard IMO. Frazier shot around 10% better from 3, which is big, but still care more about overall % - which Frazier still wins by 4%. Frazier is also a slightly better defender than Aaron is. Don't worry, I'm not undercutting Frazier's defensive ability/improvement last year - I'm giving Aaron more credit on D than most of you probably would. He wasn't as bad as his brother and ended the year playing average defense. I'm also not counting Aaron's March-clutchness, fun as it was, into this comparison. Its small when looking at the entire year.

    I'm pretty torn (sure didn't think I would be going into the year) on Prather vs Young. Scoring was similar. I'd give slight advantages to each of them in several different categories. Prather's big advantage was his FG%. The only thing that makes me qualify that a little was the absolute non-threat he was from outside. For a wing, that costs the team on offense. I can't make a definitive case for Young being better though.

    Where I'm not torn is at the power forward spot. Whatever you think of Randle as an NBA player or whatever kind of short arms he may have, he was a VERY effective college player and was focused on MUCH MUCH more than UF's power forwards were. Numbers don't tell the whole story, but DFS and Yeguette's points and rebounds/game combined don't equal Randle's - and neither of them drew the attention of the opposing defense like Randle did. Its not close here.

    I'm also surprised I can't make a better case for WCS and Johnson over Young. WCS wasn't healthy, or at least wasn't 100% for much of the year, but it seemed he was also passive at times also. Johnson ended up much better than he started but didn't make that improvement for most of the year. Neither played the defense Young did (cant' believe I'm saying that about WCS though).

    ---

    Next year makes for harder comparisons IMO. We're doing more projecting on some of UF's players and UK has a kind of lop-sided roster in some respects that make for odd player-for-player comparisons.

    I'd take Andrew/Ulis over Hill Chiozza though. I'm not of the opinion that Andrew is the second coming of John Wall (nor was I ever), but I did project a higher ceiling for him than it appears is reality. I think he'll be a very good college player but has some athletic limitations. That being said, he played very well in March last year and, if that continues, I think he'll be as good or better than Hill NEXT YEAR. I think Hill's ceiling is higher. However, I think he's further from it than I thought he was from what I saw last year. For him to be better than Andrew IMO, he'll need to make a big leap this year. Some sophomores do. I also like Ulis over Chiozza. I realize their similar, but I've been astounded by what I've seen of Ulis so far. Honestly haven't seen much of Chiozza (highlight videos really), but he'd really have to be flying under the radar if he's as good as Ulis is looking. Some of you might suggest he's not getting the hype he would have gotten if he'd picked UK or something like that. We'll see I guess.... For once, this is a position where UK has a slight edge in experience. Hill will be learning to be THE point guard - whereas Andrew has done this.

    I'd take Frazier/Carter BARELY over Aaron/Booker. This is really based on Frazier and not on Carter who's heath isn't even known fully. I'm also assuming that Frazier is going to make a leap in his ability to become more mufti-dimensional on offense. If he can, then he's tough to beat here. I would give the edge to Booker over UF's backup though. Booker is a lot like Doron Lamb. He'll be very good in college.

    Small Forward: How do we even compare this? I see no reason to be confident about who either team will be playing most of the time at this position. The best option for both teams is probably a power forward (DFS and Poythress). I love both of these guys at the 4. I can't picture how DFS will look at the 3 very well. I can picture Poythress, and don't love it, but supposedly he's working overtime to adjust to the position over the summer. Will Poythress shoot like his freshmen year or his sophomore year? I actually think Booker or Aaron H. plays the 3 a good bit of the time. I'd take DFS over Poythress I think, but I'd take Booker or Aaron H over Alex Murphy or DWalker. Robinson would be interesting though - just aren't confident how he'll look next year.

    I'd take Lyles/Towns over Walker/Murphy fairly confidently. This is another tough one because maybe 5 different players might play this spot for either team. I could be wrong obviously, but I'm not ultra high on Murphy compared to guys like Lyles or Towns. Both are going to be very good next year and would start for most teams. Walker is the ultimate wildcard. His ceiling is so high its barely visible. But we sure didn't get much of a chance to see where he's at based on last year. Even with significant progress, I wouldn't pick that group over UK's.

    WCS/Johnson over Horford/other easily. I will truly give you credit as a genius if Horford and Alex Murphy end up playing better at the center spot than UK's duo. I'll give you half credit if you can even find a few UF fans who agree with you.




    There are enough variables in play with most of these positions that its hard to project much overall IMO.

    Last year, I gave you grief for your homer-like picks. I also gave you credit when you were right about some of them (unprovoked credit if you remember). I remember suggesting, sarcastically, that you would have obviously picked UF to sweep UK based on your player comparisons last year. You actually agreed and were correct. We dont' know how a 4th matchup would have worked out and I do feel its fair to say that UK made more progress as a team than UF did last year (certainly had more to be made though). I underestimated how much ground there was to be made up last year and how long it would take for significant progress to happen. Who would have thought March?

    That being said, are you predicted another sweep? I say we save this thread somehow or maybe make a new prediction one closer to the start of the season. UK has some games this summer that will help provide more info to a degree.
  5. hoopstar
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    I picked FL over KY last season & will do the same again next season. Not sure we will sweep them this year, but will do just fine. I'll take Hill & Chiozza. Hear the little guy is for real, can ball it up-cat quick & will surprise everyone.
    Also hear the USF transfer is a beast in the paint. Will be a super addition when he's cleared to play. Next seasons team has the potential to be very very good, best in a long time with the athletes they have in the barn. One thing that is badly needed is chemistry. That will take some time to develop, but it will come at some point. Atlantis will be a good early test to see where we stand against next seasons elite teams IMO.
    We have enough weapons to stand up to KY, no doubt in my mind!
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  6. BigIgator25
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    1) pg Hill/Chiozza over Harrison/ulis...Hill abused Harrison in there matchups last year and he will be better again this year. I take Chiozza over Ullis, there is about a 4 inch size differential and they play similarly. No brainr to me

    2) SG I cval slight edge to UF..Frazier just needs to move more without the ball. Carter is a proven scorer.

    3) I am callinf UF slightly again because UK doesn't have a true 3, so I look for a lot of _3 guard looks for them.

    4 I give this a push, both teams have great talent yet unproven.

    5) I would have sent UF is Harris was here, but UK has more depth and talent here. Horford will help on defense and rebounding, but he is no Frankenstein or WCS
  7. tampajack1
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    UK looks to me to have one of the most talented group of college basketball players ever. However, I can't dismiss Insti's evaluation. After all, he was the only person I am aware of (including Billy Donovan) who was perceptive enough to realize that Erving Walker was slow; and that was before Erving got caught from behind with taco in hand.
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  8. Osiris_DPM
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    Murphy is not a center by any stretch of the imagination. Just because he shares a last name with his brother doesn't mean he shares the same game. He's a perimeter slashing type, will see most of his minutes at the 3 and some at the 4 out of necessity. He's more like Parsons than his big brother (i.e., point forward vs. stretch 4). Finney-Smith fits the stretch 4 position much better, so may as well swap them in your analysis (post/wing).
  9. mdfgator
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    So would every other college hoops fan, it's not close. Kentucky will be the heavy favorites to will it all next year, they are loaded, we are doing pretty well ourselves, but none of these match ups are "easy" picks
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  10. GothamGator
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    Good stuff. I do think UK has the edge at center this year. I also expect that DFS will be a stretch 4 for us rather than a SF. I think that gives us the edge at PF, but may give UK the edge at SF.
  11. Crono139
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    Murphy isn't a C.

    PG: UF
    - Aside from the shooting aspect, Hill looked better than Harrison last year. Those mental breakdowns...
    SG: UF - No brainer especially if Frazier's work with Dupay pays off.
    SF: ? - DFS is careless with the ball so I expect Murphy to end up here. Poythress looked pretty good at the end of last season.
    PF: UK - I hope that Walker takes the leap that we all expect him to and, if DFS ends up here, I hope that his shot comes around.
    C: UK - Horford is a solid addition but WCS and Johnson are scary.
  12. InstiGATOR1
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    InstiGATOR1 Well-Known Member

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    Well a few points:

    1. Here is a side by side comparison of Prather and James Young last year:

    http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=james-young&p1=casey-prather

    It really is not very close. Prather is a better offensive player and rebounder. Neither are much when it comes to assists. Young was not an elite shooter from the arc.

    2. Cauley-Stein is coming off a year in which he lost his starting position and then was injured. Last year Horford has a similar offensive rating to Cauley-Stein and rebounds a greater percentage both on both the offensive and defensive end:

    http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/co...ie-cauley-stein&willie-cauley-stein=2013-2014

    We shall see if Horford's rates hold up as his minutes increase.

    3. Concerning Alex Murphy, I think the post minutes will be split among Horford, Murphy and C.Walker with each player getting 24ish minutes per game. I listed him at C, because I did not want to list players twice. BTW, anyone who thinks Murphy is a wing needs to look at his shooting percentage from the arc at Duke and particularly for Finland when he had a green light to shoot.

    4. Anyone who thinks they know the composite 19th player is better than the composite 43rd player from 24/7 is just fooling themselves. So the frosh PGs are a push and it comes down to Hill and whichever Harrison.

    5. The SF position is not a hard one for me, UF has some SFs, UK may not and may go with a 3 guard offense again is more of a reason to like UF at that position.

    6. BTW, I do not subscribe to the UK group think that UK's little 5 game winning streak in the NCAA tourney means much of anything. They did rally after UF typically got up double digits in the SEC championship game, but UF was basically double digits better than UK last year. [Also it took a terrible call that stole points from UF to even start the UK rally.] So yes a 4th game likely would have been another such win. Then in the NCAA tourney UK slopped in some really low percentage shots to win a couple of close games. So while the UK fans covert and overt here and elsewhere can smugly think UK somehow grew late last season, I do not subscribe to that theory. I suspect their shooting from the arc will regress to the mean this year.
  13. Osiris_DPM
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    Instigator, Prather couldn't shoot a lick from the arc and he started at the 3. Besides, regardless of what his 3 point shooting stats show, that's where Murphy practices with the team. He even ran some point during practices before the UCLA game. He's a slasher, not a nifty post player like his brother.
  14. LetItFly
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    I see it this way

    PG: Hill
    SG: Frazier
    SF: Robinson
    PF: DFS
    C: Walker

    VS

    PG: Harrison
    SG: Harrison
    SF: Booker
    PF: Lyles
    C: Townes

    Florida is better at every position except for maybe PF.

    2nd group

    PG: Chiozza
    SG: Carter/Francis
    SF: DFS/DWalker
    PF: Murphy
    C: Horford

    VS

    PG: Ullis
    SG: Booker
    SF: Poythress
    PF: Lee
    C: Dakari/WCS

    When it comes to the second group I give Florida the advantage at SG and SF. Uk has the advantage at PF and C, with the PG being a wash.
    Last edited: Jul 7, 2014
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  15. tampajack1
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    Your Gator bias is a thing of beauty. Kentucky has at least 8 first round draft picks on their roster. They are going to play. Cauley-Stein and Johnson will share time at center. Lee and Lyles or Townes will likely be the power forwards. Poythress and Lyles or Townes likely will be the small forwards. Aaron Harrison and Booker likely will be the shooting guards with Andrew Harrison and Ulis at the point. That is a powerhouse team that might be bigger than a lot of NBA teams. We are not going to be better than them at 4 positions. Hopefully, we will be competitive against Kentucky, but the road goes through Kentucky next season. IMO, we have a big coaching advantage. However, again IMO, the loss of Harris is a big one for us because it creates a size disadvantage against Kentucky.
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  16. InstiGATOR1
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    I do agree on Prather. I just think Donovan likes someone who can shoot a bit outside at the 3. So I expect to see Murphy at the 4 mostly. If he can slash and hit a 10 foot face up jumper, he is more like they typical Donovan 4 than a 3.

    As far as running point before UCLA, that was to simulate a tall PG, right?
  17. Droppingin
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    Lets summarize it this way: We could be better next season, assuming their learning curve is not too steep, than this last. However, UK is loaded and there returners are a year older/experienced; I would not bet against them.

    The UF/UK games are going to be awesome. We have the edge at coach for sure though.
  18. regurgigator
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    Good analysis, but I'm feeling pretty sure that C Walker is going to be a beast next season based on what I saw in his, admittedly, limited playing time.

    Walker was very aggressive offensively in the paint (Donovan may try to tone that down) and, despite looking very awkward in getting some of his shots off, he generally showed great inside touch (after his first couple of games).

    Seems like UF may have the pieces to be a great running/fastbreak team with Hill running the point on break; DFS, Murphy & Walker (especially Walker) filling the lanes; Frazier flaring out for threes; etc. Match-ups can kind of go out the window if you can beat the other team down the court. We'll just have to make sure we make UK miss enough shots so we can get some outlet passes going :cool:
  19. themistocles
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    I tend to agree with REM on this.

    Although Prather was great, Young was also, so I see that as a Push (tie).

    Randle, as REM noted, was frequently a one man team, and PolySci was good, whereas DFS was quite inconsistent and Yeguete was half an offensive weakness (good passing, weak shooting) although a defensive strength, which can describe no Kentucky player (maybe WCS).


    Regarding this year, Insti, as usual, you are showing that predictions are far better made after something occurs for several reasons:

    1 - Robinson is not likely to play PF because (1) he lacks the bulk, and more importantly, (2) in Billy D's game, the 4 is the most complex position, so Frosh tend to play very little. As an example, if the Gators had gotten Randle last year, at least half his playing time would have been at center rather than strictly PF as he was at Ky. That's also why Chris Walker, despite weighing only 30 lbs, played almost strictly Center last year.

    2 - Murphy is very unlikely to play Center, and far more likely to play the 3 with some time at PF. I think there can be little doubt that when Chris Walker plays 4, Horford will play Center, and when Horford doesn't play Center, Chris Walker will, except in the waning minutes of blowouts.

    3 - I think that choosing Hill and Chiozzo reflects biased thinking. Harrison & Ulis will be a very, very good combination at PG.

    4 - AND MOST IMPORTANTLY - ALL SUCH COMPARISONS ARE RELATIVELY MEANINGLESS BECAUSE BASKETBALL, AT LEAST AT FLORIDA, IS A TEAM PROCESS - THE REASON THE GATORS BEAT THE CATS 3-0 LAST YEAR WAS NOT FROM HAVING BETTER PLAYERS ANYWHERE, BUT HAVING A BETTER TEAM EVERYWHERE.
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2014
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  20. tampajack1
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    I might be having a brain cramp, but who is PolySci? As for Randle, I think that if he had played for Billy, he would have gotten a lot more playing time on the perimeter. IMO, Calipari did not take advantage of Randle's skills by playing him so much in the low post where he would be double and triple teamed. Randle has teriffic ballhandling and driving skills for such a big and strong guy. I see Billy as giving Randle the opportunity to play more like Lebron plays.

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