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Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by oragator1, Dec 20, 2013.
Good news, probably means the taper picks up steam in January.
good number---lots of it was inventory---which means demand may be up in view of businesses-----but also means next quarter unlikely to be anywhere as high...
Possibly, but even so an increase over years prior.
Hope it keeps moving up.
you know this was the third quarter,r ight? Or do you figure the big Labor Day shopping frenzy did it?
Well as mentioned, a lot may well be attributable to holiday preparatory spending - which would indicate an expectation of higher consumer spending for the holidays.
And if you're in the markets right now, it might be time to take a 6 month break.
My sense of it is that the bull is off and running for several months prior to any major correction. Eventually you are going to need to raise cash. If bonds take a dump I'll move back into them. But for now keep climbing that wall of worry.
The fed announced they were pulling back on QE and the market went up. The last time they discussed it the market went down so it looks like investors are seeing things turn around.
GDP up 4%, unemployment down, taxes won't be raised on anybody making less than $200k /yr and you can keep you health insurance and doctor.
The fed was only going to pull back government support of big business slightly (around 10%). Yet this caused a potential frenzy per the media of the overpaid white Wall Street people living off of the government/bail outs. This story was similar to the hype surrounding the PARTIAL government shutdown.
Well at least we got the GDP over 4%, I'll take it.
if the feds start to taper in january I would stay out of both the bond market and stock market
They've already started.
I'm already OUT!!!
QE Infinity is causing everyone to toss their books into the fire. Nothing is as it seems. I would take that 4% very carefully since most of that is due to 0% interest rates and the more than $1 Trillion the Fed has been pumping into the economy. This was expected although it took far longer than expected. The problem is by the time they get that QE down to 0, they will have spent more than $3 Trillion. Once interest rates go up, then the economy will head back down equally. I'm staying in stocks for a bit longer, and then go to cash so I can buy into CDs as their rates will hit double digits (when? after the 2016 elections).
Sounds like my plan, only substitute bonds for CDs. I think there will be another paradoxical bond rally if the economy starts to sputter again (after bonds tank first, of course).
Nibble on companies with solid fundamentals and a good long term track record. BUT be ready to dump or ride the train down again. The next bubble is out there just hard to figure out when it will pop, it's taken much longer than I expected.
This isn't "spending." And there is no reason to pull back on QE due to economic growth unless that economic growth is accompanied by inflation. As of now, the accompanying deflationary effects (rapid technological innovation, accompanying automation, and globalization) are balancing any major inflationary pressure.
The Fed might pull back on QE, but there really is no reason to do so unless we start to see inflation moving up in any serious manner.