How important is time of possession?

Discussion in 'Swamp Gas' started by philnotfil, Sep 15, 2013.

  1. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    As I recall, didn't Grossman throw 4 picks against Auburn that year? And in the Tennessee game, we went down 14-0 in the first quarter. In both games, I believe we were without our top RB and had negative rushing yards.

    I'm really not seeing the evidence for TOP being the deciding factor.
  2. Minister_of_Information
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    Minister_of_Information I'm your huckleberry Premium Member

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    We were tied or had the lead late in the fourth quarter of both games. The defense folded in both, as Auburn and Tennessee ran it down our throats late.
  3. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    Eh, that's sort of an arbitrary way to look at it (and one that assumes that our defensive struggles were caused because we often passed). If our defense did not let Tennessee run it down our throats in the first quarter, we would have won by two TDs.
  4. Minister_of_Information
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    Minister_of_Information I'm your huckleberry Premium Member

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    I guess in your world fatigue doesn't matter.

    "Fatigue makes cowards of us all." ~ Vince Lombardi
  5. MaceoP
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    MaceoP Well-Known Member

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    Watching the Giants/Broncos today, Bill Parcells was on the sidelines for a ceremony, as he was inducted in the Hall of Fame. Bill Parcells was inducted in the Hall of Fame for playing exactly the style I described. Tell Bill Parcells that TOP is useless. You can hypothesize all you want whether something is valid or not, however this method has been proven to be valid. Let's call the way we are playing now the "Parcells style" TOP works in the context of the "Parcells style" because you are limiting the number of possessions of your opponent.
    If you have a really good D, you can make long, time consuming drives, and limit the number of possessions of your opponent, then that would be the formula for success that was used by Parcells, and the style we seem to be playing for now.
  6. OaktownGator
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    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

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    Good examples. We were physically and mentally beaten in the fourth quarters of those games, and that's exactly what Muschamp wants us to do to other teams.

    Dominating the LOS, playing ball control, field position and great defense is one way to make that happen. In that style, TOP is meaningful metric for that team.

    Oregon's approach of just running teams ragged is another way. TOP doesn't matter for them.

    TOP matters when it matters, and it matters for this team.
  7. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    Not at all. I am making a few other comments:

    1) Our defense was getting run over before they were fatigued.
    2) Having negative rushing yards and throwing 4 interceptions are not a good for winning.
    3) Taking 10 minutes to run a possession that takes 3 minutes off the clock offers the same rest as taking 10 minutes to run a possession that takes 6 minutes off the clock.
    4) Also, how do you know that Tennessee wasn't just better than us?

    I guess in your world, none of these factors matter.
  8. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    What I am saying is that what you are describing is playing good football, which is what makes teams win. If a good football team eats clock, TOP will be correlated with winning. If a good football team, scores like lightning, TOP will not be correlated with winning. As Phil and I mentioned above, eating TOP does not limit your opponents possessions. If it did, then absolutely it would be useful.
  9. GatorGrowl
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    In the first quarter UT ran it 13 times for 34 yards. Long of 7 short of -1
    In the second quarter UT ran it three times for 50 yards long of 49 short of 0
    Second half UT ran it 19 times for 158

    UT had time of poss for the game 33:09 26:51
  10. KronoGator
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    KronoGator Well-Known Member

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    Every box score I can find from the 01 ut game shows Florida with a top lead, they lost not because the d wore down but because we settled for four fgs.
  11. GatorGrowl
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    You are right, the numbers I have in the above post are reversed. Gators had TOP by about six minutes
  12. Minister_of_Information
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    Thanks for the correction, that is interesting. The UT game came down to big plays, although it felt like they were pushing us around physically as well.

    ETA: I was thinking of the 2006 Auburn game, where they held the ball 36 minutes to 23.
  13. GatorGrowl
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    The scores

    1st
    06:22 UT - Troy Fleming 2 yd pass from Casey Clausen (Alex Walls kick), 14 plays, 66 yards, TOP 7:05, UT 7 - UF 0

    03:03 UT - Travis Stephens 6 yd run (Alex Walls kick), 7 plays, 47 yards, TOP 2:05, UT 14 - UF 0

    2nd
    14:17 UF - Rex Grossman 1 yd run (Jeff Chandler kick), 10 plays, 80 yards, TOP 3:46, UT 14 - UF 7

    11:49 UF - Jeff Chandler 20 yd field goal, 7 plays, 13 yards, TOP 2:06, UT 14 - UF 10

    08:51 UF - Jabar Gaffney 21 yd pass from Rex Grossman (Jeff Chandler kick), 1 play, 21 yards, TOP 0:09, UT 14 - UF 17

    00:04 UF - Jeff Chandler 27 yd field goal, 14 plays, 63 yards, TOP 6:50, UT 14 - UF 20

    3rd
    13:04 UT - Travis Stephens 35 yd run (Alex Walls kick), 5 plays, 80 yards, TOP 1:56, UT 21 - UF 20

    05:54 UF - Jeff Chandler 35 yd field goal, 14 plays, 63 yards, TOP 7:10, UT 21 - UF 23

    4th
    13:09 UT - Jabari Davis 2 yd run (Casey Clausen rush fumbld), 7 plays, 55 yards, TOP 3:00, UT 27 - UF 23

    10:30 UF - Jeff Chandler 52 yd field goal, 7 plays, 43 yards, TOP 2:39, UT 27 - UF 26

    08:30 UT - Jabari Davis 1 yd run (Alex Walls kick), 4 plays, 77 yards, TOP 2:00, UT 34 - UF 26

    01:10 UF - Carlos Perez 2 yd pass from Rex Grossman (Rex Grossman pass failed), 10 plays, 66 yards, TOP 3:50, UT 34 - UF 32
    • Like Like x 1
  14. Minister_of_Information
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    So, sometimes it doesn't matter. I do think this underscores another point that we should all be able to agree with: it is difficult to win any game without making some big plays, meaning plays of 20+ yards.
  15. gator34654
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    gator34654 Well-Known Member

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    I like what SOS said, "stats are for losers". SOS one of the best coaches at UF didn't need TOP, he scored quick and often. But that was his style of O. SOS was an offensive coach. Many offensive coaches simply want to score and attack defenses. That style works for some teams and not so much for others.

    Saban, Miles, and to some extent Mack Brown opt for a more conservative approach, as in stout D, and a power running game. Usually, such teams win TOP and also win games.

    We have a D minded coach thus our D is stout. Keep in mind WM coaching at auburn and affiliated with Saban seems to opt for the tuff running style with a qb that becomes a game manager. WM recipe is to play tuff on D, play field position, protect the ball, and score JUST ENOUGH to win. His style will never blow a team out unless teams implode by turning the ball over. WM style with quality players will win lots of games. But there are risks to WM style of offense as we've seen from teams that stuff the run and besides have a quality offense. These teams stuffed our run, got a lead, and when we tried to open it up which we were not really good at doing because our bread and butter was running, we imploded.

    Another risk in this style is that you can eat clock and have mulitiple hiccups along the way that result in punts, fgs, or turnovers. Last year we kept inferrior teams in the game that had no business being in the game. We could have easily dropped a few more games last year. In those cases TOP didn't help but rather hurt because when any of the 3 negatives occured it kept teams close and gave them hope.

    I believe WM will NOT change his approach of running what I call a conservative style O. He does not want the O to turn the ball over and prefers going for higher percentage plays. Yet, he can't control fumbles or if our qb gets rattled, or holds onto the ball to long because he's scared to death of throwing a pick. WM's approach will win more games than not, but I'm not sure it will consistently win against teams with very good offenses and defenses. Any team that can get a lead on us often times spells trouble for us.

    TOP is great if you can sustain long drives and score consistently. That's exactly what bama was able to do. Their D shut people down and they had players that could sustain long drives and score. To merely have long drives with little to show for it, imo works against you.

    By the way, our TOP imo kept Toledo in the game what I mean by that the score was tighter than it should have been. And again we won heavily TOP vs um and it meant squat. Remember TOP is an advantage in a game if you can sustain long drives and score primarily tds.
  16. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    I think it is very difficult to win without big plays. It is just so tough to move 80 yards in 4 yard increments.

    Also, does anyone else find it a bit discombobulating to watch Doc Holliday discuss this with himself? :)
  17. WESGATORS
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    WESGATORS Well-Known Member

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    Number of plays is a more significant indicator than time of possession. A team that wins TOP but runs fewer plays is likely on the losing end trying to minimize the damage.

    Go GATORS!
    ,WESGATORS
  18. gatorlaw71
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    gatorlaw71 Well-Known Member

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    No, we won quite a few games last year despite Muschamp's method.
  19. OaktownGator
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    Given a very strong defense, a first year QB behind a very thin OL that couldn't pass protect, and a very limited WR unit, what method would you have used to produce better results?
  20. gatorich
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    I'm assuming this thread, not your post, is still addressing the Miami game and our "style" of offense. TOP against Miami: UF 38.20 vs UM 21.40....Offensive plays UF 77, UM 53.... Average Gain Per Play UF 5.4. UM 4.0....first downs UF 22, UM 10 and now the big one Turn Overs UF 5, UM 1.
    When you turn the ball over 5 times, critical times, all the rest matters very little.

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