Gator Home Run Watch

Discussion in 'Around the Horn - Baseball & Men's Gator Sports!' started by MadduxFanII, Mar 5, 2014.

  1. MadduxFanII
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    MadduxFanII Well-Known Member

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    Through 13 games, the Gators have one home run, hit by Taylor Gushue back on February 18 against UCF. That's nine games without a long ball.

    Time for a pool! When will UF next hit a home run? Who will be the opponent? Who will hit it: Will Gushue double up, or will someone else join the fun? Will it be a solo shot, or will we have runners on base?

    Exciting times for Gator baseball!
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  2. DoubleDown11
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    DoubleDown11 Active Member

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    I'll say Alonso gets one this weekend.

    I hope people understand there's a very good chance the Gators hit less than 20 homers all season. We have 1 so far and it's not like there's been a bunch of narrow misses either. Hitting 28 as a team last year still had the Gators in the top 100 in the country. More than 30 D-1 teams didn't even break double digits. This is how college baseball works in 2014.
  3. ursidman
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    ursidman Well-Known Member

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    Agree with this. Especially about Alonso - he has already hit a few that if pulled would have been out. OTOH, he goes opposite field so well, I hate to have him trying to go yard. I bet most of his hits have been to right center. Turgeon will yank a few down the line before it is over and the next HR will be by Gushue, Turgeon, or Alonso in order of probability.

    I know the OP was written in jest but I just cannot ridicule amateurs that are trying their hardest. I love baseball and love watching the Gators play it.
  4. MadduxFanII
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    MadduxFanII Well-Known Member

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    It is, to be sure, possible to assemble a solid offense without much home run power. You need to hit for a high average, draw a ton of walks, get hit by a ton of pitches and get on base at a really high clip. It's also good to run the bases well. Home runs make things a lot easier, but a lack of them can be overcome.

    The problem is we've got all the flaws of small ball without the benefits. We're only hitting .251 with a .302 OBP as a team (and while you don't need home run power, a little bit of pop is necessary; a .305 team slugging percentage is just absurd). And we only hit .269 with a .347 OBP last year. And we've never run the bases with any particular alacrity under O'Sullivan.

    We heard a lot of talk around these parts after the two and done in Omaha in 2012 that it was a good thing to move away from a power-reliant offense, that we were too boom or bust and that getting a more small ball-oriented attack would make us more consistent and successful. Well, wind, whirlwind, etc.

    And I don't think it's impossible to hit for power these days. In fact, I would argue that the lack of power nationally creates a tremendous inefficiency a program like ours can exploit with successful recruiting. After all, the 2011 and 2012 teams played in the dead bat era and still pounded the ball.
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  5. gatorich
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    gatorich Well-Known Member

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    Gushue just missed on last night, CRUSHED a ball down the right field line that went just foul. Ball got out of the park quick. After Taylor, I'm not sure we have a consistent HR threat. Admittedly, I haven't watched this team much this year; Alonso may be that guy.
    Last edited: Mar 5, 2014
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  6. gtr2x
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    gtr2x Well-Known Member

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    Unfortunately, i havent had a chance to catch a game yet, but I thought Puk was a HR guy. No?
  7. WESGATORS
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    Puk is tied for 2nd on the team, only one behind the HR leader.

    Go GATORS!
    ,WESGATORS
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  8. apkgator
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    apkgator Premium Member

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    The thing that sticks out to mean is the gap in baserunning between UF and their opponents. UF is 5-9 in stolen bases, opponents are 14-17. Every aspect of those stats are pathetic. Add in UF has had 4 runners picked off and it looks even more ridiculous. I can live with a struggle in homers, but you better execute...run bases well, move runners, sac when needed,etc. UF has not done that.
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  9. gatorjeff20017
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    gatorjeff20017 Active Member

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    I saw it. It was a rocket. I haven't seen any of the guys on the Blue Wahoos (Pensacola's Double-A minor league team) hit the ball any harder than that. Looked like it went foul by a foot of two.
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  10. Gatorgal04
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    Gatorgal04 Lowly Fan VIP Member

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    FYI, they're going to lower the seams on the college ball next year. Expectation is that it will travel an additional 10-20 feet.
  11. gator7_5
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    gator7_5 Well-Known Member

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    And the answer is Gushue. Nice bomb to tie it up in the 9th
  12. MadduxFanII
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    MadduxFanII Well-Known Member

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    Yep, Taylor takes the prize. Enjoy your lifetime supply of shaving cream, Taylor.*

    *Note to the NCAA: this was a joke. Please do not suspend Taylor Gushue.
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  13. ursidman
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    ursidman Well-Known Member

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    Should probably get a double lifetimes supply of shaving cream given it was bottom of the 9th and tied the game.
  14. MadduxFanII
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    MadduxFanII Well-Known Member

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    Indeed. Free shaving cream for the entire Gushue family!
  15. wingtee
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    wingtee Well-Known Member

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    Tobias triple was a rocket. Not sure anyone here saw it.
  16. MadduxFanII
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    MadduxFanII Well-Known Member

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    Hey, if you want to start the "Gator Triple Watch" thread, be my guest.
  17. ursidman
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    ursidman Well-Known Member

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    2 homers for the Gators tonight against Illinois State. Mattson and Turgeon each get their first of the year. Mattson's was a majestic arc into the LF bleachers and Turgeon yanked one with the bases loaded. I believe that is 4 Gator homers for the year.
  18. IowaGator
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    Based on college baseball today it would appear we need to not worry about the homers and focus on singles, doubles and triples.

    From an article in the Omaha World Herald just before the championship series last year:

    >> In its final three years, Rosenblatt yielded 2.45 homers per CWS game. In 2011 and '12 at TD Ameritrade, the average dropped to 0.64 and 0.67. This year, three balls have cleared the wall — 0.25 per game.

    >> The NCAA dialed back the aluminum bats the same year the CWS moved to TD Ameritrade. So home run reductions aren't as simple as changing venues. But in the three seasons prior to 2011, the CWS produced 34 percent more home runs per game than the regular season. Since then, the CWS has produced 43 percent fewer homers than the regular season.

    >> Through 77 regular-season games since 2011, TD Ameritrade has yielded only 29 home runs. That's 0.38 per game, less than half the average college ballpark. Just for comparison, the average major league ballpark in 2012 gave up about two home runs per game.

    >> During the last three CWS at Rosenblatt, 14.8 percent of fly balls went over the fence. The past three years downtown, it's roughly 3 percent.

    >> In 41 CWS games at TD Ameritrade, there have been tense moments, even a few walk-off hits. But no team trailing after eight innings has ever won. The last team to rally in the ninth was LSU during the 2009 championship series at Rosenblatt.

    >> CWS teams are 21-0 at TD Ameritrade when scoring five runs or more. In other words, there has never been a game in which both teams scored five.

    http://www.omaha.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20130622/CWS/706229867/1046
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  19. MadduxFanII
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    MadduxFanII Well-Known Member

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    I think worrying about how to hit in Omaha is a little premature for us right now. And drawing sweeping conclusions about the irrelevance of power based on the limited sample size at one ball park is unwise.
  20. IowaGator
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    IowaGator Well-Known Member

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    I would suggest it is never too early to gear a team to play in Omaha. The Gators will return to Omaha at some point and the team needs to be ready to win in that park.

    The limited sample would matter if it were some run of the mill ballpark. But in this case the sample is the most important park in college baseball. It can be the only stadium in the sample because, as we all know, winning there is most important!

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