How important is time of possession?

Discussion in 'Swamp Gas' started by philnotfil, Sep 15, 2013.

  1. Minister_of_Information

    Minister_of_Information I'm your huckleberry Premium Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    13,789
    Likes Received:
    560
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    In my prime
    Ratings Received:
    +1,016
    It would be interesting to see via statistical analysis what is the ranking of indirect factors in terms of their correlation with victory. I would guess that first order factors include turnover margin, big plays, and red zone efficiency. Second order factors probably include rushing yards, sacks, missed tackles, third down efficiency, yards per play, average starting field position, etc. Third order factors probably include time of possession, passing efficiency, offensive plays, penalties, punts forced, tackles for loss, etc. Of course those are not much more than wild ass guesses.
  2. regator

    regator Member

    Joined:
    Nov 29, 2010
    Messages:
    691
    Likes Received:
    24
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Ratings Received:
    +200
    The problem with long drives are that this is college football. Much greater risk of penalty or turnover the longer a team has the ball and the more plays they run.
    THese are college kids. They make mistakes.
  3. Matthanuf06

    Matthanuf06 New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2007
    Messages:
    10,825
    Likes Received:
    17
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Ratings Received:
    +17
    I never said that. I said that it is irrelevant. Totally irrelevant. It has equal importance as how many of our players wear short jerseys and show off their stomachs.

    Irrelevant.

    Many of you keep saying that TOP is important to us because of our style of play. Wrong. Our style of play will lead us to win TOP nearly every game. It doesn't mean that we won or lost or played well or played poorly. Our style of play leads to TOP. Just like our players will lead in stomachs shown.

    We run the ball more than nearly every opponent. We snap the ball later than every opponent. We have a better defense than every opponent.

    Those three facts will lead to more clock ticking off when we have the ball than when they have the ball. It's common sense. Those three facts doesn't say anything at all on how well we did those three things. In fact we can do the first and the third really bad for our standards and STILL have the ball for more time.

    Irrelevant.
  4. Matthanuf06

    Matthanuf06 New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2007
    Messages:
    10,825
    Likes Received:
    17
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Ratings Received:
    +17
    TOP only really matters late in games. Typically the winning team runs clock and wins the game. If you are winning late you want to shorten the game, which makes sense.
  5. wygator

    wygator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2010
    Messages:
    6,294
    Likes Received:
    269
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +837
    When Spurrier was coach here, we usually were on the short end of TOP because we were so efficient at scoring quickly.

    Spurrier wisely pointed out that during the course of a game, each team will get pretty much the same number of possessions. It's how many points you score with those possessions that matters.
  6. gator34654

    gator34654 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2007
    Messages:
    4,606
    Likes Received:
    191
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +905
    Bottom line, unless you have the talent of lets say bama, executing long drives for tds is a real challenge. As was said again and again and again, long drives have more opportunities to mess up which we have seen again and again and again.

    Even bama has evolved to a more balanced attack than run run pass. And they are not a dink and dink team when it comes to passing. True, they have better personnel but we are in the third year of WM. If WM can build a monster D with recruits, then is it not their responsibility to recruit well on offense. I contend that our offense has as many 4 and 5 star players as say usce and yet we are no where near their offense. Is that talent or coaching or scheme? We seem to be near the bottom of the sec in offense especially where it counts and that is scoring.

    I contend we have enough talent on O and thus should be better than we are. To me, it comes down to style, this O is exactly what WM wants it to be minus the turnovers. Yet, imo it is this style that has created issues with regards to penalties, turnovers, injured OL, and lack of scoring. As has been mentioned, good defenses can rotate DL, where as our OL primarily uses the same 5 players. You would think that with the TOP we had going into the 4th quarter, um would be totally exhausted on D but that was not the case. Against good D, it is a myth that our style of O that produces TOP will wear down good defenses.

    My prediction, is that BP with WM OK, will open the O a bit more. Will become a bit more balanced, but I don't anticipate us changing all that much from running and completing passes of the ten yards and under. I still think JD will hold on to the ball a bit more because he's afraid of ints and so we may see JD tucking and running a bit more and probably a bit more sacks. It's this reason why I believe WM will continue the runs and short passes to stay away from the long yardage situations. Long yardage situations for this O spells trouble.

    Is there any other current college team running this style of O that is having success?
  7. wygator

    wygator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2010
    Messages:
    6,294
    Likes Received:
    269
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +837
    I'm pretty sure I've read that the single statistic with the highest correlation to game outcome is turnovers.

    Worth noting that when we played OK for the championship, Florida and OK were number one and two in the country in turnover margin.
  8. GatorRade

    GatorRade Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    6,780
    Likes Received:
    195
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +595
    Short and to the point. Exactly.
  9. gator07

    gator07 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 18, 2009
    Messages:
    3,164
    Likes Received:
    165
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +703
    They were probably also the #1 and #2 offenses in the country as well. Good offenses are proficient at the fundamentals and therefore are not prone to turn the ball over, even though they may be running a high number of plays, scoring a lot of points, and not just playing conservatively with the #1 goal of avoiding those turnovers.

    Bad offenses don't just turn it over because they are unlucky. They turn it over because they struggle to block, run good routes, secure the ball, make good decisions as to where and when to throw the ball, etc.
  10. OaktownGator

    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    25,566
    Likes Received:
    2,247
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ratings Received:
    +5,703
    And what style did SOS move to before he started being successful at USCe?
  11. INGATORSWETRUST

    INGATORSWETRUST Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    14,269
    Likes Received:
    375
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Location:
    Florida
    Ratings Received:
    +375
    It is only important if your red zone offensive efficiency rating is also high and you limit turnovers.
  12. gator07

    gator07 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 18, 2009
    Messages:
    3,164
    Likes Received:
    165
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +703
    Or what about Ole Miss? Do they have that much more talent than us to be putting up twice as many points per game as us? They have a new head coach who is only starting his second year there. Their star freshman recruit already has 16 catches in 3 games. Our two have 1 catch total through 2 games.

    Our talent level is fine. Its the coaches job to coach them up and get the most out of them. Right now that's not happening at any position, really. Offensively our coaches obviously do not develop the talent and install an effective offense as quickly as most other teams are able to. I'm not sure how you could argue that point, short of saying we have one of the worst offensive rosters in the nation, which I do not think we do by any means.

    This is another stark contrast between the O and the D. The defense rotates at most positions. And they force many 3 and outs, meaning they are staying very fresh. Meanwhile, our offense plods along and uses the same OL for the most part (until someone comes out for injury) and the same 3 WR (with a cameo here and there by the freshman), and mostly the same RB (despite being ill). And as long was we hold the ball on offense, who is really the ones getting worn out?

    Granted the D has much more depth and can afford to rotate, but that comes back to player development. It just seems to be lacking on the O side of the ball.

    And to me this plan backfires. The more you pound the ball up the middle and the more you throw short passes, the more the defense stacks the box and shuts these plays down leading to more 3rd and long situations. Not to mention that short throws are often into traffic where balls can be tipped and picked and receivers catch balls in traffic where they can be gang-tackled and fumbles can result (Burton). Players in space rarely turn the ball over. IMO we are suffocating ourselves.
  13. grumpy_gator

    grumpy_gator New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2013
    Messages:
    886
    Likes Received:
    74
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Seattle, WA
    Ratings Received:
    +74
    ... or I could just point out the offensive struggles we had in 2010 under the Meyer Regime and ask: what's the difference?
  14. Minister_of_Information

    Minister_of_Information I'm your huckleberry Premium Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    13,789
    Likes Received:
    560
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    In my prime
    Ratings Received:
    +1,016
    The defense inherently has to work harder than the offense, who knows exactly where to go and what to do prior to the snap count which they also know. The defense has to react to what they see and try to stop it. It is always easier to do something than it is to stop someone from doing something.
  15. grumpy_gator

    grumpy_gator New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2013
    Messages:
    886
    Likes Received:
    74
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Seattle, WA
    Ratings Received:
    +74
    This.
  16. HungryGator

    HungryGator VIP Member

    Joined:
    Apr 7, 2007
    Messages:
    2,766
    Likes Received:
    12
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Location:
    Maxville, FL
    Ratings Received:
    +20
    I think it's good to have an offense that can score quickly and make big plays and also control the clock when it's needed. Georgia seemed to do that well against South Carolina, as much as I hate to admit it.
  17. GatorDad

    GatorDad New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2007
    Messages:
    279
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Ratings Received:
    +0
    TOP is great until you trail late in a game and have no quick scoring ability because all you ever try to do is grind out TOP.
  18. Minister_of_Information

    Minister_of_Information I'm your huckleberry Premium Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    13,789
    Likes Received:
    560
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    In my prime
    Ratings Received:
    +1,016
    Yes I agree that is a good thing, and while I think our hurry up is lacking we did show the ability to work the ball downfield at times including on the last TD. Driskel looked bad at times but he did have nearly 300 yards. One thing about Miami and FSU is that no matter how good they are overall, they always have athletic defensive backs that can cover our receivers so I think our passing performance may have been skewed negatively by that.
  19. gator34654

    gator34654 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2007
    Messages:
    4,606
    Likes Received:
    191
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +905
    It's true D for the most part have a tougher job, that is reacting to what O is doing, but D also can counter with blitzes, ect. But to your point, as a whole its true the O knows what its doing. But that has zero factor in regards to fatigue. Good teams subs players on D especially DL. We had 2 to 1 TOP against um and they were not worn out. I do not believe one moment that our TOP wears out good D that has depth. The only way D are worn down is in an uptempo team that does not subsititute. That forces the D to play the same 11 guys at a hurried pace.
  20. Minister_of_Information

    Minister_of_Information I'm your huckleberry Premium Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    13,789
    Likes Received:
    560
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    In my prime
    Ratings Received:
    +1,016
    I think there is some truth to the idea that fatigue is most acute after cumulative efforts to exhaustion without rest. This is why it was important for our offense to hold the ball at the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second. It gave our defense a breather and allowed them to get their legs back under them. It cuts both ways, doesn't it.

Share This Page