How important is time of possession?

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by philnotfil, Sep 15, 2013.

  1. philnotfil
    Offline

    philnotfil Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    12,546
    Likes Received:
    157
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +555
    Of the 28 games on ESPN's scores page, 14 were won by the team with a higher time of possession, and in 14 of those games the team with a higher time of possession ended up losing the game.

    Just a one week sample, and ignores everything other than time of possession, but that kind of looks like winning time of possession isn't a very good predictor of winning games.
  2. rserina
    Offline

    rserina VIP Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    27,258
    Likes Received:
    490
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +1,997
    I think it tends to be way overrated, especially if it doesn't correlate well with yardage. If you have a good defense that is regularly getting three and outs, then it tends to be a good sign. But it doesn't account for big plays or short fields.
  3. ThePlayer
    Offline

    ThePlayer VIP Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    27,630
    Likes Received:
    452
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +2,079
    It's not how long you have the ball, but rather what you do with it.
    - Howard Cosell's Football 101
  4. RealGatorFan
    Offline

    RealGatorFan Premium Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    13,574
    Likes Received:
    172
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings Received:
    +773
    ^^^This. Tennessee had more TOP than Oregon. Final nail in every coffin. TOP is overrated.
  5. MaceoP
    Offline

    MaceoP Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    2,677
    Likes Received:
    59
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings Received:
    +299
    Here we go again... If you have a ball control offense, (strong rushing game, limited turnovers) coupled with a top notch defense, then TOP could be a style of play where you control the clock, wear out the other team, and stuff the other team's O.. This is an old-school style of play that very few teams play in this era.

    Apparently, Coach has decided to play this way, whether because of personal preference, or (my belief), our lack of a dynamic passing game. TOP as a stat by itself means very little, unless you have a specific style of play (which is what we are trying to do)
  6. gatorr4life
    Offline

    gatorr4life Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    23,532
    Likes Received:
    467
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +1,726
    This.
  7. rserina
    Offline

    rserina VIP Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    27,258
    Likes Received:
    490
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +1,997
    Most teams have a greater time of possession in one quarter than Oregon has an entire game. Not sure that is a fair comparison.
  8. Matthanuf06
    Offline

    Matthanuf06 New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2007
    Messages:
    10,825
    Likes Received:
    17
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Ratings Received:
    +17
    It's irrelevant. TOP does not show if we are playing well or not. Our TOP dominance is due to a great D and an offensive style that runs clock. That alone doesn't mean our offense is doing well or not. It means we run the ball most of the time and we snap late and our D quickly stops teams that don't care about wasting clock. Whether we do it well or not is moot in terms of TOP. Hence why it's irrelevant
  9. gatordavisl
    Offline

    gatordavisl Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    11,401
    Likes Received:
    498
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings Received:
    +1,950
    To my knowledge, there has been only one poster who mistakenly presumed that TOP was the determining factor. Any other Gator fans have acknowledged that it's one of many factors that serve to determine game results. Matt seems to want to cling to TOP as some argument against the Gators' offense. :roll:
  10. Jonas
    Offline

    Jonas Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2011
    Messages:
    3,901
    Likes Received:
    99
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings Received:
    +526
    Next up: is momentum real?
  11. grumpy_gator
    Offline

    grumpy_gator New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2013
    Messages:
    886
    Likes Received:
    74
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Seattle, WA
    Ratings Received:
    +74
    Time of possession is most important during those times when loss of possession of the football (AKA a turnover) results in a missed scoring opportunity or gives your opponent the opportunity to score. In those instances, time equates to points as one approaches the speed of light.
  12. keypox
    Offline

    keypox Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2008
    Messages:
    2,334
    Likes Received:
    30
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings Received:
    +154
    there is a reason few teams play this way. Fluff it up all you want, TOP doesn't win games (fact).
  13. oneatatime
    Offline

    oneatatime Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2007
    Messages:
    5,271
    Likes Received:
    66
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings Received:
    +317
    Oregon is certainly the exception, and a big turnover margin refutes it, but rather than time of possession, I think a more accurate indicator is number of offensive snaps
  14. garygator
    Offline

    garygator Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    1,220
    Likes Received:
    17
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Ratings Received:
    +18
    TOP is one of the most overrated stats in the game. At one point, prior to the evolution of the passing game, mass substitutions, and wide open offenses, it made a difference. Now it's meaningless.
  15. PTCGator
    Offline

    PTCGator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2008
    Messages:
    4,070
    Likes Received:
    59
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings Received:
    +158
    TOP is a LOT less important than the final score! Let's win both just to be sure!
  16. eastowest
    Offline

    eastowest Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 13, 2007
    Messages:
    2,048
    Likes Received:
    75
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings Received:
    +163
    Very important if your playing a high scoring team like Oregon,Tex A+M or the UF teams of the 90's.I remember teams trying to keep the ball away from SOS teams as much as they could.It also helps you out late in the game if you have a lead........to run out the clock.Less poss.(plays) for the other team means less pts
  17. grumpy_gator
    Offline

    grumpy_gator New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2013
    Messages:
    886
    Likes Received:
    74
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Seattle, WA
    Ratings Received:
    +74
    The fact is that scoring more points than your opponents wins games.

    If you are saying the reason few teams play power-running, ball-control style football is because it doesn't win then I offer you Bama winning 3 of the last 4 NC's.

    Did you have some other reason in mind? Like the difficulty of recruiting the talent and depth necessary to run such an offense?
  18. WarDamnGator
    Offline

    WarDamnGator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2007
    Messages:
    4,757
    Likes Received:
    69
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings Received:
    +463
    TOP and "3 yards and a cloud of dust" are supposed to make for safer ball control offenses, but it seems to be backfiring on us. If we need to run 15-20 plays to score, it just seems to increase our odds of getting a drive killing penalty, sack, or turnover.
  19. SeaCay
    Offline

    SeaCay Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 16, 2008
    Messages:
    1,880
    Likes Received:
    67
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Lake Alice Field
    Ratings Received:
    +283
    Not as important as PoSB.
  20. OaktownGator
    Offline

    OaktownGator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2007
    Messages:
    26,095
    Likes Received:
    2,359
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ratings Received:
    +6,623
    Physically dominating and wearing down your opponent matters. Our 4th quarter dominance last year was directly related to that.

    TOP with the style of game we play is one indicator of whether we're getting that job done.

    Oregon goes about it by running the opposition to exhaustion and limiting substitution opportunities. TOP is meaningless with their approach.

    So whether or not TOP matters depends on what the team is trying to get done.
    • Like Like x 1

Share This Page