Hazard A Guess???

Discussion in 'Awesome Recruiting' started by bbreece1, Jan 13, 2014.

  1. bbreece1
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    bbreece1 Active Member

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    Over the last 5 years what percentage of recruits that the "experts" saw coming to Florida about 3 weeks before signing day, actually came to Florida?? Now I'm not talking about the Griers and guys like that but real problematic individuals with a degree of doubt about destination? I would say less than 30% but no real idea.
  2. 32250Gator
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    32250Gator Member

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    People always remember the ones that get away more than the ones we land.

    Also to be fair in this comparison you'd have to include the guys we land, who we weren't expected to, or trailed for. Tarbor this year, Rollin last, Fowler in 12' and a bunch more
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  3. StrangeGator
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    StrangeGator Well-Known Member

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    I think we get Damien Prince and a bunch of 3 star guys to fill the remaining positions of need. Carter and Jackson are remote possibilities. The other Jackson is probably going to recommit. We will likely finish somewhere between #8 and #10, but the good thing about plan B types is that they are less likely to transfer early on.
  4. RepubliGator84
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    RepubliGator84 Well-Known Member

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    Sound analysis- those plan B types a lot of times have a good attitude and work hard and are good teammates. Can't have a team with all A list guys (though not all A listers act that way)
  5. MyakkaGator
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    MyakkaGator Well-Known Member

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    If I remember correctly, spikes was a 3 star.....stars mean nothing..productive play on the field means everything.
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2014
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  6. atlantagator86
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    atlantagator86 Well-Known Member

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    One of the main reason the recruiting "experts" (at UF and other schools) are incorrect so often is not that their sources are bad or they don't know what they're talking about, it's that kids are telling coaches from multiple schools that they're coming.

    And it's not because the kids are liars, but because so many of these kids don't want to say no. They don't want to disappoint anybody. And in some cases they may not know for sure where they want to go or may want to set up the drama of their public announcement. If they say no or even let a coach know they're leaning somewhere else, they stand the chance of losing their offer. So in most cases, the kids are going to make the coaches believe they're coming and maybe even silently commit up until the very last minute.

    If the coaches believe the kid is coming, that's usually where the "insiders" directly or indirectly get their information in most cases. That's just the way it is.
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  7. gator7_5
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    gator7_5 Well-Known Member

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    Spikes? Lol, he was a man child unanimous 5 star.

    Stars mean alot. Harvin, tebow, spikes, hernandez, dumlap, harvey, Floyd, easley, vh3, etc etc. mvps and 5 stars.

    Then you always get the "but what about Brandon James?" rebuttal, not realizing it only bolsters the stars are meaningful opinion. Brandon never had any meaningful snaps on O or D, and had no chance of playing in the NFL, but was a key special teamer. That's what you expect from a 2 or low 3 star guy and why he gets a scholly.
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2014
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  8. G8torsRUL
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    G8torsRUL Active Member

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    Whos the FSU WR #1 who caught the winning TD in the NC game? He was a 3 star and balled this year.
  9. Briang8r
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    Briang8r Active Member

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    That was Kelvin Benjamin, who I'm pretty sure was a 4 star.
  10. gator7_5
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    gator7_5 Well-Known Member

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    High 4 star. Another great example of how stars matter. lol.

    And before ya'll make another bad guess, Winston was a 5 star and MVP of the elite 11 camp.
  11. Tebowism0823
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    That's why I wish somebody would step up more in the recruits lives to help them through this process easier. Whether it be a parent, grandparent, or a coach. Of course the only issue there is that sometimes hurts the situation. Agree that for the most part these recruits mean no ill will.
  12. NoahBeanBizzel
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    NoahBeanBizzel Well-Known Member

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    I agree, but check out the finalists for a lot of individual postseason awards, and the winners/finalists of those awards (Manziel, Darqueze Dennard, Mike Evans, Aaron Donald and Andre Williams) are full of guys nobody had ever heard of coming out of high school. Even more surprising was looking at the list of Rivals' 100 'backs who became finalists for the award since DMac left Arkansas. I think Trent Richardson was the only one. In fact, Brandon Powell is rated slightly ahead of where Tre Mason was, according to Rivals, as a high school senior.

    While talent is important, finding the right fit(s) for a given system is probably more important than stars, although talent is absolutely essential. The Powell pickup was a good one. We need guys that we can get out on the perimeter in space and tear off chunks of yards; this offense doesn't have many guys like that. And if you're going to utilize zone blocking schemes, which Roper did at Duke, it helps to have a back who read the position of defenders on the side the play is designed to go to, a guy who has good vision (KT has this), and the necessary footwork to make the right cuts if something isn't there.

    And you need an offensive line that is on the same page. Part of what made that '08 attack so dynamic was what both Pounceys gave us when pulling, having the athleticism to get out on the perimeter (often times from the center position) and open up lanes for the firecrackers we had coming out of the backfield. We're going to have to recruit smart linemen with very good footwork to bring Roper's vision to fruition, and Humphries and Green appear to be the only two game-ready linemen we have who possess elite athleticism.
  13. gator7_5
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    gator7_5 Well-Known Member

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    Absolutely agree. I was simply giving my opinion on "The stars don't matter" stance, and how absurd it is. Of course 2 and 3 star players can have great success at the college and Pro level. But, you can NOT win a MNC today with a roster void of 5 star top 50 type players . Period.
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  14. NoahBeanBizzel
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    NoahBeanBizzel Well-Known Member

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    I absolutely agree. And for people who don't agree with that sentiment, all they have to do is look at where each top-ten team has ranked over the last decade or so, along with how they've recruited the previous 3-4 seasons prior to their successful seasons, to see the proof in that reasoning.
  15. atlantagator86
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    atlantagator86 Well-Known Member

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    Stars definitely matter, but people tend to take them way too literally.

    One thing that people need to understand about the star rankings is that they really aren't intended to represent how good a player will ultimately be, but how how high they rank overall coming out of high school. On Rivals, a 5-star is simply ranked in the top 25-30 of the overall player pool. 4 star meant roughly top 300 and 3 star means top 750. That's really all it means.

    The more important thing to look at on Rivals is the player's numerical ranking. That is a much more telling rating of a player's talent. Tabor is our only 6.1 player. We have 10 4-star guys, but only 3 of them are 5.9 and above. Grier and Willis at 6.0, meaning they are just below 5-star, and Jackson at 5.9. The other 7 are all 5.8, which is on the lower end of the 4-star ratings.

    It's also worth pointing out that in these rankings, it's not so much a ranking of a player's expected talent level, but where they are coming into college, meaning the reason a kid may be ranked lower is because they need to add weight or strength or because of non-optimal height.

    But while star rankings are not a guarantee, they do matter. A higher percentage of the 5 star guys are going to pan out than 4 stars. A higher percentage of 4 stars are going to pan out than 3 stars, and so on.

    People can point out just as many 3 star guys that pan out as 5 stars, but that's largely because there are a lot more of them. If 40% of 5 star kids pan out, that's roughly 12. If 10% of 3 star kids pan out, that's 45. But the 5 star kids were still 4 times more likely to pan out than the 3 stars.
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2014
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  16. atlantagator86
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    atlantagator86 Well-Known Member

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    Almost all these kids have someone to do that and they are usually very involved. Problem is that sometimes, that person really isn't looking out for the best interests of the kid.

    In fact, these people have become a bigger part of the problem because coaching staffs have started to focus a lot of their attention on "recruiting" those people around the kids as opposed to the kids themselves. The schools have gotten very good at determining which person around the kid is both most influential and favors their schools and they work very hard on recruiting that person to try to influence the kid. That's part of the reason you sometimes hear maybe a parent pushing one school and a HS coach pushing another.

    I believe that it's the people around these kids that are getting payoffs, jobs, cars or other incentives from boosters to push kids to different schools. It's an easy way to get around recruiting violations because in most cases, the kids aren't getting anything and probably have no idea what's going on. And I'm not even sure that it's really illegal under the NCAA rules and even if it is, it would be almost impossible to prove.

    A perfect example of this, that I thought was pretty obvious was Demarcus Robinson last year. It was pretty evident to me that Robinson's coach was being HEAVILY influenced to push Demarcus to Clemson. His coach was pushing SO hard for Clemson that you could tell he had to have some kind of motivation outside of Demarcus' best interests.

    It's a new age of college recruiting.
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  17. Gatorhall
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    Gatorhall Premium Member

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    Much rather have 5-4 stars instead of 2-3,odds are the higher ranked players will pan out!
  18. MyakkaGator
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    MyakkaGator Well-Known Member

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    I stand corrected..my apologies.
  19. gator_n_sc
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    gator_n_sc Well-Known Member

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    Wasn't mike Evans at texas A&M a low 3 star? Dudes a beast and first round pick.
  20. MyakkaGator
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    MyakkaGator Well-Known Member

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    I believe he was. probably started as a project and with great coaching, the kid became a monster to deal with.. no jump-ball was safe with him.

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