Gator Championship chance up to 34% per Nate Silver

Discussion in 'Nuttin' but Net' started by oneatatime, Mar 30, 2014.

  1. oneatatime
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    oneatatime Well-Known Member

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    • Informative Informative x 2
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  2. TampaGatorFan
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    TampaGatorFan Well-Known Member

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    I'd love to face Wisconsin in the final game. Given that we only lost by 6 in their house with half our team out, I think we beat them handily on a neutral court at full strength.
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  3. AndyGator
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    AndyGator Well-Known Member

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    Wicsonsin is playing better ball now than then, as well. I don't think we blowout anyone from this point on.
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  4. slayerxing
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    slayerxing Premium Member

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    [​IMG]

    Just had to share this. Thank you interwebs.
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  5. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    It looks like Michigan's problem isn't only Kentucky, where they have a 45% chance, but Florida/MSU, where they seem to be getting something closer to a 35% chance.
  6. Go2gtr
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    Go2gtr Well-Known Member

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    And all of the chance percentages mean exactly nothing.
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  7. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    Or if it is a really good model, it means exactly 34%.
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  8. StrangeGator
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    StrangeGator Well-Known Member

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    Nate Silver is one of the world's greatest social scientist. Too bad basketball isn't a social science. If his sample was made up of basketball analysts, coaches (excluding those who still have to play UF) and professional players who have watched all these teams, I'd give it a little credibility, but lacking that, Nate is hurting his own reputation by publicizing this irrelevant data. I guess he gets a little bored between election cycles.
  9. GatorRade
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    GatorRade Well-Known Member

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    I think that you are wrong on Nate. He is a statistician, not a social scientist. In fact, most of his history isn't even in elections; it is in....sports. He became famous for his sabrmetric models baseball way before he turned to elections.

    That isn't to say that this is evidence that his basketball models are good, but him being considered a social scientist isn't any evidence that they aren't.
  10. oneatatime
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    oneatatime Well-Known Member

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    after today, if all finalists are considered even, each would get 25% chance of winning.

    the 34% mostly is based on not knowing the opponent in the semifinal. My guess is that it will go + or - 2% depending on what happens between MSU and UConn.

    We will still be the favorite after today, but probably not much over Wisconsin
  11. corpgator
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    corpgator Well-Known Member

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    It is an aggregation of several models.
  12. oneatatime
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    oneatatime Well-Known Member

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    looks like somebody from Arizona hacked into the site...anyway our chances are up to 37 percent
  13. sixoburn
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    sixoburn Active Member

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    Or maybe nate knows something we don't. I bet you can get a good deal in vegas picking zona to win it all right now.
  14. oragator1
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  15. oneatatime
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    oneatatime Well-Known Member

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    Gators 70/30 against UConn and 38% to win it all
  16. corpgator
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    corpgator Well-Known Member

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  17. GatorLurker
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    But they have Michigan State at over 12%. Can I get some of that action betting against Michigan State?
  18. corpgator
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    corpgator Well-Known Member

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    Before today's games, so our % will be a little higher once they put those games in since we get UCONN.
  19. GatorRade
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    We're up at 38% now with a 70% chance over UConn.
  20. corpgator
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    corpgator Well-Known Member

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    Talking about the Massey ratings.

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