Gleaned from the pages of Phil Steele's magazine

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by mulegator, Jun 10, 2014.

  1. OaktownGator
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    While Mauk is an impressive young talent, Mizzou lost a lot from last year's team. We should be the favorite against them. We should be slight dogs in the other three games based on current projections.
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  2. Wormwood56
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    Agree to a point about Georgia, but I'm not sure about the injury status of the other teams. As for your second paragraph, that was the rationale as to why we were losing to FSU in the 1990s, that they only had to play two games. It was patently false, but one still hears it.

    Is their relatively weak schedule why Alabama is consistently successful? That they get to rest their starters frequently throughout the year? Let's use Alabama, LSU and Florida State. Are all three teams helped by their schedule? Let's compare their 2014 schedules, using last year's W/L records (and subtracting 3 games from a Mid-Majors win total):

    Alabama Opp-----W/L---------W/L--------Florida State Opp-------W/L------LSU Opp

    Auburn.....................12-2................12-1................Louisville...........................12-2..............Auburn
    LSU...........................10-3................11-2...............Clemson............................11-2...............Alabama
    Texas A&M.................9-4................10-3...............Oklahoma State...............9-4................TexasA&M
    Ole Miss......................8-5..................9-4...............Miami...............................9-4................Wisconsim
    Miss State....................7-6..................9-4...............Notre Dame.....................8-5.................Ole Miss
    Tennessee....................5-7..................7-6...............Boston College.................7-6.................Miss State
    Florida.........................4-8..................7-6...............Syracuse...........................4-8.................Florida
    West Virginia..............4-8..................4-8...............Wake Forest.....................3-9.................Arkansas
    Arkansas......................3-9.................4-8...............Florida...............................2-10...............Kentucky
    FAU.............................6-6 (3-9).........3-9...............NC State...........................7-6 (4-9).......La-Monroe
    Southern Miss.............1-11 (0-12)......2-10..............Virginia............................2-10 (0-12)...New Mexico St
    W. Carolina.................0-12 (FCS)......0-12.............Citadel..............................0-12...............Sam Houston

    Total............69-81 (65-85)........78-73.......................................74-78 (69-83)

    How many people here would say that Bama or LSU got a playoff spot because they coasted with a schedule easier than FSU's? If FSU made a playoff spot, how many people would say the same thing about the Noles?
  3. OaktownGator
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    These teams are helped or hurt by the number of tough games they play.

    I don't think looking at last year's schedule tells a good story here because I would expect all of Ole Miss, Miss State and Florida to be better this year... all potentially 9 win teams (the cut off you usually use to identify strong teams).

    But looking at your chart if we evaluate on last year's performance, Bama only plays three 9 win teams. While FSU plays five of them and LSU plays four of them. If SEC teams are really a win better than their OOC counterparts, then Bama has the equivalent of four 9 win teams on their schedule and LSU has the equivalent of five 9 win teams.

    So in other words, Bama has a one game scheduling advantage straight up over FSU and LSU.

    And that doesn't include the physical and mental impact of having more tough games. Bama is at a clear scheduling advantage, although not as much as they sometimes are.

    If you do this exercise with the Gator schedule, we face seven 9 win teams this season (including UGA as a 9 win equivalent team). That puts us at a two game scheduling disadvantage to FSU and LSU and three game disadvantage to Bama.

    Three more tough games. Three fewer games to mentally and physically recuperate. That is huge.
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  4. Wormwood56
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    Oh, I agree. I am sure that there are some ACC teams that stand to be much improved as well.

    True as far as it goes, but the number is slightly less than one. And it is more than offset by the number of EXTREME cupcakes where the bench can play most of the game, getting that valuable experience.

    If that...

    One game constitutes a clear advantage? Not sure I agree.

    Ours is stronger than either Alabama's or LSUs, but we are also saddled by gimmees (I dread to say that after least year).

    Not sure it is that high. It IS higher than any of the three, however. Actually, Kentucky has the highest I have seen thus far, having to play:

    Louisville............12-1
    Mizzou................12-2
    USCe...................11-2
    LSU.....................10-3
    Vandy...................9-4 (probably will have Florida's W/L in 2014)
    Georgia.................8-5
    Miss State..............7-6
    Tennessee..............5-7
    Florida...................4-8 (probably will have Vandy's W/L in 2014)
    La-Monroe............4-9
    Ohio.......................3-9
    Tenn-Martin..........0-12

    Total......................85-68

    Being that Kentucky lost 11 starters, it looks to be another long year in Lexington...
  5. OaktownGator
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    In a race to the football playoff or just an SEC title, a one game advantage is a clear advantage, IMO.

    UK's schedule is a good deal easier than ours.

    Would you rather play #1FSU and #2 Bama both on the road, or top 25ish Louisville on the road and unranked Miss State at home? (pre-season rankings)

    For them, they lose both games either way. For us there's a good chance that's a two game flip from two losses to two wins. Almost certainly worth one win to us, unless we have another nightmare like last year.
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  6. Wormwood56
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    I agree if you're just looking at the top end of the schedule. But looking at it fromo top to bottom shows that we have three HORRIBLE mid-majors/FCS teams, plus Kentucky and IMO, Vandy. Unless we reek, Tennessee should also be weak. That should be six autowins, plus:

    * Mizzou: They lost a TON on defense, which was their weakness. Overall, they lost 15 starters. I think they will be lucky to have a winning record in 2014.

    * Georgia: Dawgs have to replace three OL'men, plus their TE and Aaron Murray. Their defense will be a beast, however, top ten quality. Their defense and Gurshall will get them to ten wins.

    * USCe: One had to watch Connor Shaw often to really appreciate how many third and longs he converted with his feet. They lose three of four starters on the DL, as well as both CBs, and both kickers are gone. This will win with Mike Davis behind their experienced OL and defense, but the defense may be shaky, especially in their first game against Texas A&M

    * LSU: The Tigers will be a lot like the Gamecocks this year, with a running game behind a strong OL, and what looks to be a typical LSU defense.

    * Alabama: Bama loses 13 starters fromo last year's team, but they appear less vulnerable than anyone of having a poor season after losing so many. They lost McCarron but they don;t win with dominant quarterbacks. They do that with strong running, efficient passing and bone-crushing defense. They lose eight starters on defense this year, but the last time they lost eight starters, they finished 5th in total defense.

    I see 6-7 wins (including Mizzou), tossups with LSU, USCe and Georgia, and two losses (Bama and FSU). we take two of those tossups and we win nine plus a 50/50 shot at a bowl game.
  7. OaktownGator
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    Sure, we have some gimme games.

    We would have UK regardless. And Vols and Vandy teams that will probably be mediocre.

    Would our schedule really be better if we had Indiana or Ohio instead of Idaho? It might look better, but it's a difference without meaning, as neither team has a prayer of winning the game if we have an average Gator team.

    Bottom line is that for competitive games, we have probably the toughest schedule in the country. Definitely the toughest among any team projected to finish the season ranked. And it is far, far tougher than most ranked teams' schedules.

    I roughly agree with your assessment of the season, although I wouldn't bank the Mizzou game until I see them play. I think their QB will be a difference maker... a guy that can lift a team to victories against otherwise superior opponents. On the flip side, I think we'll have a shot in Tuscaloosa. They'll be the most talented team we face and have home field, but they lose a lot of experience, and may not have a QB. We'll see.
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  8. Wormwood56
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    Did you get a nervous twitch when you typed this? :D if we are a legitimate top 15 team, then no, but Indiana finiished 5-7 last year, returned most of their starters, and had a top ten offense. I would be concerned about them, that is at least until I am convinced we are the Florida Gators rather than three of the last four teams we put on the field...

    It's among the toughest, sure.

    Mizzou loses the vast majority of their starters, and looking at their recruiting the last five years, I am not sure about their depth. I agree with you about Alabama, but they HAVE proven to me what they can do, even if they put male cheerleaders out there on the field singing Rammer Jammer Yellow Hammer...
  9. mulegator
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    Updated info 20140612
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  10. TheRaid
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    Hey, at least we are projected to move UP to 3rd in the State of Florida, and 7th in the SEC!!! WooHoo! We back!
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  11. mulegator
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    mulegator VIP Member

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    If Steele is right .. we will be much improved from last season. Enough to satisfy the fans and Jeremy Foley? That is the question.
    Personally .. I think we will crack the top twenty. Upsetting Georgia and maybe South Carolina and/or LSU. If we beat all three .. or two out of three .. we're back baby.
  12. garettk
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    General rule of thumb to determine a team's strength of schedule: ask an average fan of that team how many games they watched during the season (in-person or television)
  13. Wormwood56
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    Jeremy Foley? Yes

    Most fans? Yes

    The fans that think winning the SEC East and competing for the MNC is our birthright? No


    Since the BCS Era began in 1998, Florida has had five trips to Atlanta and left with the trophy three times. That is better than most SEC teams. Since 1998:

    School-----------------SECCGs-----------SEC Titles

    LSU....................................5..................................4
    Florida...............................5..................................3
    Georgia..............................5..................................2
    Alabama............................4..................................3
    Auburn..............................4..................................3
    Tennessee..........................4..................................1
    Arkansas............................2..................................0

    Miss State..........................1...................................0
    Mizzou...............................1...................................0
    USCe..................................1...................................0

    Kentucky...........................0...................................0
    Ole Miss.............................0...................................0
    Texas A&M........................0...................................0
    Vandy.................................0...................................0

    Some folks, however, insist on thinking that our standard is this (1992-2000):

    Florida...............................7....................................5
    Alabama............................5....................................2
    Tennessee..........................2....................................2
    Auburn..............................2....................................0
    Arkansas............................1....................................0
    Miss State...........................1....................................0

    Georgia...............................0....................................0
    Kentucky.............................0....................................0
    LSU......................................0....................................0
    Ole Miss...............................0....................................0
    USCe....................................0....................................0
    Vandy..................................0....................................0

    One thing a lot of Gators (and SEC) forget is that the best team in the SEC in both 1993 and 1994 was not Florida, but Auburn, not only by virtue of record, but also by head-to-head scores. They were ineligible due to sanctions, however. There is a lot more parity in the SEC today than there was in the 1990s. Those days are over.
  14. cistern
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    As fun as your numbers are, you don't speak for Jeremy Foley and you don't speak for "most fans". You're simply guessing what he or others might think of a situation that hasn't even come to pass.
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  15. mulegator
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    mulegator VIP Member

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    I gotta agree with the Worm on this one. Some of our Gator Brethren and Sistren are spoiled. To have had only one losing season in 34 years says a lot about our status among the elite of college football. And I want to be at the top as much as anybody. But some of our fans expect national championships every year. Ain't gonna happen.

    The fact that we play one of the toughest schedules in America EVERY FREAKIN YEAR has its pitfalls.
    Last edited: Jun 30, 2014
  16. mdfgator
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    For good teams the top end of the schedule is really all that matters
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  17. cistern
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    Except I wasn't saying Foley or other fans wouldn't be satisfied with xyz. All I'm saying is: he doesn't know what everyone will think and when he answers things on their behalf like this he acts as though he does and it comes off as supercilious.
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  18. OaktownGator
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    You get points for using supercilious correctly on a football board. ;)
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  19. mulegator
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    mulegator VIP Member

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    Do I get points for "sistren" ?
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  20. OaktownGator
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    Preach it to the brethren.... errr. :D
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